Sunday, January 15, 2017

Old Chinese proverbs may not suffice, we need some new ones.

Although no such saying apparently exists in the Chinese language, those who are not Chinese think that "May you live in interesting times" is an old Chinese curse. An authentic Chinese proverb says,"Better to be a dog in a peaceful time. than to be a human in a chaotic (warring) period." Both the proverbs may come true for China in the coming months. China is to seal its border with Pakistan to prevent terrorists sneaking into the Xinjiang region, the home of the Muslim Uighur people. At the same time, China protects terrorists in Pakistan who mount attacks against India. It is diverting the waters of the Brahmaputra River by building dams on its tributaries. Barring a catastrophic event, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the US on Friday. Trump has repeatedly said that he is not willing to accept the huge US trade deficit, which is nearly $800 billion per year. The trade deficit with China was nearly half that amount, at $367 billion in 2015. Trump has promised to impose a tax of 45% on Chinese imports. China has threatened to hit back by stopping US imports but it has much more to lose. Writing in Forbes, Gordon G Chang says that Xi Jinping is at the World Economic Forum at Davos, where he will be asking for greater investment in China, but he will have some convincing to do because he has been penalising foreign businesses to give unfair advantage to local ones. After Trump accepted a phone call from Taiwan's President, Tsai Ing-Wen, China reacted sharply, reminding Trump that there can be no change in 'One China Policy', under which Taiwan is supposed to be a province of China. Why China thinks that it can threaten every country in the world is a mystery. India has been kept weak by its politicians but not the US. MIT Professor, Yasheng Huang writes,"There is no method to Trump's madness." "Trump is antagonizing China for no good reason. Worse, by announcing that the US will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- designed, at least in part, to shape global trade and investment flows, according to Western rules, rather than China's mercantilist vision -- Trump is also abandoning a US policy that could have checked China's surging influence in Asia," he writes. Really? Almost all Asian countries, except the rogue states of North Korea and Pakistan, will be glad to see a complete breakdown of China. China's economy is suspect. China's debt burden has reached 250% of GDP, much of it corporate debt. Corporate taxes are very high in China and profits of some companies are less than 2%, writes Zhang Jun. Wonder if there is an old Chinese proverb about getting bitten if you play with venomous snakes. 

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