Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Why are economists avoiding what happens to the rupee?

Last month 3 professors, Jagdish Bhagwati, Vivek Dehejia and Pravin Krishna, jointly defended the demonetization of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in an article. They made the point that by extinguishing black money and counterfeit currency the government will gain, either through reduced liability of the Reserve Bank or through increased tax collection, by penalising black money. "...money that has been proverbially hoarded under the mattress, whether white or black, and which has entered the formal financial system via bank deposits, now may grow via the classical money multiplier, assuming a portion of it is loaned out by banks," they wrote. So, they are appreciating the exercise assuming that some good may come out of it. Prof Dehejia takes issue with critics of demonetization in another article when he writes,"...the most important long-run economic effects will revolve around the increasing digitization and formalization of the economy..." The professors do not explain how all these changes will take place on the ground. The informal economy exists because there is little manufacturing in India. Trouble is that even in the formal sector the vast majority are contract workers because the labor laws are so stringent. It will be impossible for the formal sector to compensate for the loss of the enormous informal sector so we will see an increase in imports from China and other countries with superior manufacturing abilities. Our trade deficit with China was nearly $53 billion last fiscal. It will not be good for the economy if the trade and current account deficits are to rise further. With the drastic fall in demand it is unlikely that companies will be lining up for loans. People have stopped buying so indirect tax collections will fall, which will result in increased fiscal deficit. The government is pressuring public sector companies to pay huge dividends to the government, just like the Congress used to do. The companies are resisting for the moment but, since the government owns the companies, they will have to surrender in the end. It is true that almost everyone owns a mobile phone today but how many will want to buy smart phones to access digital banking. A man earning Rs 10,000 a month can hardly afford a smart phone for Rs 6,000. Not one of the eminent professors has talked about the rupee. If the value of a currency falls the central bank may support it by increasing interest rate and by reducing money supply by increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio, or CRR. Demonetization was the mother of all CRRs, sucking Rs 15.4 trillion out of circulation. One would have expected the rupee to have become stronger against the dollar but it is hovering at around 68 to the dollar. Once enough new money comes into circulation will the rupee go into free fall? Will someone assure us that the rupee is safe?

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