Zooming up, or sideways?

"India, currently the world's fifth-largest economy, is on track to potentially surpass Japan and claim the title of the third-largest global economy by 2030, according to the latest report from S&P Global Market Intelligence." TN. "According to the PTI report, the Indian economy has shown remarkable resilience and consistent growth throughout 2023, building on the substantial expansion experienced in 2021 and 2022." "The Indian economic growth is majorly driven by strong private consumption in the recent period, even as two new drivers of growth have emerged, the Finance Ministry said in its latest monthly economic review." ET. The two new "drivers of growth" are "industrial activity firming up" and "the gradual strengthening of investment demand". Belief in India's economic growth is pervasive. "Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee are not all that concerned that the liabilities of India's households are increasing, or that their savings are falling. To the contrary, the minutes of their latest meeting show some members of the top interest rate-setting body feel that credit based consumption might become a 'self- fulfilling prophecy' that will propel economic growth." The Print. On the other hand, "The RBI has been caught between a rock and a hard place, trying to support growth in the face of shrinking fiscal space and an external situation that is worsening by the day. There is also no respite from the domestic market, since with the general election approaching pre-poll announcements of freebies is gaining momentum across states." BT. Most of the consumer demand is from urban areas even though "The bulk of India lives in rural areas," wrote N Madhavan. "A recent study by NielsenIQ put rural demand in Q2 at 200-300 basis points lower than urban demand." "Unseasonal rainfall in the first quarter of 2023-24 resulted in significant crop damage and lower output," and higher inflation in rural areas hurt spending. "In fact, rural inflation in September 2023 was higher at 5.33% than urban inflation of 4.65%." "The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing has been over 57 for all six months of this fiscal year, while the services PMI has been above 58.5," wrote Madan Sabnavis. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 6% in the first 5 months of 2023-24, but "growth for durable and non-durable goods has been at -1% and +7.4%. The higher growth in non-durable goods comes over a negative growth rate last year - the famous base effect." "Inflation has averaged 6.3% in the last three years and 5.5% in the current year," and households have been spending by running down their savings. Growth of lending in the housing sector has been extremely unequal, showing that economic growth has been K-shaped, wrote Vivek Kaul. Priority sector loans for properties costing between Rs 2.5 and Rs 3.5 million went up by Rs 137.76 billion from June 2022 to June 2023 while non-priority loans for more expensive housing went up by Rs 2.47 trillion, nearly 17 times as more. The religious festival season runs from October to January. Will the gods help?