We know the answers, but don't want to know them.

"If we assume that World Bank thresholds and India's income per capita grow at the same pace as they have in the past 30 years, it will take India until 2038 to reach the lower end of the upper middle-income threshold. Similar data crunching reveals that even in 2050, India would be well below Brazil, and South Africa. Korea and China would be in a different league altogether," wrote Salman Anees Soz. Member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Rathin Roy said that India is facing a middle income trap. "Since 1991, the economy has been growing not on the basis of exports but on the basis of what the top 100 million of the Indian population wants to consume," he said. They are maxed out now. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's clarion call for reaching a $5 trillion economy by 2024 may or may not be realised, but a $10 trillion economy in the early 2030s is a near certainty," thinks R Jagannathan. Why is China so much richer? "The difference was the one big thing despotic China got right before 1980 -- much better literacy and health." "At least 25% of school children in the four-eight age group do not have age-appropriate cognitive and numeracy skills, making for a massive learning deficit at a very early stage, according to the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) released on Thursday." 43.2% of girls were enrolled in private preschools or schools compared to 49.6% of boys, when studies have shown that educated mothers have better educated children. A survey by the National Statistical Organisation showed that "only 10.6% of the Indian population aged above 15 years has successfully completed a graduate degree. The proportion is only 5.7% in rural India and is 8.3% among women," wrote Ishan Anand. "India needs very deep reforms and steady growth to even get into the upper middle-income category, which is where the middle-income trap problem typically arises," wrote Ajay Chhibber. Even if we become a $5 trillion economy we will still be low-income. The present drop in the growth rate of the GDP is nothing unusual, wrote Prof A Panagariya. "Since 1991, when systematic economic reforms were launched, the economy has oscillated between periods of high and low growth with the latter lasting two to three years." Our growth rate is never going to reach 7% and above, thinks Ruchir Sharma. "Like every country in the world, India needs to lower its expectations, and to recognise that for low income nations a 5% growth rte is the new benchmark of success." History would agree growth over 5% will be difficult, agreed Vivek Kaul. "That is how brutal life can be in the field of development," wrote Soz. Especially with this lot.

Know your onions before pontificating.

"India's retail inflation accelerated to 7.35% in December on the back of rising food prices." It was 5.54% in November and 4.62% in October. However, core inflation, which takes out volatile food and fuel prices, increased slightly to 3.7%. Wholesale prices rose 2.59% in December compared to just 0.58% in November, again due to a jump in food prices. India is overestimating inflation because households are spending less on food, wrote S Shukla. "This is reflected in a sharp fall in the share of food items by about 10.8 and 9.6 percentile points (pp) to 48.6% and 38.5% in rural and urban areas, respectively, over the last decade." This is based on Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) of 1999-2000 and 2011-12. The government hid the result of the 2018-19 CES probably because, "India's grocery consumption basket shrank by an average of 5 kg per household in the 12 months ended September from the year earlier, although they spent slightly more overall." "In the current bout of inflation, it is the food prices, especially onions, that have caused the trouble and it is not spread across the spectrum and there is unlikely to be second order effect like a spillover," wrote MCG Rangan. Which means that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) was wrong not to cut interest rate in its meeting in December, after having cut it by 135 basis points in 2019. Not just onions, wrote Prof Himanshu. There has been a sharp rise in prices of "almost all vegetables along with cereals (along with wheat and coarse cereals), pulses and personal care items". Onions "have a weight of only 0.64% in the CPI and 0.16% in the WPI". Why are wheat prices so high despite record production? Because, "Government policy has created an artificial scarcity in the market." To give higher returns to farmers in the run up to the general election in May the government bought up 34 million tonnes of wheat. "As of January, total stocks with Food Corporation of India (FCI) stand at 75 million tonnes, 33 million tonnes of it wheat..." when it is required to maintain a buffer stock of 21.4 million tonnes. Because of lack of storage space thousands of tonnes of grains rot every year. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 52.7 in December, the highest in 10 months, while the PMI for services reached a 5-month high of 53.3 in December. Exports fell by 1.8 while imports fell by 8.8% in December, so that the trade deficit fell to $11.3 billion. "India's eight infrastructure sectors shrank for the fourth straight month in November at 1.5%, though the magnitude of contraction slowed from 5.8% the previous month." Prices rising despite fall in demand and a slowing economy. Clearly, economists don't know their onions. Or they have been told.

Not macro or micro, we have muddled economics.

"Successive monetary policy rate cuts may have relaxed short-term bond yields, but the long-term yields have surged, widening the term premium," wrote Surbhi Bhatia. Since yields are the interest the government pays on its bonds, "Interest payments have gone up in recent years, and now account for more than 90% of the fiscal deficit." "Prior to RBI (Reserve Bank) resorting to 'Operation Twist' measures in December 2019, the term premium reached 129 bps (basis points), the highest on record since the global financial crisis." "Operation Twist first came about in 1961 when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sought to strengthen the US dollar and stimulate inflows of cash into the economy." Normally, yields on long-term bonds are higher than on short-term ones. By selling long-term bonds, while buying short-term ones, the central bank twists long-term yields downwards. The RBI conducted its own version of Operation Twist through open market operations (OMO) because, "The RBI slashed key interest rate - repo rate - by 135 basis points to 5.15 percent but banks passed on only a part of it." The lending rate declined by only 49 bps. "The benchmark 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 6.5%, nearly 100 basis points lower than a year ago," wrote Aparna Iyer. This despite the fiscal deficit expected to rise to 3.8% of GDP compared to 3.4% last year. So, the borrowing cost of the government is falling even as it is borrowing more. This does not increase investments because private companies cannot borrow at these rates. The RBI may have twisted the yield curve for the government, "But nothing prepared it and bond investors for the rude shock of inflation," wrote Iyer. Retail inflation for December came in at 7.35%, which led to a rise of 10 basis points on 10-year bonds before settling down to 6 points higher. "Companies must repay an unprecedented 5.9 trillion rupees ($83 billion) of local notes this year, just as corporate defaults spike," wrote Divya Patil. "India's public debt also appears worrying when compared with other emerging economies," and "fiscal deficit levels are among the worst, even without accounting for delayed government payments that have kept the fiscal deficit figures lower than what they otherwise would have been." Faced with a revenue shortfall of Rs 2.5 trillion, "The government is likely to reduce spending for the current fiscal year by as much as Rs 2 lakh crore ($27.82 billion) as it faces one of the biggest tax shortfalls in recent years, three government sources said." What was the point of Operation Twist to bring down borrowing cost if the government dare not borrow any more? Copy the Americans and keep your fingers crossed. Marvelous.

Taxing losses, instead of profits.

"The aviation sector in India suddenly looks a lot like the spooked telecom sector," wrote R Kundu and B Mukherji. Partly it is their fault and partly bad luck. IndiGo and GoAir are struggling to replace faulty Pratt and Whitney (P&W) engines on their Airbus 320neo aircraft while SpiceJet is unable to fly its Boeing 737 Max aircraft which were grounded after two crashes, killing a total of 346 people, due to the faulty MCAS software. When Jet Airways failed, airlines added capacity and decreased prices to capture Jet passengers but, "For the first time since 2008, India's busiest airports - Delhi and Mumbai - have seen a year-on-year dip in passengers in 2019 compared with 2018." Delhi received 19 million international passengers compared to 18 million in 2018 but domestic passenger number fell from 52 million in 2018 to 49 million in 2019, while in Mumbai, domestic passenger number fell from 35 million in 2018 to 33.8 million in 2019 and international passengers fell from 14 million in 2018 to 13 million in 2019. Price of oil has gone up to around $65 per barrel and the weak rupee, which has fallen from 69 to the dollar in July 2019 to around 71 today, have both increased cost. Then there are taxes. "The central government currently charges 14 percent excise duty on ATF (airline turbine fuel). On top of this, states charge up to 30 percent sales tax or VAT..." Plus the taxes on airline tickets and we can understand why passenger numbers are going down. The government could help airlines by reducing taxes and by refraining from arbitrary changes in rules, wrote Amit Kapoor. Unlikely, as the government is nearly bankrupt and is using strong arm tactics to wring as much money out of companies as it can. Telecom companies, struggling to survive, have to pay Rs 1.47 trillion in licence fees, taxes and penalties. They can represent their cases but "in no case the self-assessment and payment of dues are to be delayed", was the threat from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT). Public sector oil companies have been ordered to shell out Rs 190 billion in dividend, 5% more than last year. This is more ransom than dividend. The government is pressuring the Reserve Bank (RBI) to pay Rs 350-450 billion on top of the Rs 1.76 trillion it has already extracted. Naturally, citizens are easy prey. "Every year, the disclosure requirements in the ITR (income tax returns) forms, besides your income and taxes thereon, keep increasing," wrote Gautam Nayak. "In the last five years, income tax return (ITR) forms have started asking for more details to ensure that your spending patterns match your tax return profile," wrote AK Sharma. When the government is the predator people are too scared to spend or invest. "All this clearly tells us that corporate India is clearly not interested in investing at this point in time. Like consumers, they have very little confidence in the economic future," wrote Vivek Kaul. Taxes pay for politicians and civil servants. Rest of us need to pay up.

The simple logic of gold.

"In FY19 (financial year 2019), India imported 983,000 kg of gold, the highest since FY14," wrote Vivek Kaul. Buying gold doesn't make sense because it is taxed at over 15% and there is 5% GST on the cost of making ornaments. Sovereign gold bonds pay 2.5% interest per year, which is taxable, but most people prefer to buy jewellery. The price of gold varies depending on demand, mainly by central banks, falling from $1921 per ounce in 2011 to $1538 today. Also, the hallmarking of gold jewellery is mostly fake in India. So are people idiots to buy gold? After the Asian tsunami in 2004 people in Aceh province in Indonesia "rebuilt their lives using gold they had on their bodies", found Richard Davies. "Gold also acts as a kind of informal insurance mechanism." Presently, India is seeing widespread protests against the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi where people are chanting the preamble of the Constitution. "What is the role of an ongoing popular protest movement in the context of a well-functioning representative democracy such as India?" asked Prof Vivek Dehejia. If the definition of democracy is winning elections by distributing handouts on taxpayer money, then surely India is a democracy. People are protesting against a series of repressive measures against citizens unleashed by this government. "In today's social media world, it is relatively easy to organize a protest, and those who believe in the cause, or those who have nothing better to do (or perhaps some students who prefer bunking classes instead of studying), may well show up," writes Dahejia. That is so arrogant, sanctimonious and contemptuous. "Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts -- and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change," wrote David Robson. It was precisely such leaderless protests, despite attacks by the regime, that brought about the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. The revolution failed because it was hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood which moved toward an Islamic dictatorship. Dahejia thinks that the India Against Corruption movement failed because the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won the subsequent assembly election in Delhi. He forgets that AAP has failed to make any gains outside Delhi and is hanging on here by making extravagant promises. This government has made India a world leader in shutting down the internet to control protests. In its recent judgement the Supreme Court ruled that "freedom of speech and access to information on the Internet on the one hand, and the freedom of trade and commerce on the Internet on the other, are both 'constitutionally protected'," wrote Gautam Bhatia. Internet shutdowns cost $3 billion between 2012 and 2017, and the shutdown in Kashmir since 5 August has cost the local economy $2.4 billion, wrote Neelanjan Sircar. This, together with the cost of police repression, will hurt the economy which is already slowing down. The Congress won just 44 seats in 2014 because of the economy. It's Modi's turn. India is no democracy. That is why Indians buy gold.  

Do only white deaths matter?

After vehemently denying any involvement for a few days, Iran admitted that its armed forces shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, killing all 176 people on board, 63 of whom were Canadian citizens. A theatrically somber Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said, "Shooting down a civilian aircraft is horrific. Iran must take full responsibility." He claimed to be "outraged" and "furious" at the loss of Canadian lives. Trudeau is trying to claim the moral high ground to increase his popularity after losing his majority in last year's election. He is not the first, nor will he be the last, politician to milk some photo-op from a tragedy. "A second-generation political dynast, with little or no training in, nor understanding of, economics, foreign policy or defence, what Trudeau offered the Canadian public in 2015, and what they lapped up until recently, was a political brand high on style and low on substance," was the scathing assessment of Prof Vivek Dahejia. But what about 346 civilians sacrificed by Boeing in its greed for profits? On 29 October 2018, 189 passengers and crew died when Lion Air Flight 610 crashed into the Java Sea 13 minutes after takeoff from Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Jakarta, Indonesia. The main reason was a faulty software, called MCAS, installed by Boeing in its 737 Max airplanes to push the nose of the aircraft down. This caused the aircraft to go into a steep dive which the pilots could not override. Boeing did not ground the faulty planes. On 10 March 2019, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed 6 minutes after takeoff from Addis Ababa Bole International Airport in Ethiopia, killing all 157 people on board. Again the plane was a 737 Max and the MCAS was responsible. Following this crash all 737 Max aircraft have been grounded and Boeing has suspended production of the aircraft. In 2011, "American Airlines, an exclusive Boeing customer for more than a decade, was ready to place an order for hundreds of new, fuel efficient jets from the world's other major aircraft manufacturer, Airbus." To design a new plane would take too long so Boeing re-engineered its workhorse 737, which could be delivered in 6 years. The 737 Max was born 3 months later. A report by Bloomberg claimed that Boeing "increasingly relied on temporary workers making as little as $9 an hour to develop and test software, often from countries lacking a deep background in aerospace". Boeing's own pilot thought that the software was "running rampant" in 2016 and lied to regulators to get airworthy certification for the aircraft. Internal emails show that one employee thought that the aircraft was "designed by clowns". Boeing faces a $5.4 million fine. The CEO Dennis Muilenberg received $62 million in compensation and pension benefits and will receive additional severance pay. For killing 346 people. Do only white deaths matter?

Numbers don't show human faces.

"The poorest, but not the most uneducated, are most likely to commit suicide in India. Data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) shows that daily wage workers, those earning less than Rs 1 lakh (Rs 100,000) per annum but educated up to the secondary level have the highest share in number of suicides in India in 2018." "66% of the 134516 suicides committed in 2018 were by those who had an annual income of Rs 1 lakh or less." "A total of 10,349 farmers and agricultural laborers committed suicide in 2018, a marginal dip from the 10,655 cases in the year before, home ministry data showed." "Experts also pointed to problems in the data, including efforts by states to downplay suicides and tinkering with the definition of farmers that tends to present a watered down version of the picture." "The incidence of farmers taking their own lives has been declining over the years", "Yet, farm suicides serve to draw attention to the sorry state of Indian agriculture, which has lagged industry and services in productivity gains for decades." Data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy's (CMIE)  database that when the price of onions went up the state government banned exports and released stocks to bring down prices, thereby reducing profits for farmers, wrote Roshan Kishore. When prices fall due to abundant production the benefits are not passed on to the consumer. "Not only are vegetable prices more volatile, their producers are also susceptible to predatory behavior by buyers." As in other parts of the world, the rate of suicide is higher in men than in women, but the total number of suicides among women constituted 37% of all female suicides in the world. Which is high even if we consider that India has one sixth of the entire population of the world. However, women are not only killing themselves, they are being killed by men as well. "More women were killed after being raped in 2018 than in 2017." According to NCRB data, "there was a 31% spurt of cases of rape with murder in 2018 as compared to 2017." "Just nine countries around the world, including Syria and Iraq, now have a fewer proportion of working women than India, new official data confirms. And if Bihar were a country, it would have the lowest share of working women in the world," wrote Rukmini S. Since India is a poor country, those who are poor by Indian standards lead wretched lives. "India was ranked 102nd on the Global Hunger Index, an index of 117 countries." For every 100 jobs lost to Artificial Intelligence only 10 new ones will be created and that also not at the same speed. For some the misery is just too much to bear.

All of it was so unnecessary.

Two days back Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 crashed minutes after take off from Imam Khomeini International Airport at Tehran in Iran just after 6 o'clock in the morning, killing all 167 passengers and 9 crew on board the aircraft. There were 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, 4 Afghans, 3 Germans and 3 Britons among the passengers. Captain Volodymyr Gaponenko had 11,600 hours of experience flying the Boeing 737. This particular plane was a 737-800, which has a very good safety record, and was delivered in 2016, making it relatively recent. However, "The most recent audit by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, in 2017, found Ukraine to be below average for licensing, legislation, airworthiness, accident investigation and operations." The entire world took notice of the crash of this plane was because Iran had launched ballistic missiles against two bases in Iraq, with US troops, just hours earlier. Iran claimed it had killed 80 US troops in the strike but the US denied any of its soldiers had been hurt. "The United States had three hours warning of the missile strikes after Iran tipped them off via a European embassy and ensured their plans of an attack were easily detectable, US officials claim." "Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said earlier that Iran's missile attack intended to kill US personnel at Iraq'a al-Asad airbase," but "Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had earlier revealed that Iran had given him a tip-off about the missile strikes, which they were able to pass on and give troops time to seek shelter in bunkers." Now, "Evidence suggests an Iranian missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed near Tehran, possibly in error, Western leaders say." "Video obtained by the New York Times appeared to show a missile streaking across the night sky over Tehran and then exploding on contact with a plane. About ten seconds later a loud explosion is heard on the ground." "The evidence indicates the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a news conference Thursday. "This may well have been intentional." "The thing that is clear to us and that we can say with certainty is that this plane was not hit by a missile," said Chief of Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation Ali Abedzadeh. However, the government admitted its guilt by hastily bulldozing the crash site clear of all debris. In the last few hours Iranian officials have admitted to shooting down the aircraft in error, which western governments have already accepted, probably in a bid to avoid all out war. That does not mean the Iranian government will not have to pay a price. We can expect a spate of class action suits asking for compensation and damages in hundreds of millions of dollars, that Iran does not have. They won't be able to blame the US for that.

We are losers. Don't make it worse.

With the Union Budget to be presented on 1 February 2020, Prof Arvind Panagariya, who was Vice Chairman at Niti Aayog from January 2015 to August 2017, has some advice on how to make the Indian economy grow faster. "After growing at 5% in FY20 (fiscal year 20), the slowest pace in a decade, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will start increasing from the next fiscal year", but "the recovery is likely to be slow and GDP growth will be just above 6% until FY23", said the World Bank. "Even these estimates are optimistic projections and they do not capture ground reality. This is evident from the fact private estimates are already projecting a less than 5% growth in this year too," said Prof Himanshu. Some recommend that "India should allow fiscal deficit to rise 1 percentage point or more", but this would be unwise because "once we add up fiscal deficits of the Center and States and off budget borrowing, public sector deficit turns out to be as high as 8% of GDP". "Outstanding debt of states has risen over the last five years to 25% of GDP, posing medium-term challenges to its sustainability, according to the RBI (Reserve Bank) study," wrote Nag and Dormido. "With the center's finances already under acute stress, we may see cut backs in pace of spending by some of the states," said Garima Kapoor. "The government is likely to reduce spending for the current fiscal year by as much as Rs 2 lakh crore ($27.82 billion) as it faces one of the biggest tax shortfalls in recent years, three government sources said." This year's budget hoped to raise Rs 24.61 trillion from taxes, but it has collected just Rs 11.74 trillion so far, and it hoped to raise Rs 1.05 trillion from sale of public assets, but it has manged to collect only Rs 181 billion till November 2019, wrote Vivek Kaul. No hope of containing the fiscal deficit. Panagariya recommends allowing retail inflation to rise above the 4%, +/- 2%, target set by the government in 2016. "A 2% higher inflation than currently will also help boost tax revenues on the one hand and lower the real lending rate on the other." The government collects tax on the nominal GDP, which grew at 7.53%, the lowest since 1975-76. Increasing inflation will give more money to the government while we get less from our savings. Kill the ordinary family. The government should give up control of public sector banks (PSBs). That is never going to happen. The government uses our savings in PSBs to distribute loans in the hope of stimulating consumption and announce waivers of loans to farmers to win elections. Foreign investors watch spending of tax revenues but they don't care if we lose our deposits. That is why the government is so keen to pass a law to limit deposit insurance to Rs 100,000. Chicken feed. Professors should think before writing irresponsible advice. They are encouraging plunder of citizens. 

When a woman with head injury beat up the police.

"On 5 January 2020, more than 50 masked people armed with rods, sticks and acid attacked the campus of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Delhi and injured more than 39 students and teachers," reads a post at Wikipedia. Although there is heavy police presence in and around JNU, "After attacking residents of the university campus for 3 hours, the mob escaped; none of its members were arrested or detained." The savage mob consisted of both men and women and did not spare blind or physically impaired students. The attack was coordinated on social media sites linked to Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP), which is apparently the student wing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which supports the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has an absolute majority with 303 seats in the Lok Sabha.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi used to be a member of the RSS from 8 years of age. The ABVP claimed "Left-affiliated groups and students from Jamia Milia Islamia" were responsible because "Students of Jamia Milia Islamia indulge in such violence as they did in their campus." Do they? The truth is that while Delhi Police were mere onlookers while the mob wreaked its bestiality on JNU, at 10.30 pm on 15 December, the police stormed Jamia University and mercilessly beat up students and faculty, injuring 125 people. However, the ABVP was forced to accept that two of the attackers carrying sticks at JNU are its members. President of JNU students' union Aishe Ghosh thought she would be lynched when attacked with rods and left bleeding from her head. The helpful police has filed, not one but, two FIRs (first information reports) against Ghosh for manhandling security personnel. Streetlights inside JNU were manually switched off around 6.30 pm and darkness prevailed till 11.05 pm, showing the attack was carefully coordinated. Naturally, "police officials say they have failed to get any CCTV footage because the areas where the violence occurred are not covered by cameras". With violence so widespread sounds a bit thin. Should have blamed the darkness. The Delhi Police is controlled by the Ministry of Home Affairs under Mr Amit Shah who is protected by over 100 police officers, including such things as Z plus, SWAT team and other lethal teams citizens cannot even imagine, God bless him. "The current political regime cannot exist unless it finds a new enemy," wrote Pratap Bhanu Mehta. "It now legitimises itself, not by its positive accomplishments, but by using the enemy as a rallying point." As in Delhi, so in Uttar Pradesh (UP) where too the BJP has absolute majority. The reaction of UP Police to peaceful protests "was more in the manner of police in Sudan, Iraq or Iran, rather than in modern societies like France, Spain or Lebanon where the norm has been a response of proportionate force and avoidance of any hint of collective punishment", wrote Manoj Joshi. When a regime with a huge majority in parliament uses the police to help goons to beat up peaceful protesters it must have doubts about its survival. Is it perhaps a beginning of the end?

Not possible to beware of false prophets.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at 5% in FY20, a 11-year low, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said in its first advanced estimate released on Tuesday. The forecast is even more worrying on the revenue collection front, as nominal GDP growth is expected to fall to 7.5%, the lowest since FY76." "The slowdown is a result of deceleration in both private consumption and investment. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow at 5.8%, the lowest since FY14, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) growth, a metric of investment activity has collapsed to less than 1%, the lowest since FY03." "As per the 'Key indicators: Household Consumer Expenditure in India' survey conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the average monthly spending by an individual fell to Rs 1,446 in 2017-18 from Rs 1,501 in 2011-12, down 3.7 percent." "India's grocery consumption basket shrank by an average 5 kg per household in the twelve months ended September from a year earlier, although they spent slightly more overall." "Both in GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA), it is only government-related heads -- government final consumption expenditure and public administration, defence and other services -- which have shown higher growth than last year, which suggests that the entire private sector is caught in the slowdown." Should be easy, just increase government spending. "The government is likely to reduce spending for the current fiscal year by as much as Rs 2 lakh crore ($27.82 billion) as it faces one of the biggest tax shortfalls in recent years, three government sources said." One day back, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged private industry to invest "in a transparent environment without fear, without hindrance". But, a couple of days before that he urged tax officials to meet their collection targets despite a cut in corporate tax rates. Corporate tax rate was slashed by 10% in September, which means tax officials have to extort 10% more in taxes in a falling economy. No one wants to write a final letter like VG Siddharth, which said, "There was a lot of harassment from the previous DG income tax..." "While investors appreciate lower tax rates, tax certainty plays a crucial role, especially as tax disputes can be locked up in courts for years together," wrote Lubna Kably. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled a plan to invest Rs 102 trillion in infrastructure projects in the next 5 years. But projects are never completed on time, wrote N Ramachandran. "This inability to deliver large-scale projects, even allowing for reasonable delay is not a recent Indian phenomenon." "This delivery deficit is not restricted to technically challenging projects such as Zoji La and Chenab. The Kathipara junction flyover in Chennai, a simple grade separator, took nearly 10 years (with eight overflow years and repeated cost overruns) to reach completion." "Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves." If only we could.   

Not safe to be a citizen.

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been taken unawares by the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and its "surprise, poor-judgement and combative style" have led it to "use disproportionate force against peaceful protesters", wrote Nitin Pai. Opponents of the government have fanned protests by portraying it as anti-Muslim, although the Act only seeks to protect those fleeing genuine religious persecution in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, which are Muslim countries and, therefore, Muslims cannot face religious persecution there. If Rohingyas from Myanmar are to be included, why not Shias in Saudi Arabia, Kurds in Turkey or Sunnis in Iran? The government in Uttar Pradesh (UP) responded with excessive force, with videos showing "wanton force unleashed by UP police, deliberately destroying private vehicles, shops and mercilessly beating all and sundry including onlookers", wrote Manoj Joshi. Indians are used to being killed by the governments they elect. In 2017, police shot six farmers dead in Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh (MP) who were merely asking for higher prices for their produce so that they could repay their debts. After initially denying it, MP Home Minister had to accept that it was the police who had done the killing. "Farmers of MP are peace-loving. They do not indulge in violent activities," said Rural Development Minister Narender Singh Tomar. If the farmers are "peace-loving" why were they shot? "There is a conspiracy behind this entire incident," assured the minister. Perhaps, the 11,000 farmers who had committed suicide in MP in the nine years leading up to 2017 were also conspiring against the government. Last year, 9 people were shot dead in Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu for protesting against a copper plant which, they suspected, was poisoning the ground water. For months after the shooting, women and children were being terrorised by the local police who would break into houses in the middle of the night looking for men to beat up. In 2011, police in Delhi brutally attacked anti-corruption protesters who were sleeping at night. A woman died of a broken back. Different states, different political parties, same result. Following a split decision in Maharashtra election President's rule was lifted at 5.47 am and a BJP government sworn in by the Governor at 8 am. The government lasted for only 80 hours, following which a coalition government has been formed. What about the voter. "She voted for one combination and one ideology, but got a different combination with a fluid ideology," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "This is not new in Indian politics; for years, elections have become convenient instruments for a power grab, regardless of the nature of the mandate." "This government has mastered the politics of distraction," wrote SD Shangvi. "The politics of distraction ultimately makes way for the politics of thuggery; you will do what we say or we shall make you." That is what thugs do. Citizens can't.

Inequality of wealth, or equality of poverty?

"GDP is actually a complex statistic shaped by history strewn with errors, unresolved controversies, and changing methods and definitions. The core problem is that GDP is not a measure of economic welfare, but rather of output," wrote Mark Cliffe. "A related problem is that more money does not always make people happier. In part, this is because people are concerned about their status and may be content with less money so long as they have more than others." The median annual income in the US was $61,372 in 2017 which is just a tad lower than the optimum income for happiness at $75,000 per year. An income of $95,000 was found to be ideal as it took away any anxiety of hardship in case of emergencies, presumably accidents and health problems. Meritocracy makes people unhappy because of the intense competition to prove themselves, said Yale Law professor Daniel Markovits. Does it mean that a genius should pretend to be an idiot to be happy? Would Isaac Newton have been happier had he eaten the apple that fell on his head instead of discovering gravity? Research has shown that teaching mothers of poor families to talk to their babies makes the babies smarter. Parents who are well off talk to their babies much more than poor parents do, but should we stop them to make all babies equally dumb? "OK Boomer" is a phrase that the younger generation uses to show its frustration at a slowing global economy, destruction of environment and climate change. "OK boomer is meant to be cutting and dismissive. It suggests that the conversation around the anxieties and concerns of younger generations has become so exhausting and unproductive that the younger generations are collectively over it." From SAT and College Board data in 2016, 15,000 of the students who scored 750 or above, which is the median for Ivy League colleges, had professional parents, said Markovits. For students whose parents had not graduated from high school the number was just 32. Finland has the most equal education system in the world where rich and poor students attend the same schools and yet not everyone is a billionaire. Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton, with Anne Case of Princeton University, researched "widening inequalities between the less and well educated in the US" and found a "growing divergence in wages, labor-force participation, marriage, social isolation, pain, alcoholism, drug deaths and suicides". Surely, Deaton knows it was a Democrat President Bill Clinton who deregulated the financial sector by getting rid of the Glass-Steagall Act and rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act, which along with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, could have led to the subprime crisis. Finally, in the socialist paradise Venezuela "the IMF estimates that GDP fell by another 35% in 2019, which implies a 65% contraction since 2013. Inflation is currently running at some 200,000%". President Nicolas Maduro is hanging on to power with the support of the army whose officers are terrified of being imprisoned for drug smuggling if he loses power. At least capitalism produces wealth, socialism produces poverty. Is it better if everyone is poor? 

All terrorism is bad, especially tax terrorism.

"Retailers and consumer goods companies said sales in the October-November festive quarter had been the best in past four years on account of 'pent-up demand', a buoyant stock market, wider availability of consumer credit at 0% interest, and the harsh winter in the North that triggered sales of heating products and winter wear." "India's manufacturing industry expanded at its fastest rate in ten months in December with solid rise in factory orders boosting production growth at the end of 2019, a private survey showed on Thursday." Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that this is the best time to invest in India. "I am eager to give a picture of some positive changes happening in India today. I say this with full confidence, this is the best time to be in India," he said. Foreigners don't agree. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken many steps to support Indian entrepreneurs' dynamism but the reforms suddenly stopped halfway due to shift in focus to political matters, which is negatively impacting the economy, according to eminent French economist Guy Sorman. Currently, he said that both local and foreign investors are frightened and do not want to invest in India." They are going to get terrified now that, "India's Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts." This is an invitation to extreme tax terrorism which claimed the life of Cafe Coffee Day founder VG Siddhartha in July last year. "While the tax cuts that have been carried out are welcome, on the more vital front of providing tax certainty, India is not only a straggler but has actually been slipping," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times. At the same time, "India is likely to unveil steps to curb imports of several non-essential items such as steel, furniture, electronic items and consumer durables this week. Food items such as nuts and fruits could also be on the list." Customs duty on gold was raised from 10% to 12.5% in the budget. Including 3% Goods and Services Tax (GST), the total tax on gold has risen to 15.5% which makes smuggling from Myanmar even more lucrative. "India has an abundance of mineral deposits," wrote Amit Kapoor. "However, as of 2017-18 the mineral sector (minus petroleum and natural gas) accounted for merely 1.53 percent of the country's GDP." It is 8% of GDP for South Africa and Australia. After nearly 6 years of Modi, "Maharashtra saw a steep rise in farmer suicides last November -- 300 cases that month -- the first time in four years." India will struggle to achieve even 5% growth in 2020, according to US economist Steve Hanke. You cannot strangulate the economy and ask others to invest. They can see it gasping.

Is Iran prepared to take the plunge?

"Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed early on Friday in an air strike on their convoy at Baghdad airport, an Iraqi militia spokesman told Reuters." This confrontation started when, "A US civilian contractor was killed and several service members and Iraqi personnel injured Friday in a rocket attack on a base in Iraq, military officials said." The US blamed the rocket attack on an Iranian backed militia Kataib Hezbollah. "US airstrikes targeted at least five locations of the Iraqi-based militia Kataib Hezbollah. The Pentagon says three targets were in Iraq and two in Syria. Kataib Hezbollah is closely linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps." At least 25 militia were killed in the strikes. Following the airstrikes hundreds of protesters attacked the US embassy in the highly fortified Green Zone in Baghdad. Protesters burned a guard room and damaged property before withdrawing. Attack on the embassy would have been taken very seriously by the US establishment because the US has not forgotten the attack on the US embassy in Tehran in 1979 when over 60 Americans were taken hostage by Iranian students. President Jimmy Carter lost his re-election to Ronald Reagan by a landslide in 1980. President Donald Trump warned Iran of serious consequences for attacking the embassy to which Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei taunted that the US "can't do anything". Khamenei may have been assured by Trump's reluctance to risk lives of US soldiers in an all out war with Iran. In June, Iran shot down a US drone but Trump decided not to retaliate so as not to inflict casualties. In September, Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, claimed a large scale drone attack on two refineries in Saudi Arabia. The US blamed Iran which denied responsibility. "I'm somebody that would like not to have war," said Trump after the attack. The attack on the embassy in Baghdad may have been an insult too far for Trump. With its economy collapsing under sanctions imposed by Trump, Iran unveiled a "budget of resistance" in December. In November, protests broke out at 719 locations against a hike in the price of fuel, wrote Saeed Ghasseminejad. Over 1,000 protesters were killed by the government. In October, Soleimani "instructed his top ally in Iraq Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other powerful militia leaders to step up attacks on US targets in the country using sophisticated weapons provided by Iran". Although Soleimani has been a target of the US for decades past presidents were too scared to take him out so he must have thought that he is immortal. "He (Soleimani) said, 'Gen Petreaus, you should know that I, Qassem Soleimani, control the policy of Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan,' Petreaus said." So he came into Iraq as though he owns it. No more. Iran has vowed "harsh retaliation" against the US. Is Iran prepared for an all out war with the US, which will surely be supported by Israel and Saudi Arabia? Or is it just talk?

Is it a deliberate misunderstanding?

"Dishonesty and perverse logic have marked the rhetoric and protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA)," wrote an angry R Jagannathan. This Act is meant to protect those who were "forced or compelled to seek shelter in India due to persecution on the ground of religion" in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. As these are Muslim majority nations, Muslims cannot seek citizenship under this Act. There were no protests when 3 other decisions preceding the Act protected non-Muslim immigrants and allowed them the right to buy real estate in India. When the police reacted violently to protests at Jamia Milia Islamia University in Delhi students and activists in other parts of India also started protesting in solidarity. Around 20 protesters have been shot dead in Uttar Pradesh where Chief Minister Yodi Adityanath promised to take revenge on those who resort to violence. "All properties of those involved in damaging public assets will be seized and auctioned to compensate for the losses," he said. "We will take badla (revenge)," "It's not the first time Adityanath's administration has been accused of violence since he took office," wrote Nilanjana Bhowmick. The fact is that minorities suffer "state sponsored discrimination in Pakistan and Afghanistan" and Bangladesh has seen its "Hindu population reduce from 21-22% in 1951 to around 8% of the total now". The Act fast-tracks non-Muslims for citizenship but does not stop Muslims from applying to become citizens. Pakistani singer Adnan Sami was given citizenship in 2015. Sami has supported the Act but his son has chosen to be a citizen of Pakistan although he has grown up in India. "The real problem with the CAA is not that it is unconstitutional, but that it has shone a light on the persecution of Hindus and other minorities in three Muslim-majority countries. There is an unstated consensus in 'secular' India that the persecution of Hindus by Muslims will always be underplayed in order to spare the feelings of our own minorities," wrote Jagannathan. The architect of the Constitution Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar said, "I would like to tell the Scheduled Castes who happen to be impounded inside Pakistan to come over to India by such means as may be available to them." Scheduled Castes are known as Dalits today. He added that Nehru suffered from Muslim mania and his heart was pitiless to the Scheduled Castes. Protesters are respectable citizens and not "urban Naxals", as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, or "Pakistani", as some police officers have said, wrote Sagarika Ghose. "In UP, instead of disciplinary action against excessive policing, the government has responded by repeatedly imposing Section 144, preventing public gatherings." Ironically, Section 144 was enacted by the British to subjugate Indians. Ironic that Indian citizenship is being authenticated by an anti-Indian law. The good thing is that the violence against citizens is not selective. That makes India secular.

Ghosn showed it is still possible to beat the system.

Whistleblower Edward Snowden tweeted an excerpt from an article in the New York Times which showed how "every step we take all day, every day, is being tracked by multiple organizations". Every smartphone "connects to nearby cellular towers and WiFi, which have a fixed position on the map. This, in turn, can be use to determine the location of the phone itself." Internet companies, such as Google, Facebook and Microsoft, kept creating "products that empowered customers and the government cheered them on", wrote Roger McNamee. However, after 9/11 attacks, "The US intelligence community collaborated with leading digital platforms, starting with Google, to gather massive stores of personal data". "The tech industry's cozy relationship with President Barack Obama's administration protected it from scrutiny while it perfected what Shoshana Zuboff of Harvard Business School calls 'surveillance capitalism'." Amazon "has offered facial-recognition products to law-enforcement agencies" and is using "its Ring line of smart doorbells to broker cooperation with local police departments". However, even as we move towards the total surveillance world of George Orwell's 1984, in a thrilling example of human ingenuity, three days back, former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn escaped from Japan, where he was held on allegations of corruption, to Lebanon, where he is a hero. "I am now in Lebanon and will no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese hostage system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant, and basic human rights are denied, in flagrant disregard of Japan's legal obligation under international and treaties it is bound to uphold," Ghosn said in a statement. He is right. Japanese prosecutors kept discovering evidence of financial misconduct in little instalments with, what seemed to be, a most dishonorable and deceitful intention of keeping him in prison where he was interrogated everyday without the presence of an attorney, was not allowed to speak to his wife and was not allowed bail. His inhumane treatment "sparked international criticism of Japan's 'hostage justice' system, which permits prosecutors to re-arrest suspects over separate allegations and keep them in detention for long periods with the aim of extracting a confession". "More than 99% of criminal cases in Japan end in a conviction, with most secured through a confession." He was smuggled out in a case for a musical instrument, planned and executed by a security firm from Lebanon. Whether he is guilty as charged or is a victim of a conspiracy, Ghosn has given us hope that it may still be possible to defeat the surveillance system that threatens our liberty and has given a bloody nose to the barbaric legal system in Japan. He is indeed a hero.         

Dreams are fine, mirage can be dangerous.

"India is expected to overtake Germany to become the fourth-largest economy in 2026 and Japan to become third-largest in 2034, according to a recent report by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). It further said India is also set to reach a gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 5 trillion by 2026, 2 years later than the government's target." So keen is the government on the mirage of a $5 trillion economy that, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday unveiled Rs 102 lakh crore of infrastructure projects that will be implemented in the next five years as part of the government's spending push in the infrastructure sector." This amounts to about $1.5 trillion or more than half the GDP of $2.7 trillion. "The minister said another Rs 3 lakh crore of projects are likely to be added to this pipeline. These projects are on top of Rs 51 lakh crore spent by the Centre and the states in the last six years..." A deluge of spending, but where is the money? "The government is unlikely to complete the privatization of Air India Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) and Container Corp of India Ltd (Concor) by end March, leaving a Rs 40,000-50,000 crore hole in the budget. This is likely to further impair the government's ability to meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP, in a year where both direct and indirect tax collections have been well below expectations amid an economic downturn that has hit a six-and-half-year low of 4.5% in September quarter," wrote AR Misra. The government can increase its fiscal deficit by borrowing more but this may decrease private borrowing. "Evidence from India reveals that government investment actually 'crowds in' investment as these are made for the development of physical infrastructure," wrote Karan Bhasin. "Our fiscal deficit is 80% interest." Will the enormous spending on infrastructure increase GDP growth rate? "No. Growth needs a boost urgently. Spending on long-gestation projects on highways and railways will not help," wrote Puja Mehra. Increasing social payments to the rural population will stimulate growth by increasing demand. Finance Ministers cannot resist populist programs and, "This time round, spending plans are being worked out amid fervent calls for fiscal expansion to haul the economy out of its slump," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Trouble is, "Indian states run their own deficits too, after all, and the difference between the Center's intake and outgo is wider than it looks on paper because several government-run entities have also been operating beyond their means." India has gained from low oil prices and an inflow of funds from foreign portfolio investors because of low interest rates in rich countries, wrote Joshi and Tandon. However, as long as the global geopolitical situation remains volatile we must guard against external shocks. In short, itsy-bitsy changes are fine. Just don't splash out. 

Will African countries overtake India economically?

"...According to the International Labor Organisation (ILO), African countries had some of the lowest unemployment rates in 2018," wrote Celestin Monga. "The reality in these countries, however, is that almost everyone must have work to survive because governments have limited capacity and no fiscal space to support social security nets." On the other hand, there is no shortage of welfare schemes in India, to which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has added a long list of his own. "Economists complained about the BJP not merely continuing the Congress' welfare schemes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, the right to food and the right to education, but actually increasing the number of schemes, budgetary allocations and the importance the government was giving them..."wrote Prof Ila Patnaik. But, Modi won election by distributing something to the poor through "various pradhan mantri schemes". The UN expects Africa's "working age population (those aged 15 to 64) to double to 1.5 billion by 2050". India already has a population of over 1.3 billion, of which over 730 million are between the age of 15 and 64 years. The unemployment rate fell to 7.48% in November from 8.45% in October but the labor force participation rate also fell to 42.37% which means millions have stopped looking for work. Ominously, at 13.2%, unemployment was highest among graduates and above, while it was lowest among the illiterate. With so many unemployed and under-employed (those who find work for less than 30 hours per week), "employment has remained overwhelmingly informal" in Africa. Over 50% of Indians are self employed. "Our massive self-employment is not some over-weight entrepreneurial gene among Indians; the poor cannot afford to be unemployed so they are self-employed," wrote Manish Sabharwal. India has 63 million enterprises while the world's largest economy the US has 22 million. "African governments often tried to replicate the capital-and technology-intensive industries of high-income countries." It is misguided, which is why many African countries "commodity dependent and job-scarce". In India, "More than 80% of employment is generated by small enterprises in the unorganized sector," wrote Ejaz Ghani. "Small entrepreneurs are important to India's jobs, structural transformation, gender equality, and inclusive growth." Modi wants to formalize the economy because he wants to collect more tax so he resorted to demonetization which decimated the unorganized sector, wrote Andy Mukherjee. India has lost the opportunity to grow its economy at faster rates. Just 8 out of 200 economies are on track to grow at 7% this year and most of these are small economies in Africa, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "For emerging nations, such as India, 5% is the new 7%, the appropriate aspirational standard." Africa could overtake India. Probably will. 

Governments also have to pay their debts.

"Until the financial crisis of 2008, government bonds were the traditional haven for investors," wrote Satyajit Das. "In any future crisis, sovereign debt will be propagator of risk rather than a refuge. Government debt has reached levels not seen outside of major wars. In advanced economies, it has risen to more than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP), from around 70% before 2007." "The problem is the perceived credit worthiness of countries. A downward re-rating of a nation's ability to pay its debt threatens sharp rises in yields and accompanying declines in bond prices, along with a depreciation in the currency." The International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to be edging away from the Washington Consensus of free floating currencies, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. After the crisis of 2009, "Easy monetary policies in the developed world encouraged 'carry trade' -- cross-border investment in search of higher yields. Capital flooded into emerging economies with higher domestic interest rates. The Brazilian finance minister called it a currency war." Capital flows could reverse suddenly as in the 'taper tantrum' of 2013, leaving emerging nations in crisis. Cheap money helps the rich so the "World's richest gain $1.2 trillion as bizarre fortunes flourish in 2019." "When asset prices do not reflect underlying fundamentals, the convergence happens invariably through violent corrections and crashes in the asset markets, rather than through economic fundamentals improving," wrote Nageswaran. "As the Financial Times noted, the fear is the absence of fear itself (19 November 2019)." Countries are banning short-selling of stocks which is the only way for price discovery. "The global outlook remains precarious with a synchronized slowdown and uncertain recovery," wrote Chief Economist of the IMF Gita Gopinath. "Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town. It should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available, and policy is not already too expansionary." "After half a decade of negative interest rates, one of the biggest Nordic pension funds is wondering whether this is just the beginning," wrote Kati Pohjanpalo. With no returns Mikko Mursula is having to adjust its portfolio. "The steps he's taken so far have led away from easy-to-sell assets, as liquidity becomes a luxury of a bygone age. It's a way to preserve returns, but also means the pension industry is delving into much murkier assets classes that might prove hard, or very time consuming, to offload if markets turn." Meanwhile, fund managers in the US are more optimistic as there are signs of easing of the trade war between the US and China. In a connected world if one corner goes down it will drag the rest down with it. 2020 will provide the answer. But, will we like it? 

Who is a citizen? Who decides?

"The Rapid Action Force has filed a complaint against 1,000 unnamed protesters for violence at Aligarh Muslim University during the anti-CAA stir on December 15, a senior officer said. The force also admitted using rubber bullets, stun grenades, tear gas and chilli shells to control the mob, reports Anuja Jaiswal." This is in addition to, "Police have already filed two FIRs and arrested 52 people, including 7 AMU students, who were booked along with 1,200 to 1,300 unidentified persons." FIR stands for 'First Information Report' but actually consists of charges filed by the police. CAA is the Citizenship Amendment Act which will offer citizenship to people fleeing religious persecution from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Muslims cannot claim persecution since these countries are Islamic. The government also proposes to set up a National Register of Citizens (NRC) which will weed out illegal immigrants who will be repatriated to their countries of origin. The government is worried about large numbers of Rohingyas who have illegally settled in the Jammu and Kashmir region. They claim to be refugees but Rohingya terrorists are fighting for Pakistani terror groups in Indian Kashmir. "When the British decided to establish two separate wings of Pakistan on either side of a partitioned India, the Rohingya began attempting to drive Buddhists out of the Muslim-dominated Mayu peninsula in northern Rakhine. They wanted the Mayu peninsula to secede and be annexed by East Pakistan," wrote Prof Brahma Chellaney. When the Myanmar army thwarted their plans they formed Jihadi groups and have been staging terrorist attacks ever since. The Rohingya are "not only a threat to Bangladesh but also to regional security", said Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. One of the provisions of the NRC Bill is that anyone born in India between 1950 and 1987 is a citizen. But how do you prove you were in India during that period? People just after independence do not have birth certificates and a poor illiterate person cannot show school certificate or ownership of property. Since Hindus and others, such as Christians and Sikhs, are protected, Muslims are afraid of being deported if they cannot prove citizenship. The government has gone on the offensive. Sixteen people died in the protests in UP, 14 of them were shot. But the police claim that, "In most cases, autopsy reports suggest that the victims died in firing by protesters." The UP government is seizing properties of protesters against the CAA, and Muslim women in UP have alleged that police forcefully entered their homes, beat them with sticks, broke all their possessions and stole money and jewellery. Accusing protesters of being vandals, the UP government is to put up posters of 'suspects' in Delhi and Kerala. Filing FIRs against thousands of unidentified people means police can pick up anyone, file any charge and that person will be fighting a court case for years to prove innocence. Seizing assets without proving guilt in a court of law is illegal, according to most lawyers. Rights come with duties, reminded the Prime Minister. True. But what about the duty of the state to protect its citizens. Dare we ask?