Monday, July 10, 2023

High risk, high yields.

"India has now overtaken China as the most attractive emerging market for investing in emerging market debt, said a report by Invesco." TOI. "As per the report, a development sovereign based in the Middle East said, 'We don't have enough exposure to India or China. However, India is a better story now in terms of business and political stability." Nice, but no money where the mouth is (idioms). "In the battle between Asia's two highest-yielding markets, Indian assets look more promising than those of Indonesia." ET. "The Indian currency offers higher compensation for risk than the rupiah, with the carry to risk ratio 2.8 compared with just 0.5 for Indonesia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." Since, yield is inverse of the price, Indian bonds are priced lower and the risk premium is higher. That may be because markets are pricing a much greater probability of higher inflation in India. "The highest bond yields among major Asian nations and a less volatile currency thanks to the central bank's intervention are burnishing the appeal of rupee assets." The RBI tries to keep the rupee from weakening to prevent prices, and inflation, from rising. "India's foreign exchange reserves saw an uptick of $1.9 billion, taking the overall level to $595.1 billion as on June 30, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed." ET. "It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of USD 645 billion. The reserves have been declining as the central bank deploys the kitty to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments." In March 2023, a report by a parliamentary panel on commerce stated that "Despite appropriate resources, the country has not been able to utilise China Plus One via which several international companies moved manufacturing and production away from Xi Jinping's China." BW. "Amidst the heightened global uncertainty, the Indian economy has proved to be more resilient than many large economies of the world, a report from CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) has shown." ET. "Notably, 65 percent of respondents believe that the recent increases in private investment will continue during the current fiscal year." "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metals-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta, it said..., in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chip making plans for India." Reuters. "It isn't just the Vedanta-Foxconn project that has hit a rough patch. A $3 billion proposal that had Israeli foundry Tower Semiconductor Ltd as a tech partner has also stalled, while a third plan is stuck because Singapore-based IGSS Ventures Pte wants to resubmit its application for incentives," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn's decision to pull out of Vedanta joint venture has no impact on India's semiconductor fabrication plant goal, minister of state for electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrashekhar said." ET. He has to save face, after all. General election is nigh.















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