Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Savers are spenders.

"India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment, according to World Bank's latest India Development Update (IDU)." World Bank. "This resilience was underpinned by robust domestic demand, strong public infrastructure investment and a strengthening financial sector." "The IDU expects that global headwinds will continue to persist and intensify due to high global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish global demand." "In this context, the World Bank forecasts India's GDP growth for FY23/24 to be at 6.3%." "India's manufacturing sector is riding the tailwinds arising from a Western shift in interest away from China," wrote Nageswaran, Unnikrishnan& Guru. "For example, India's electronic exports to the US (as shown by data under the HS-85 category) shifted from a trade deficit of about $300 million in 2017 to a surplus of $3.12 billion in 2022." "Within electronics, the largest increase came from mobile phones, the exports of which to the US grew by 48% between fiscal years 2020-21 and 2021-22." "India's per capita income at $3,000, or about Rs 240,000 per annum is the lowest among G20 countries." "To get to a reasonable development status, India's national income must rise at 7-8% in real terms ( i.e., after adjusting for inflation) every year at least for a couple of decades," wrote Ajit Ranade. "One of the most important requirements for high income growth is the national rate of savings." "India's highest national savings rate of about 37% of GDP was attained in 2010-11. Currently, it is about 30% of GDP, a fall of 7%. This needs to be reversed." "There is no distress in household savings as is being discussed in some circles, the finance ministry said." TOI. "Citing data, the ministry said between June 2020 and March 2023, the stock of household gross financial assets went up by 37.6% and the stock of household gross financial liabilities went up by 42.6% - a minimal difference between the two." An adverse difference of 5% between savings and debt may be minimal for those with guaranteed taxpayer-funded luxury but it indicates that the poor are going into debt to survive while the rich are saving. "RBI data on personal loans provides us with evidence...Key among them are real estate loans and vehicle loans," the ministry said. Exactly. "According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), net household savings in 2022-23 - the Indian financial year runs from April to March - were only 5.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That's down from 8% of GDP in 2019-20 and 11.5% in the year the pandemic hit," wrote Mihir Sharma. "Household financial liabilities rose sharply to 5.8 percent of GDP in the last financial year. The ratio had stood at 3.8 percent the previous year." "If a country does not save, it does not grow." Those who are spending are also saving. Those who can't spend, just borrow.   

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