Getting elected should have been the beginning, not the end.

"Was Obama a Transformational President?" asks Professor David Greenberg, writing in Politico, which has been an ardent admirer of Barack Obama. What is a 'transformational' leader? "In contrast to 'transactional' leaders, who serve their constituents' interests as best as they can in exchange for political support (and leave the constituents essentially unchanged), transformational leaders bring their constituents aboard a moral or spiritual project, revising in some fundamental sense who they are," writes Greenberg. In the way that FDR, LBJ, Ronald Reagan or even Bill Clinton did. LBJ was from Texas, a racist who openly addressed blacks as 'niggers', who got Congress to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964, smashed Jim Crow laws of the South, and tackled poverty by starting Medicare and Medicaid programs, which are in effect to this day. Greenberg finds similarities between Clinton and Obama, both Democrats, struggling with a hostile Congress, but the difference was foreign policy. " Where Obama broke from the Clinton script was in foreign policy, and not, alas, for the better," writes Greenberg. For those of us who live outside the US his foreign policy was a disaster. He used drones in thousands of extrajudicial killings. In 2014 the government admitted in a court filing that 469,000 people had been included in a database of "known or suspected terrorists", which means they were all fair game. Chilling. The newly created state of South Sudan is locked in civil war. Obama confessed that the aftermath in Libya was the "worst mistake" of his presidency, but insisted that it had been "the right thing to do". It is shocking that he learnt nothing from the disaster in Iraq consequent to the removal of Saddam Hussein. If this was a 'cerebral president' give us Donald Trump any day. At least we know what we are getting. If we don't he will let us know on Twitter. The Iran deal is suspect in many people's eyes as it allows Iran to certify its own program. If Iran is not making nuclear bombs why is it guarding its Fordow enrichment facility with S-330 anti-aircraft missiles, bought from Russia? Obama's classification of 'good terrorists' and 'bad terrorists' is plain stupid and his support for the rebels in Syria not only prolonged the civil war but resulted in the deaths of 300,000 people, and a flood of refugees into Europe, which could mean Angela Merkel losing in German elections and Marine LePen becoming the President of France. For all his talk he could not resist the temptation of 'regime change', engineering an armed coup in Ukraine, which prompted Putin to annex Crimea and a de facto division of the country. The world has become much more dangerous during his tenure. "To this day, the very fact of getting elected remains Barack Obama's greatest achievement," writes Greenberg. Exactly. The first black president. And maybe the last.

FRBM or no FRBM, that is the question.

Sajjid Z Chinoy, Chief India Economist at JP Morgan, cautions against a fiscal stimulus in the coming budget. The reason for his caution is that demand is going to pick up sharply as new notes replace the old ones. The effect of a fiscal stimulus will take a few months to kick in by which time demand will be rising anyway, which will be inflationary. Demonetization has hurt small and medium industries, which operate on cash, so supply will not pick up with demand. The gap could be filled by increased imports from China, since the rupee has appreciated by 10% against the Chinese yuan. That would increase our trade and current account deficits. However, a big unknown is what effect Donald Trump's economic policies will have. If the US erects barriers to free trade the dollar will become stronger and foreign funds will sell out Indian stocks and bonds. As this money is repatriated to the US the rupee will fall even lower. At the same time, the consolidated deficit of the states has gone up from 2.2% of GDP in 2014 to 2.9% in 2015 and is expected to be 3.3% in 2016. "...to completely abandon fiscal consolidation next year -- as some in the market are advocating -- will dent credibility, trigger a tightening of financial conditions and, therefore, neither be efficacious nor optimal," writes Chinoy. Professor Sudipto Mundle comes to an exactly opposite conclusion from his analysis of the same data. The real GDP growth in the present financial year could be 6.8%, or even as low as 6.1%, but the budget cannot take this into account because it has been brought one month forward, which is 2 months before the end of the financial year on 31 March. Housing sales have fallen by 44% in 8 largest cities, automobile sales are the lowest in 16 years, revenues of small and medium industries have dropped 50% and jobs by 35% and demand for relief under the MGNREGA has increased by 20%. So, "....if the fiscal deficit target of 3.5% for 2016-17 is breached and the 3% FRBM target for 2017-18 is eased in the forthcoming budget, this would not be a bad thing," writes Mundle. FRBM stands for the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act which was passed in 2003 to stop irresponsible spending by governments. This was blatantly ignored by the Congress, resulting in double digit inflation, a collapse of the rupee and a fall in GDP growth. Since the FRBM Act was passed by the previous BJP government it would be ironic indeed if the present BJP government breaks it. India has benefited hugely from globalization, if not as much as China, while the US and the European Union have seen their share of the world GDP shrink. If the US puts up trade barriers our growth could fall sharply. No jobs and no money, it will be tough.

What use is a right when the supply is broke,

The Annual Status of Education Report, or ASER, makes for very dismal reading. In 2016, only 47.8% of students of Class V in India were able to read a Class II textbook. Standards vary wildly between states, from 70.7% in Manipur to 25.5% in Arunachal Pradesh. Both are northeastern states so why such difference in standards? Class VIII students able to do simple division varied from 78.6% in Manipur to a low of 28.1% in Chhattisgarh. The only good figure was that 97% of students are enrolled in schools. On the other hand a government census in 2011 showed that 840 million children do not attend school at all and 7.8 million have to earn a living, even as they attend school. Sadly the BIMARU states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have some of the worst figures. In UP only 7.2% of Class III students can read Class II text and a pathetic 7.9% could subtract a two-digit sum. Despite such dire figures it seems that MP is even worse. Poor children. Bihar and UP have the highest fertility rates in India. Educated women, even those who are just about able to read, have fewer children so illiteracy is a cause of high fertility. On the other hand, parents with a large number of children are unable to feed them, so send them out to work. Those who do attend school learn little as teachers in government schools are burdened with other tasks, such as census duty, election duty, Aadhar card registration, opening bank accounts and supervising midday meals. Mark Tully found that even poor rural folk preferred to send their children to private schools rather than government ones because of the difference in teaching standards. Sadly, cynical politicians do not hesitate to use little children to create a class divide, so as to get votes. The Congress passed the Right to Education Act, which forces independent private schools to reserve 25% of seats for children of poor people. This acted as a sly tax on the middle-class as school fees soared. Unfortunately, a lot of teaching is done at home and children of illiterate parents would be at a disadvantage. To prevent these children from failing in exams the Congress stopped all exams in schools. In the absence of exams teachers had no incentive to teach and since no one could judge whether children were learning anything at all in lower classes the failure rate at higher levels were shocking. Even a simply talking to babies results in permanent changes in the way the brain handles languages. No wonder then that cheating in exams is not seen as anything wrong. With Artificial Intelligence poised to take over 70% of jobs education of a high standard is absolutely essential. But, it is a game for politicians. To win votes.

Give them an incentive and people will pay, happily.

Milind Murugkar has written an article, in which he says that Prime Minister Narendra Modi got the idea of banning high denomination notes, known as demonetization, from a NGO, called Arthakranti, founded by one Anil Bokil. 'Artha' means 'money' and 'kranti' means 'revolution' or 'trying to proceed by subjugating others'. According to Arthakranti the only way to get rid of black money is to get rid of all notes. If every transaction has to pass through banks people will not be able to hide their incomes, and so will be forced to pay their share of income tax. Arthakranti also recommends replacing direct taxes with an indirect tax of 2% on every transaction. However, such tax will have a cascading effect on everything we buy and will be the exact opposite of the Goods and Services Tax, or GST, which the government is trying to bring in. "A government enjoying a majority support feels emboldened to disregard the advice of experts and plays with radical ideas, ignoring their long term impact. We have seen the consequences of such foolhardiness with the demonetization decision. It is a catastrophe," writes Murugkar, advising against acting without a rigorous study. It is a universal belief in India that most people avoid paying income tax. Income tax is easy to collect from salaried people, but only 20% of bread-winners are in salaried jobs. Of these, 16% are Grade IV employees, such as peons and sweepers, 1% are clerical staff and 3% are officers. Even among these lucky individuals up to 71% do not have written contract, which means they may not be working regularly. Why does the government need to raise taxes? Because 30% of the population lives below the poverty line and would suffer without government handouts. There are more than 1,000 schemes to support the poor so some are recommending a Universal Basic Income scheme. This will be easy to implement as everyone is paid the same amount and there will be no leakage as it will go straight into bank accounts. However, it will be too costly if given to every citizen so some selection of who deserves to be paid is inevitable. No one likes to pay taxes, especially in the US, but taxes are necessary to pay soldiers, police and firemen who are essential for our security. Income tax rate in India is less than that in the US and much lower compared to Sweden, Denmark or Germany. Why do Indians avoid paying tax? Because no one thinks that politicians pay their fair share and paying for their luxuries is infuriating. The most important reason for not paying income tax is that we receive nothing in return. Instead of treating us as thieves the government could allow people to pay as much as they can. Of that government will deduct, say 20%, as tax and treat the rest as investment in health insurance and old age pension. The more you pay the more you get. People will pay as much as they can, for themselves and also for family. Make it an investment. 

Will Trump be a disaster, as everyone says?

He could be the best president, he could be the worst president, depending on whether his policies work, whether he has the courage to push all his policies through, and on how much opposition he gets from his own party, the Republicans, in Congress. Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the US today and many of the senior positions in his cabinet are as inexperienced in government as he is. The Republicans have a majority of 241-194 in the House of Representatives and a 52-48 majority in the Senate. This should make it easy for him to get his legislation passed by the Congress but the problem is that many in his party hate him, whether for personal reasons or because his policies will hurt their campaign contributors we do not know. While building a wall on the border with Mexico will not affect us in India Trump's views on H1B visas will affect our IT firms directly. Some of the larger companies are already hiring Americans to serve customers in the US. Will it be such a bad thing? It might reduce the number of Indians working as cyber coolies but, Americans being better trained, may help these companies move up the value chain and a stronger dollar may increase profits. However, Trump's views on trade have caused the greatest heartburn. Trump has promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, or Nafta, which has angered Prof Ricardo Hausmann, who argued that productivity gains from Nafta created 333,000 jobs in the US. During campaigning Trump proposed a 45% tax on goods imported from China. Experts are almost unanimous that it will cause a great deal of harm to the US because China will immediately impose tariffs on US goods and inflation in the US will rise. Speaking at the World Economic Forum annual jamboree at Davos, China's President, Xi Jinping warned of the dangers of protectionism. The irony of a brutal communist dictator, lecturing a roomful of rampant capitalists about free trade, is delicious. But is Trump such a lunatic as every expert is making him out to be? Levying a duty on Chinese imports will surely increase inflation rate but that is what the Federal Reserve has been trying to do since 2008, with near zero interest rate at first and then quantitative easing. A strong dollar will reduce some of the cost. If the Chinese economy slows down commodities will become cheaper, but energy costs for the US will be kept under control by shale oil and a strong dollar. Ruchir Sharma writes that economic growth is directly linked to population growth, so a strong growth in the US is impossible because of falling fertility rate. Maybe not. Future manufacturing is going to be highly automated and US companies are loaded with cash. Low running costs, along with cheap energy and no taxes on exports could be a real stimulus. As for India, our choices are simple, but stark. With a huge and exploding population there is no land. Maybe Trump will show the way.

We are completely exposed. Hackers have nothing to boast about.

Writing for Bloomberg, Leonid Bershidsky finds that hacking seems to have become a public sport, which is bad. While the world was fixated on the hacking of emails of the Democratic National Committee, by someone calling himself Guccifer 2.0, no one noticed that another group calling itself Shadow Brokers were boasting of acquiring a huge cache of malware, by hacking into another group of hackers, they called the Equation Group. The malware obtained from the Equation Group was targeting Iran, Russia, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China. This led to the conclusion that the Equation Group is none other than the National Security Agency, which was tapping into phone calls of heads of state of friendly nations, such as Germany, for decades. What goes round, comes round. Shadow Brokers announced that they were 'going dark' after failing to attract any buyers for their material. On the same day Guccifer 2.0 reappeared, denying that he had any connections to Russia and accusing US intelligence of fabricating evidence. While Russians like to disguise themselves the US is open with its accusations. "The tools that have been revealed and analysed so far are meant for intelligence gathering and disrupting critical infrastructure," writes Bershidsky. "Now that knowledge is in the open, used for threats and innuendo-filled media reports. This is no longer cyber espionage, it's a publicity war." Since this is a new type of warfare its rules have to be written. Couple of weeks back Pakistani hackers defaced the National Security Guard website. The NSG is an elite anti-terrorist unit whose training is so tough that up to 70% of recruits are forced to drop out. Israelis are experts in hacking into any smartphone that exists. A US company, calling itself NSO, has its offices in Israel and was apparently responsible for creating the Stuxnet virus that disrupted Iranian centrifuges, enriching uranium. An Israeli company, called Cellebrite, sells its services to police forces around the world, to break into phones used by criminals. They claim to be able to break into any phone that exists. If the US is unable to protect its servers, what hope has India got? Turns out, not much. In October, 3.2 million ATM machines were hacked. A hacker group, Legion, claimed responsibility and said that our banks' security is deeply flawed. Another group, Suckfly, has targeted government systems. The Scorpene submarine systems were hacked. Firewalls are expensive so banks and government agencies are not going to update them. The government is forcing us to link our biometric Aadhar details to our bank accounts. As identity theft is the commonest form of cyber crime anyone will be able to steal our details from banks. Terrorists will use stolen identities and government goons will persecute innocent citizens. They should use identities of politicians.

Are Indians the most amused people in the world?

India is a loincloth economy where everyone, except politicians and civil servants, is expected to live in loincloths, because of the example set by the Father of the Nation, MK Gandhi. Our leaders are proud that the Hunger Index for India has dropped from 46.4 in 1992 to 28.5 in 2016. We are above Pakistan and Zambia but below Bangladesh, Laos, Mali and Guinea. Naturally our leaders work tirelessly round the clock to serve the numerous poor who vote them back to power, in their gratitude. The recent demonetization of high value notes was solely for the benefit of the poor, who cheered to the rafters because it was perceived to be hurting the rich by delegitimizing their black money, even though Frank Holmes wrote in the Forbes that it reduces our freedom and Pronab Sen wrote that it will damage the economy, perhaps permanently. All this service for the poor needs a lot of money. One way of getting money is to borrow from the market. This year the government set a target Rs 4.2 trillion. This leads to fiscal deficit, which means that the government spends more than it raises in taxes. At 6.70% our deficit is less than that of Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Argentina but more than other emerging market nations. At 28.1% of GDP the government expenditure is less than that of China and Vietnam but higher than other countries so, naturally, at 68.5% of GDP our debt is the highest in the region. For some reason revenue calculation is done in Purchasing Power Parity against the dollar. Why that is relevant when most of the debt is in Indian rupees is difficult to understand. Expenditure is only going to increase as politicians keep increasing handouts in a bid to bribe the poor but the government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit below 3.5%. According to Professor Himanshu of JNU in Delhi, the government does not publish relevant figures on expenditure and tax data, so the figure for economic growth is a bit of flimflam. The other way of financing expenditure is to raise taxes. That is where the annual circus, The Budget, comes in. Everyone begs for lower taxes. The Finance Minister must feel like a God, floating high above us, throwing manna down to the begging populace. Naushad Forbes, President of the Confederation of Indian Industry writes about how more investment is required to create more jobs and then begs for lower corporate tax at 18%. We the people are begging for a reduction in personal income tax because an income of Rs 250,000 is totally inadequate for survival. The auto industry is begging for some help, while real estate fellows beg for 'tax incentives'. Meanwhile, the GST will probably be a nightmare for companies, with multiple rates and horrendous paperwork, while Andy Mukherjee, writing for Bloomberg, is incensed by a presumed tax on sale of Indian assets by foreign investment funds. Aren't we lucky to have a bunch of jokers keeping us amused?

Rejection is so painful to bear.

Professor WPS Sidhu discusses two reports published recently: 'The Global Risks Report 2017, published by the World Economic Forum and the 'Global Trends: Paradox of Progress', published by the US National Intelligence Council. Global Trends is more pessimistic, and even predicts a nuclear war between India and Pakistan in 2028. Anything is possible, but it is perhaps more possible that Pakistan will descend into civil war or break apart before then. With the economy faltering the government is allowing China to build an economic corridor from Kashgar in Xinjiang Province to the Gwadar Port in Balochistan. This will hand over vast tracts of land to the Chinese. Balochistan is rich in natural resources which are being looted by the government. The Baloch have been fighting for independence from Pakistan which has been ruthlessly put down by eliminating suspected separatists. The army is raising a special unit to guard the Chinese workers along the Corridor. Both the reports talk about rising disparity in income and wealth, about rising polarization of societies and the rapidly growing use of disruptive technologies. Both reports agree that there is a problem with democracy and that "democracy can no longer be taken for granted". Those who are mourning the end of liberal democracy fail to acknowledge that the problems of the world today are precisely because of such policies. Clearing Zuccotti Park, of Occupy Wall Street protesters, in a night time raid was easy but a price had to be paid in the victory of Donald Trump. What were they protesting against? They were angry because the fortunes of the top 1% increased after the financial crash of 2008, while ordinary people were losing their homes to foreclosures. Today, just 8 billionaires have as much wealth as the poorest 3.6 billion people in the world. The richest 1% in India own 58% of the total wealth of the nation. How has this happened? Globalization allowed multinationals to transfer manufacturing to poorest corners of the world. Avoid taxes by taking advantage of tax policies of different countries, which allows fat bonuses for the executives. Import of cheap goods keeps inflation low, allowing central banks to keep interest rates at low levels. This allows the rich to borrow cheap money. The total debt of the world has reached $152 trillion, 225% of the total GDP of the world. The rich buy up assets by borrowing cheaply, which makes them richer. As for democracy, it has long lost its Greek meaning of 'rule by the common people'. It has come to mean an election every few years where people have the opportunity of electing opposing sets of villains. That is why Trump's slogan of "drain the swamp" has resounded with Americans. If only he would get rid of the bunch of criminals who have grabbed power in India. It is hard to accept rejection. We understand. 

Old Chinese proverbs may not suffice, we need some new ones.

Although no such saying apparently exists in the Chinese language, those who are not Chinese think that "May you live in interesting times" is an old Chinese curse. An authentic Chinese proverb says,"Better to be a dog in a peaceful time. than to be a human in a chaotic (warring) period." Both the proverbs may come true for China in the coming months. China is to seal its border with Pakistan to prevent terrorists sneaking into the Xinjiang region, the home of the Muslim Uighur people. At the same time, China protects terrorists in Pakistan who mount attacks against India. It is diverting the waters of the Brahmaputra River by building dams on its tributaries. Barring a catastrophic event, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the US on Friday. Trump has repeatedly said that he is not willing to accept the huge US trade deficit, which is nearly $800 billion per year. The trade deficit with China was nearly half that amount, at $367 billion in 2015. Trump has promised to impose a tax of 45% on Chinese imports. China has threatened to hit back by stopping US imports but it has much more to lose. Writing in Forbes, Gordon G Chang says that Xi Jinping is at the World Economic Forum at Davos, where he will be asking for greater investment in China, but he will have some convincing to do because he has been penalising foreign businesses to give unfair advantage to local ones. After Trump accepted a phone call from Taiwan's President, Tsai Ing-Wen, China reacted sharply, reminding Trump that there can be no change in 'One China Policy', under which Taiwan is supposed to be a province of China. Why China thinks that it can threaten every country in the world is a mystery. India has been kept weak by its politicians but not the US. MIT Professor, Yasheng Huang writes,"There is no method to Trump's madness." "Trump is antagonizing China for no good reason. Worse, by announcing that the US will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- designed, at least in part, to shape global trade and investment flows, according to Western rules, rather than China's mercantilist vision -- Trump is also abandoning a US policy that could have checked China's surging influence in Asia," he writes. Really? Almost all Asian countries, except the rogue states of North Korea and Pakistan, will be glad to see a complete breakdown of China. China's economy is suspect. China's debt burden has reached 250% of GDP, much of it corporate debt. Corporate taxes are very high in China and profits of some companies are less than 2%, writes Zhang Jun. Wonder if there is an old Chinese proverb about getting bitten if you play with venomous snakes. 

The budget has been brought forward. To entertain us?

The annual circus, called the Union Budget, has been brought forward by one month to 1 February. Which means it is just before assembly elections in 5 states, starting with Punjab and Goa on 4 February. Naturally, opposition parties see this as a cunning trick by the BJP to get some free airtime and a sly way of announcing handouts, to bribe voters. In 2013, the Supreme Court asked the Election Commission to frame a model code of conduct for political parties saying,"Freebies shake the root of free and fair elections to a large degree." The Model Code of Conduct of the Election Commission clearly states that,"All parties and candidates shall avoid scrupulously all activities which are 'corrupt practices' and offences under the election law, such as bribing of voters, intimidation of voters...." Following all this the Aam Aadmi Party won assembly election in Delhi in 2015 by promising 20,000 liters of water and 400 units of electricity free. Opposition parties went to the Supreme Court, seeking postponement of the budget till after the elections but the Court refused to hear the petition saying,"There is no urgency in it." We can only hope that the matter is heard before the budget has been read, and not after. Half of the budget, which gives last year's figures for government spending, revenue collection and fiscal and  current account deficit, is useful but the other half, which announces anticipated figures for the next year, is complete fantasy. The Finance Ministry cannot possibly have any idea what the price of oil will be, depends on what OPEC does, what the exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar, which determines the price of fuel and gold in India, will be or how our exports, little as they are, will fare, depending on monetary policies of central banks of other countries and on changes in visa rules, such as the H1B visas in the US. The natural tendency is to correct revenue collection on the higher side and so taxes are increased every year. Then, there is the Prime Minister who, in an effort to win the elections by neutralising black money of other parties, suddenly banned all high denomination notes in the country. When it was tried in Myanmar it led to severe inflation while the USSR may have broken up when it was imposed there. Retail inflation fell to 3.63% in November, because of a sharp drop in food prices, and the Finance Minister boasted of excess tax collection, based on very high excise duty on fuel. Excess direct tax is collected in advance and we have to file for refund. Last year there were claims for refund of over Rs 1.5 trillion. Those who forget to file for refund, due to old age or lack of knowledge, lose their money. Thus, the budget is really a con trick on the nation and should be restricted to a profit and loss account for the previous year. Just tell us how much more we have to pay in taxes and cut out the blather. Save us the headache.

Does democracy need permission of others?

Noah Feldman, a professor at Harvard, writes that India's Supreme Court indirectly helped Hindus in a recent ruling which held that any reference to religion or caste will disqualify an election result. An earlier judgement held that Hinduism is not a religion but a way of life. "Thus Muslim candidates can't invoke their creed to win votes, but Hindu candidates can," writes Feldman. Seems that Feldman has little knowledge of Indian society. Hindu and Muslim names are distinct, Muslims often dress differently to deliberately differentiate themselves, and there is no restriction in being seen alongside a priest or a Mullah. The Founding Fathers may have stated clearly that the US is not founded on Christianity but would Hussein Obama have any hope of being elected president had he not converted to Christianity in childhood? "In effect, secularism and Hinduism are treated as identical," objects Feldman. Is it wrong? Hindus not only have millions of gods, but goddesses as well, which infuriates Muslims, since they see women as inferior to men. Each god has been assigned an animal, which makes all animals sacred. Even plants are seen as living things, perhaps an early form of protection of environment. But most importantly, Hindus do not convert which means there is no need to conquer other faiths and force them to convert. Surely, this tolerance of every faith and living thing is secularism? Is everything great about Hindus? No. Caste has become more entrenched, as politicians have ruthlessly exploited caste and reservation for votes, and the explosion in population has resulted in conflict between humans and animals, as habitat has been destroyed for cultivation. If Feldman is trying to create friction between Hindus and Muslims perhaps he should be more worried about the US and Europe. On interrogation the 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad told Dr James Mitchell that Muslims will triumph "through immigration and by outbreeding non-Muslims". "He said like-minded jihadi brothers would immigrate to Western democracies and to the United States, they would wrap themselves in our civil liberties for protection, they would support themselves in our welfare systems while they spread their jihadi message, and then, when the time was right, they would rise up and attack," said Mitchell. A report by the Pew Research Center said that Muslims will outnumber Christians by 2070. A Clash of Civilizations has already been predicted and there are conflicts in almost all Western countries, which are being masked by political correctness. After all, there is a long history of such conflicts with copious amounts of bloodshed. Perhaps, Feldman is trying to divert attention to India. Futile.

People can only change politicians. Not economists.

Writing for Bloomberg, Noah Smith despairs about rational economic policy under Donald Trump. "There is a broad consensus that the kind of policies that our president-elect has proposed are among policies that will not work," said Joseph Stiglitz at the annual conference of the American Economic Association. Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate so we are entitled to ask him why economic policies did not prevent the Great Recession of 2008. Smith fears that Trump will not listen to the science of economics. Trouble is that economists do not agree with each other. What is "technocracy" to Smith is derided as "mathiness" by Paul Romer. Trump has picked Peter Navarro as Trade Secretary. "He picked Navarro because Navarro's ideas on trade -- basically, that China is screwing the US -- align closely with what Trump already believed," writes Smith. Is he wrong? The US had a trade deficit of a record $343 billion with China in 2015, imports reached a record $483.9 billion, which is about 2.5% of the US GDP of $18 trillion. If some of these imports were manufactured in the US it would create thousands of precious jobs. Besides it is impossible to understand why economists do not accept that China exports disinflation to the US and, by keeping prices low, encouraged the famous Greenspan put, which was largely responsible for the subprime crisis. Smith feels that "....wise, expert leaders should steer policy for the good of all...". How can he say that when the gap between earnings of blacks and whites has increased to 1950s level? "The elite, supported by the vast majority of the economic profession, took the virtues of free trade as a given..." writes Smith. But, Dani Rodrik of Harvard does not agree on the virtues of free trade. Rodrik thinks that the death of the huge trade agreements with Asian countries and Europe, known as TPP and TTIP respectively, is a good thing. Avinash Persaud agrees that global trade lifted over a billion people out of poverty worldwide, but for every $1 earned by the poor the elite took a cut of 44 cents. In a scathing attack Paul Romer wrote,"For more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backwards." Anantha Nageswaran cites figures to prove that financial markets are teetering on the edge of collapse. In an earlier article Smith himself wrote that monetary policies are not working and maybe it is time for unthinkable ideas, such as increasing interest rates to increase inflation. The rising gap in salaries between the top and bottom is fueling rage in ordinary workers. This was the rage tapped by Karl Marx, what the Germans call "Wutburgers", which means 'angry citizens', writes Jochen Bittner. Citizens cannot change professors, but they can and do change politicians. Professors have to adapt.

Why is the CIA taking orders from the Brits?

A former MI6 agent, which means British, was told by former FSB agents that Donald Trump paid prostitutes to perform sex acts inside the Presidential Suite at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Moscow and also in St Petersburg. The Russian government, read Vladimir Putin, has video and audio tapes of this 'kompromat', which means 'compromising material' in Russian spy lingo. The Brits passed it on to the CIA, who found it credible. It is possible for a rich man to pay for the services of women but the story sounds like something out of a C grade movie. Firstly, a hotel is not a top secret facility and all the staff would have known about it. So, it should be easy to verify. Secondly, it is the duty of the CIA to protect the US. This is deadly material, because it makes the future President of the USA vulnerable to blackmail by Russia. If the CIA had knowledge of this earlier why did they not reveal it during the primaries when Republicans would have had the chance to choose another candidate. Why now, just 8 days before the swearing in? Not just Democrats, even some Republicans are trying very hard to discredit Trump. People knew about Gennifer Flowers before election and voted for Bill Clinton anyway. Donald Trump did not just win the presidential election he inspired a huge down-ballot sweep for the Republicans. When Obama won in 2008, 28 state governors were Democrats, now 31 are Republicans. Democrats have lost 919 seats in state legislatures. Republicans now have 4,100 seats out of a total of 7,383, the most since the 1920s. It seems that whenever there is something dirty afoot the Brits are behind it. So what is their game? Trump has clearly stated his desire for better relations with Russia and recently said that those who opposed it are "stupid people" and "fools". The British have not recovered from the loss of their empire and cling on to their 'Special Relationship' with the US, as their only chance of strutting around on  the world stage. Brexit means that they have lost any influence in Europe so they are terrified of good relations between the US and Russia, which will make them totally irrelevant. The mystery is why the US has put up with this excrescence on its foreign policy. Margaret Thatcher forced George HW Bush into the first Gulf War in 1990 by saying,"Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly." Iraq is still suffering, while Iran has become extremely powerful for that stupidity. More recently, David Cameron got Obama to bomb Gaddafi. Libya is a mess today. Once political correctness wears out Obama will be judged on his record, which is terrible, especially in foreign policy. But why is such a large section of liberal elites so terrified of Trump? What have they got to lose? If Trump survives till 20 January he will be able to get his team in place. We will know after that.

When it comes to the economy, every action could have a worse opposite reaction.

"It's 690 seats this year; another 964 seats are up for grabs next year, with the general election to follow in 2019," writes Rajrishi Singhal, trying to explain the apparently ruthless actions of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. He has taken all the Congress schemes, such as Aadhar, MGNREGA, Ghar nu Ghar, and forced them on the nation with scant regard for what damage he may be causing. Elections to assemblies of UP, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur are to take place in the next 2 months, of which UP is the prize that he craves. Since elections are fought with cash, demonetization was planned to wrong-foot political opponents and the budget was brought forward by one month so as to be able to announce goodies for the poor, and maybe some cosmetic tax cuts for the middle class. "The World Bank's World Development Report 2015 -- titled "Mind, Society and Behavior" -- states clearly that penalties or incentives have failed to improve tax compliance across the world," writes Singhal. Human beings do not like being forced. As an admirer of China, Modi believes in a strong government and his slogan of "minimum government, maximum governance" was a red herring, believes Manas Chakravarty. Modi announced more sops in his New Year speech. Unfortunately, the Finance Minister will find it tough to give away too many goodies in the budget. According to the Central Statistics Office, growth in the first half of the financial year, up to the end of October, has been mainly due to government consumption. Demonetization started on 9 November so that has not been factored in. Government consumption was just 3.1% last year but will be 33.3% this year, private consumption will be 51.2%. Growth in all sectors are down, except in public administration, defence and other services, which are up. The Reserve Bank predicts that Gross Non Performing Assets, as bad loans are called, will rise from 9.1% in September 2016 to 9.8% in March 2017 to 12.9% in March 2018. Which means that public sector banks, which are owned by the government will need vast amounts of funds to comply with Basel III norms by 2020. Banks have lost money by not charging for ATM and debit card transactions till 31 December and are still not being allowed to charge for card purchase of petrol. Modi wants to bring the informal sector, which survives on cash, into the formal economy. The Goods and Services Tax would have done it anyway but Modi wants to make sure by taking away cash altogether. The problem could be that the informal economy thrives because it is cheap and because it serves the millions of poor who live on the margins. Since handouts are not going to make them middle class overnight the loss of jobs could be a hammer blow to the poor. Demonetization is going to cost in excess of Rs 1 trillion so that will have to be paid for in the budget. If Jaitley was an economist he would cry.

Are we really safe or is it post-truth?

China and Europe will do poorly in 2017 feels Financial Consultant Anantha Nageswaran. The yuan will fall further and growth in Europe will fall. A recession is almost definite in the US and the stock market is a bubble waiting to burst. He is predicting that the dollar will fall but others predict that it will get stronger. All this is moot until we get to know the economic policies of the Trump administration, after 20 January. Ajit Ranade foresees a "dollar winter" this year. Past episodes of strengthening of the dollar resulted in the Latin American crisis of 1979, the Japan crisis of 1985 and the East Asian crisis of 1997. If the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates and Trump gets US companies to repatriate funds they are holding overseas, so as not to pay tax in the US, the dollar will become very strong. Greater spending on infrastructure will increase deficit in the US and raise inflation, because of the tight labor market, leading to greater trade deficit with China. This will result in a boom, which will lead to a bust later on, writes Sanjeev Sanyal. There have been 12 boom-bust cycles in the US since the war. Special Economic Adviser to the Japanese Prime Minister, Koichi Hamada writes that large public debts are not always bad for the economy. "Excessive government debt can be highly damaging. In inflationary periods, high outstanding government liabilities impair fiscal policy, because higher taxes are needed to finance the same level of real government spending. Making matters worse, governments can be tempted to inflate their debts away -- a power that has been abused since the age of monarchs, resulting in uniform inflation tax on asset holders," writes Hamada. This is exactly what successive Indian governments have been doing. The government spends over Rs 2.5 trillion, or 12.66% of the budget, on subsidies. 21% of government spending is financed by borrowing, which is why taxes are so high in India and retail inflation is allowed to run at over 5%, to reduce government debt. The debt to GDP ratio for India has dropped from 90% in 2003-04 to 68.5% in 2013-14, this when the Congress was consistently running high fiscal deficit. The average retail inflation was 3.79% in 2004 and rose to above 6% after that, rising to 12.11% in 2010. However, this has not happened in Japan where the increased consumption tax is acting as a break despite enormous monetary stimulus. What will happen to our economy we do not know. If interest rate in the US and the dollar go up it will create an enormous stress on corporate debts of emerging market countries. Non-financial corporate debt has increased from $4 trillion in 2004 to over $18 trillion in 2014. Apparently, India will not be badly affected. With the severe contraction in money supply what happens to the rupee will be key. We fear the worst.

No one can be anti-poor in a loincloth economy.

The poor are the greatest elite in India. Every leader, starting with MK Gandhi, every political party, starting with the Congress, and every policy by every government, including VP Singh's infamous OBC reservation, works most diligently for the poor. So successful have we been that we have the largest number of poor people in the world, earning less than $1.90 per day, by Purchasing Power Parity. Naturally, being anti-poor is the worst crime any politician can commit. So, Rahul Gandhi has angrily accused Prime Minister, Modi for being anti-poor for banning high denomination notes. The BJP had been off the mark much earlier, branding Gandhi as anti-poor, accusing him of being born with a golden spoon, which is post-truth because he is living on Rs 900,000 borrowed from his mom. When in opposition the BJP denounced a ban of notes printed before 2005 as anti-poor. To prove that he is not anti-poor Modi has brought the annual budget forward by one month, which will release funds for the poor one month early. Naturally, the opposition has objected. They suspect, perhaps correctly, that it is an attempt to announce more handouts for the poor just before assembly elections in 5 states, including UP and Punjab. Logically, if they start spending early the funds will finish early, so the government can be accused of being anti-poor. To preempt that the BJP has said that accusing the government of being anti-poor is anti-poor. Demonetisation is going to cost the economy in excess of Rs 1 trillion in printing and transporting new notes, in man-hours wasted on standing in queues and in loss of business. The poor are happy because the government is mounting surgical strikes against all the anti-poor elements in Indian society. Farmers cannot pay their laborers so they cannot prepare their fields for the next season. Wholesale prices for vegetable have crashed, so farmers are losing money, while retail prices are still high, so the middlemen are making windfall profits. But there is MGNREGA to help the poor by providing dole for 100 days every year. It does help the poor but, by depriving factories of labor, it may drive automation, which will reduce employment in the long term. As farmers earn less for their produce they will reduce planting in the new season to raise prices by creating scarcity. Meanwhile, the informal sector, which avoids paying taxes, by operating in cash, will be forced into the open . Modi says it will increase tax collection which he can then distribute to the poor. The number of poor will increase even more, proving Modi is not anti-poor. MK Gandhi is the Father of the Nation. MK Gandhi dressed in loincloths. If everyone is in loincloth no one can be anti-poor. That is why ours is a loincloth economy.  

VIPs genuine, but fake medals for soldiers.

A new bill will make it mandatory for medical students to pass a new National Exit Test before they can call themselves doctors. This will presumably be in addition to examinations on various subjects held by their respective university as part of the MBBS curriculum, and one year experience as an intern. There can be no quibble about the need to maintain a high standard for medical education because of a mushrooming of private medical colleges which charge exorbitant fees but have little or no teaching facilities. Last year 3 girls committed suicide in Chennai because they were learning nothing despite having to pay high fees. India has 0.7 doctors per 1000 population, compared to 0.83 in Pakistan and 6.72 in Cuba. Despite such poor numbers around 2,000 seats in medical schools throughout the country were not filled last year because of very high fees and poor teaching facilities. Should we applaud that the government is setting a uniform standard for the entire country? Not quite. Physiotherapists claim the right to call themselves doctors and, in a country where large numbers are uneducated, they are prescribing drugs they know nothing about. The UP government has permitted Unani and Ayurveda practitioners to prescribe Allopathic medicines, although they have no knowledge of pharmacology. Perhaps to protect people from dangerous quacks the Hon'ble Supreme Court has banned the sale of alcohol along highways. To reduce accidents. Sadly, the Court did not ban the continual digging up of roads, due to a nexus between crooked officials and contractors, or potholes, because money has been spent on unnecessary digging, or on stray animals, which have been dumped outside by their owners. The most surprising thing is that despite frequent visits to foreign countries, our judges and officials cannot see that no one in the country knows the basic principles of safe driving. Since we have inherited our driving rules from the British why not download their Highway Code and make it mandatory. Maybe because, if they did that politicians will not be able to show how much they care, by passing stupid laws, which only complicate our miserable lives. How complicated? Soldiers are now having to buy fake medals from the markets because the government is not bothered to produce enough of them. These are people dying to protect us. While soldiers have to be contented with fake medals, our politicians and civil servants have elevated themselves to Very Important Persons. How many are there? India, with a GDP of barely $2 trillion, has 5,79,092 VIPs, compared to 435 in China, with $10 trillion GDP, and 252 in the US, with $17 trillion GDP. Being VIP allows civil servants to travel abroad as agents of foreign entities. No rules for them, stupid laws for us. Why beg for a ratings upgrade? So humiliating.

If the rupee has no value, does it matter if it is white or black?

A well-reasoned article on how to tackle black money in India has been written by an economist, Indira Rajaraman. Black money is supposed to mean earnings on which no tax has been paid but it has also come to include payments received for illegal activities, such as bribes extorted by the politicians and civil servants, or money made from drug and gold smuggling. A lot of black money is used in construction. "The problem is that we did not develop bond markets in the country as we should have, to the point where large construction projects could easily access formal financing," writes Rajaraman. So construction companies have to borrow unofficially at very high interest rates from people with ill-gotten cash. Labor at construction projects are typically migrants from other parts of the country and demand wages in cash. The trouble with digital payment is that it has to make profits to survive as a business, so someone has to pay for it, usually the seller. Small businesses, such as vegetable and milk sellers, survive on very low margins so they will be unwilling to bear the burden. "There are many millions who earn incomes well above the taxable threshold, who are below the tax radar and prefer to stay there," she writes. The reason is that the tax threshold is too low, at a total earning of Rs 250,000 per year, while tolerating constantly rising prices to keep interest rate artificially low. Artisans, such as electricians, plumbers and carpenters, earn well above tax threshold but they demand payment in cash. Filing tax returns and paying income tax would be of no advantage because they will not get bank loans to buy land. They find it convenient to borrow from the market at much higher interest, while saving on tax. The answer would be to increase the tax threshold to realistic levels which will immediately decriminalize hundreds of millions of honest, hard working citizens. Rajaraman recommends certain solutions to the problem of tax avoidance but none of that will happen because political parties function on donations of cash money where the donors are unidentified. According to the Reserve Bank, nearly 10% of the value of our exports never comes back to India, which means that about Rs 17 trillion has left the country in 44 years. The rich will always find ways to decrease their tax liabilities and there are many countries eager to help them to do so because the transfer of wealth helps them. Ireland has challenged the EU directive to recover 13 billion Euros in back taxes from Apple. The only solution would be to have the same tax rate throughout the world, but that is not going to happen. Meanwhile, Modi's cries of cleansing the system, as in China, is false because he has not changed laws to punish politicians implicated in the multitude of scams. Since the rupee has no value people are too poor to pay tax. Make us rich first.

Chinese Trojan in US decision making.

Yasheng Huang, Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, has written an article cautioning President Elect Donald Trump on how he handles China. He dwells on a phone call between Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province. China formally protested against the call. "That phone call violated protocol -- avoidance of direct contact between the US and Taiwan at the presidential level -- that American presidents from both parties have carefully observed for four decades," writes Huang. But why? Why should the US be so afraid of China? It is this hands off approach that has allowed China to bully every one of its neighbors while supporting the barbarous regime in North Korea which is racing to build ICBMs, capable of reaching the US. China has claimed the whole of the South China Sea by drawing a Nine-dash Line on the map, that only it recognises and has blatantly rejected a ruling by an international tribunal at the Hague. The state-run Global Times called the US and Japan 'paper tigers' and 'worrying eunuchs'. Shows how civilised the Chinese are. China is the biggest danger to the world today and only the US can stop it. "But by calling into question the 'One China' policy, Trump is playing with fire," feels Huang. Maybe, but China may not be as powerful as its snarling seeks to convey. Trump has said many times that China keeps its currency artificially low to increase exports to the US. He said that he intends to name it a 'currency manipulator', and to levy a 45% tax on imports from China. Trump has appointed Peter Navarro head of the new National Trade Council which has further enraged the Chinese government. "There is no method to Trump's madness," writes Huang. "His knowledge of international economics is either non-existent or 10 years out of date." Strong stuff. It does not take a PhD in Economics to note that the trade deficit between the US and China keeps on growing, and hit a record $365.7 billion in 2015. That is because China erects barriers to US companies such as Google. Most of top US internet companies are blocked in China. Uber was forced to sell out recently. One of the main reasons for China's strength is the loyalty of Chinese expatriates. They are willing to spy for the mainland even after becoming citizens of other countries. There are units of the Peoples Liberation Army dedicated to steal trade secrets by hacking into US company computers. Strange that there is such an outcry over Russian hacking and not a peep on China, in the US. It maybe because Russia's population is a mere 146.3 million, while China's population is nearly 10 times as much, at 1374.62 million, so it is a much bigger market. So the US surrenders to China even if it is being robbed. Beware of Trojan Horse Chinese professors.

It is not mating, but the result that is lacking.

In a parody of Donald Trump's campaign slogan, 'Make America Great Again', Professor Stephen Mihm writes that the US economy may grow if they could "Make America Mate Again". The US population grew by 0.7% this year, the lowest since the Great Depression years of 1936 and 1937. This is below the replacement level of birth, at which the population neither grows not contracts. After World War I there was a steep decline in fertility in all western countries. More women went out to work. There were "sharp declines in the formation of new households, as younger people put off marriage and childbearing. This led to dramatic decline in residential construction starting around 1926". This coincided with a precipitous drop in immigration, which fell from 706,000 in 1924 to 23,000 in 1933. There was a baby boom just after World War II which coincided with boom in economic growth. The boomer generation had the best quality of life, not replicated by following generations. The number of young people still living with parents is at the same level as in 1940, which means that consumption driven growth will not happen because of a fall in the number of new households. Donald Trump has promised to reduce immigration. However, birthrates dropped dramatically during the industrial revolution, but growth was dramatic as well. It is wrong to link economic growth to population growth without considering other factors. Supporters of the one-child policy in China claim that it prevented 400 million new births, which resulted in double digit economic growth, as millions of women joined the workforce, bringing labor costs down, so that China became the manufacturing center of the world. The contrast with India, where politicians encourage fertility by providing handouts, could not be starker. An epidemic of plague that wiped out millions of Britons resulted in earnings growing by 250% between the years 1300 and 1450. Perhaps, it is not falling fertility rates in the US which is responsible for low growth. The rapid growth in populations in emerging economies provide cheap labor for manufacturing which cannot be matched by developed economies. The textile industry in Bangladesh is an example of an industry thriving on cheap labor, with poor safety record, but able to pull millions out of starvation. This rapid rise of population is causing rapid global warming, reduction of forests and pushing many species to the brink of extinction. Lastly, is it possible that social support, in the form of benefits, is discouraging people from working and pushing up wages by putting a floor under earnings, like MGNREGA seems to have done in India? With automation and artificial intelligence we definitely need fewer people on earth, which maybe the best solution to America's problems. Hope it happens.

Why are economists avoiding what happens to the rupee?

Last month 3 professors, Jagdish Bhagwati, Vivek Dehejia and Pravin Krishna, jointly defended the demonetization of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in an article. They made the point that by extinguishing black money and counterfeit currency the government will gain, either through reduced liability of the Reserve Bank or through increased tax collection, by penalising black money. "...money that has been proverbially hoarded under the mattress, whether white or black, and which has entered the formal financial system via bank deposits, now may grow via the classical money multiplier, assuming a portion of it is loaned out by banks," they wrote. So, they are appreciating the exercise assuming that some good may come out of it. Prof Dehejia takes issue with critics of demonetization in another article when he writes,"...the most important long-run economic effects will revolve around the increasing digitization and formalization of the economy..." The professors do not explain how all these changes will take place on the ground. The informal economy exists because there is little manufacturing in India. Trouble is that even in the formal sector the vast majority are contract workers because the labor laws are so stringent. It will be impossible for the formal sector to compensate for the loss of the enormous informal sector so we will see an increase in imports from China and other countries with superior manufacturing abilities. Our trade deficit with China was nearly $53 billion last fiscal. It will not be good for the economy if the trade and current account deficits are to rise further. With the drastic fall in demand it is unlikely that companies will be lining up for loans. People have stopped buying so indirect tax collections will fall, which will result in increased fiscal deficit. The government is pressuring public sector companies to pay huge dividends to the government, just like the Congress used to do. The companies are resisting for the moment but, since the government owns the companies, they will have to surrender in the end. It is true that almost everyone owns a mobile phone today but how many will want to buy smart phones to access digital banking. A man earning Rs 10,000 a month can hardly afford a smart phone for Rs 6,000. Not one of the eminent professors has talked about the rupee. If the value of a currency falls the central bank may support it by increasing interest rate and by reducing money supply by increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio, or CRR. Demonetization was the mother of all CRRs, sucking Rs 15.4 trillion out of circulation. One would have expected the rupee to have become stronger against the dollar but it is hovering at around 68 to the dollar. Once enough new money comes into circulation will the rupee go into free fall? Will someone assure us that the rupee is safe?

You want to win but are you ready to pay the price?

The Soviet Union was formally dissolved in 1991 but its end had come much earlier in November 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell. In the summer of 1989 Francis Fukuyama wrote "The End of History" in which he said that western liberal democracy had won against communism, which proved its superiority against other forms of social structure. The sudden destruction of the old communist structure, an ineffectual Yeltsin government and the rise of the oligarchs saw a collapse of the Russian economy. For a time it seemed that Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin would cement a friendly partnership between the 2 countries and that Russia would even join Nato. If that had happened it would really have been the end of history because Nato would have ruled the world and the rise of China's power would have been aborted. That did not happen because the US treated Russia with contempt and decided to impose its hegemony by inviting the former Comecon countries, sharing borders with Russia, into Nato. Drunk with power the US did not realise that some Russians felt deeply humiliated by the dismissive treatment of their country and one of them was a KGB officer, named Vladimir Putin. He set about improving Russia's military, its weapons and its diplomacy. As Russia got stronger the talk from western countries was one of confusion, anger and abuse of Putin. One, Molly K McKew has written an essay about Putin's long term strategy to weaken the US, which is amazing in its hatred for Russia and in a completely irrational sense of superiority in some illusion of 'American Values'. What are these wonderful values that the Americans are so proud of? "The basis of America's greatness and ability to lead the world stems from universal values that underpin a set of rules that uphold the others' rights, not an America that tries to base its greatness on a set of deals aimed at getting the better of others," writes Prof Ricardo Hausmann. Really? When asked whether the death of 567,000 children in Iraq due to US sanctions was worth it the then US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright replied,"I think this is a very hard choice , but the price -- we think the price is worth it." Viet Thanh Nguyen, a refugee from Vietnam writes about Henry Kissinger's lack of any remorse for the hundreds of thousands killed in the bombing of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. 'America is great because America is good' is not true, he writes. Kissinger is also held responsible for the crimes committed by the military regimes of Argentina and Chile. "We won the last Cold War. We will win the next one too. When it's us against them, they were, and are never going to be the winner," writes Ms McKew. She was a strategic adviser to Georgia and Moldova. God help us. A female Genghis Khan. Terrifying.

What use is the study of ignorance?

Robert Proctor, a science historian has been studying the spread of ignorance in the public. His interest was sparked by a secret memo written by Brown & Williamson tobacco company which sought to discredit research proving that tobacco causes cancer. "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the mind of the general public," said the memo. "It is also a means of establishing a controversy." In 1995, he and linguist Iain Boal coined the word 'Agnotology', which means the 'study of ignorance'. Now we know that smoking also causes coronary artery disease, peripheral gangrene and emphysema, but is all this knowledge of any use? A thing so poisonous should have been banned, just as heroin and cocaine are banned, but politicians do not want to lose the enormous taxes collected on tobacco products and the votes of the millions employed by the industry. Vegetarians blame meat eaters for adding to climate change but a vegetarian diet may not be better because more forests will need to be cut down to provide crops for food. Even being vegan may result in the waste of a lot of land, not suitable for growing crops. There is only one way to stop global warming and that is by reducing the number of people in the world. They can easily prove it with science but political correctness prevents academics from doing so. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, the mastermind of 9/11, told Dr James Mitchell, who interrogated him, that jihadists were taught to take advantage of political correctness in western countries to spread their message. He said that Muslims will triumph "through immigration and by outbreeding non-Muslims". The anti-Hindu secularists of India will ignore this. Anis Amri, responsible for killing 12 people by a truck in Berlin on 19 December was allowed to stay on in Germany because of political correctness. He was being paid $408 in cash by social services. There seems to be total consensus that the internet is responsible for ignorance as people seek those who agree with them, resulting in the formation of 'echo chambers' where no debate can take place. It would mean that all these years that the internet was not there we were living in a world of complete truth. African countries are withdrawing from the International Criminal Court because only Africans are being prosecuted there while those guilty of war crimes and genocide, such as Tony Blair, Dick Cheney and David Cameron are living in luxury. The best example of the blurring of truth comes from the art world where experts suspect that paintings worth about $240 million maybe fake. If experts cannot find any difference between the original master and the conman, can we say that the fake is an original? They say that we are living in a post-truth world, but the truth is that there is no absolute truth. Perhaps ignorance really is bliss.