Sunday, July 23, 2023

Per capita depends on the deflator.

According to the World Bank, "To be a high-income country, Indian citizens must have a per capita income of $13,205 (as per standard set for 2022-23)." TN. To reach this milestone by 100 years of Independence in 2047, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) calculated that, "India's real GDP to grow at 7.6 percent per annum over the next 25 years, raising its per capita GDP of US$2,500 to US$22,000." However, "the best that India has achieved, in terms of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for nominal per capita GDP, over a period of 25 years in the past is 8.1 percent during 1993-94 to 2017-18." Nominal GDP is the "total value of all its consumer and government spending, investments, and exports, minus the value of its exports." Real GDP is derived by adjusting for currency value by eliminating the effect of inflation. Investopedia. So, if the real GDP has to grow at 7.6% then, adding the GDP deflator at 8.3% in 2022 (World Bank), growth of the nominal GDP has to reach 15.9%. However, the best that India has managed consistently over a 25-year period is just 8.1%. To achieve a high growth, the industrial sector has to grow at a CAGR of 13.4%, agriculture at 4.9%, services at 13%, and the nation must "follow a multi-pronged approach to absorb the large pool of labor force productively". Unfortunately, "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metal-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta,...in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chipmaking plans for India." Reuters. A few days back, Tata announced, "Tata Sons will build a 40GW battery cell gigafactory in the United Kingdom (UK). The investment, of over 4 billion pounds, will deliver electric mobility and renewable energy storage solutions for customers in UK and Europe. JLR and Tata Motors will be anchor customers, with supplies commencing from 2026." The UK has raised its rate of corporation tax. "The main rate of corporation tax is 25% for the financial year beginning 1 April 2023 (previously 19% in the financial year beginning 1 April 2022)." PwC. "Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, who has said that Britain will not go toe-to-toe on subsidies, declined to give details on any UK financial support for Tata, but acknowledged Britain's need to attract big projects." Reuters. "Britain has previously expressed concerns over the United States' promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for green industries." India has its own Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for 13 sectors worth $28 billion. wikipedia. Clearly not attractive enough. Meanwhile, "Families view civil services as a pathway out of poverty and towards prestige." The Print. "And so loans are taken and money is squirreled away to feed the great Indian coaching factories, which grind parallel to the country's steel frame that is its bureaucracy." Last year, only 933 made it out of 1.135 million candidates. Per capita means 'the amount for each person'. dictionary. In India, per capita is for very few people. That is a big deflator.

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