Saturday, January 04, 2020

All terrorism is bad, especially tax terrorism.

"Retailers and consumer goods companies said sales in the October-November festive quarter had been the best in past four years on account of 'pent-up demand', a buoyant stock market, wider availability of consumer credit at 0% interest, and the harsh winter in the North that triggered sales of heating products and winter wear." "India's manufacturing industry expanded at its fastest rate in ten months in December with solid rise in factory orders boosting production growth at the end of 2019, a private survey showed on Thursday." Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that this is the best time to invest in India. "I am eager to give a picture of some positive changes happening in India today. I say this with full confidence, this is the best time to be in India," he said. Foreigners don't agree. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken many steps to support Indian entrepreneurs' dynamism but the reforms suddenly stopped halfway due to shift in focus to political matters, which is negatively impacting the economy, according to eminent French economist Guy Sorman. Currently, he said that both local and foreign investors are frightened and do not want to invest in India." They are going to get terrified now that, "India's Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts." This is an invitation to extreme tax terrorism which claimed the life of Cafe Coffee Day founder VG Siddhartha in July last year. "While the tax cuts that have been carried out are welcome, on the more vital front of providing tax certainty, India is not only a straggler but has actually been slipping," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times. At the same time, "India is likely to unveil steps to curb imports of several non-essential items such as steel, furniture, electronic items and consumer durables this week. Food items such as nuts and fruits could also be on the list." Customs duty on gold was raised from 10% to 12.5% in the budget. Including 3% Goods and Services Tax (GST), the total tax on gold has risen to 15.5% which makes smuggling from Myanmar even more lucrative. "India has an abundance of mineral deposits," wrote Amit Kapoor. "However, as of 2017-18 the mineral sector (minus petroleum and natural gas) accounted for merely 1.53 percent of the country's GDP." It is 8% of GDP for South Africa and Australia. After nearly 6 years of Modi, "Maharashtra saw a steep rise in farmer suicides last November -- 300 cases that month -- the first time in four years." India will struggle to achieve even 5% growth in 2020, according to US economist Steve Hanke. You cannot strangulate the economy and ask others to invest. They can see it gasping.

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