Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Are Indians the most amused people in the world?

India is a loincloth economy where everyone, except politicians and civil servants, is expected to live in loincloths, because of the example set by the Father of the Nation, MK Gandhi. Our leaders are proud that the Hunger Index for India has dropped from 46.4 in 1992 to 28.5 in 2016. We are above Pakistan and Zambia but below Bangladesh, Laos, Mali and Guinea. Naturally our leaders work tirelessly round the clock to serve the numerous poor who vote them back to power, in their gratitude. The recent demonetization of high value notes was solely for the benefit of the poor, who cheered to the rafters because it was perceived to be hurting the rich by delegitimizing their black money, even though Frank Holmes wrote in the Forbes that it reduces our freedom and Pronab Sen wrote that it will damage the economy, perhaps permanently. All this service for the poor needs a lot of money. One way of getting money is to borrow from the market. This year the government set a target Rs 4.2 trillion. This leads to fiscal deficit, which means that the government spends more than it raises in taxes. At 6.70% our deficit is less than that of Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Argentina but more than other emerging market nations. At 28.1% of GDP the government expenditure is less than that of China and Vietnam but higher than other countries so, naturally, at 68.5% of GDP our debt is the highest in the region. For some reason revenue calculation is done in Purchasing Power Parity against the dollar. Why that is relevant when most of the debt is in Indian rupees is difficult to understand. Expenditure is only going to increase as politicians keep increasing handouts in a bid to bribe the poor but the government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit below 3.5%. According to Professor Himanshu of JNU in Delhi, the government does not publish relevant figures on expenditure and tax data, so the figure for economic growth is a bit of flimflam. The other way of financing expenditure is to raise taxes. That is where the annual circus, The Budget, comes in. Everyone begs for lower taxes. The Finance Minister must feel like a God, floating high above us, throwing manna down to the begging populace. Naushad Forbes, President of the Confederation of Indian Industry writes about how more investment is required to create more jobs and then begs for lower corporate tax at 18%. We the people are begging for a reduction in personal income tax because an income of Rs 250,000 is totally inadequate for survival. The auto industry is begging for some help, while real estate fellows beg for 'tax incentives'. Meanwhile, the GST will probably be a nightmare for companies, with multiple rates and horrendous paperwork, while Andy Mukherjee, writing for Bloomberg, is incensed by a presumed tax on sale of Indian assets by foreign investment funds. Aren't we lucky to have a bunch of jokers keeping us amused?

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