Tuesday, July 04, 2023

No wage inflation in India.

"Making monetary policy is often like flying blind due to the lagged information on growth and inflation variables while the use of statistics and consumer surveys reduce the uncertainty and enhance the credibility in managing the policy trade-offs between the desirable and the feasible, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra said." ET. Not really. Just ask the Ministry of Finance which owns the RBI. wikipedia. After all, the present Governor Shaktikanta Das was a Secretary in the Revenue Department of the Ministry of Finance. wikipedia. Now, "Policy positions no longer seem to be based on economics," wrote Puja Mehra. "Instead, economists' public utterances tend to signal a leaning towards personalities or politics, perhaps to get picked for policymaking positions, or seem to vent frustration at getting fired from such jobs." "The government appears to attract cheerleaders who seldom bother to even pretend to be even-keeled. If their words held weight in policymaking, they'd be writing more on government files than in newspapers or on social media." Last week, "four of the world's top central bankers: those of the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan" met "at the annual ECB forum on central banking," wrote Narayan Ramachandran. "If one were to read between the lines, Powell, Lagarde and Bailey seemed to be saying that despite a decline in headline inflation (possibly caused by a greater than expected decline in energy prices), they were more than a bit surprised about how resilient the labor market was in their respective regions. Given this reality, they saw no way to reduce inflation to its target without rates being 'higher for longer'." India has an excess of labor. "In 2022, 1.1 million young Indians applied for the civil services examinations; 573,735 aspirants appeared for it; and a mere 933 candidates made it through," wrote Yamini Aiyar and Rahul k Sharma. "According to the department of personnel and training, 220 million hopeful candidates applied for central government jobs between 2014 and 2021." Out of 235 countries in the world, 220 million people is more than the population of 230 countries. worldometer. In "The grubby lanes of Musallahpur, in Patna," "the cacophony is directed toward a single goal: helping young people land a government job." DH. "When nothing pans out, even the most educated young people must settle for whatever work they can find, be it wage labor in the city or helping around the farm back home." With such enormous competition for jobs there can be no one will dare to demand higher wages in India. In June the RBI held its interest rate at 6.5% for the second time while predicting an inflation rate of 5.1% for the financial year 2023-24. TIE. Not flying blind, as Patra fears. Doing as expected.

No comments: