Monday, October 09, 2023

Just 0.07% are octopus.

"India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY22/23 at 7.2%." "The resilience was underpinned by domestic demand, strong public infrastructure investment and a strengthening financial sector. Bank credit growth increased to 15.8% in the first quarter of FY23/24 compared with 13.3% in the first quarter of FY22/23." World Bank. "Retailers are cautiously optimistic this festive season as the overall market sentiment remains tepid due to high inflation, a high base effect, and greater focus on profitability." India Today. "Brands in fashion jewelry and footwear are expecting double-digit growth possibly up to 20% in the third quarter." "Number of millionaires in India is projected to grow by 105% by 2026, as per Credit Suisse report." ET.  "Post pandemic, there has been a surge in spending on luxury in India. From acquiring luxury real estate to luxury cars; from splurging on destination weddings to exotic holidays, gourmet food and dining experiences, the list goes on." "Rise in the stock markets in the past two decades, integration of economy through infrastructure and digital payments systems, and foreign companies creating high-income jobs have led to a booming 'octopus class' in India which is fueling consumption growth." ET. "The 'octopus class', according to (Saurabh) Mukherjea and (Nandita) Rajhansa, comprises nearly two lakh (200,000) families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% if India's wealth." In a small town a smart trader takes bank loans to expand his business, then goes into a car dealership, then into real estate and finally into politics, thus creating a conglomerate and "this conglomerate will steadily push its tentacles into every economically lucrative activity in that area. That's why they call them 'octopus class'." In big cities highly paid executives with share options become dollar millionaires and control big companies. The reason why loans are relatively cheap is because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the interest rate fixed at 6.5% for the fourth time this month (TOI) despite consumer price (CPI) inflation coming in at 6.83% in August from 7.4% in July. ET. The RBI's paralysis is because inflation is due to rising food prices and interest rates will not increase food supply. On the other hand, "Nearly 93% of Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion) budget allocated to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) for this financial year has been used in just the first half of the year." The Wire. These are poor people and their spending is mainly on food. Since 2004, "Most of the increase in salaried work has been in informal salaried employment. The proportion of formal salaried stagnated in this period at around 5% whereas informal salaried increased from 7% to 12%," wrote Abraham, Basole and Ameen. Just 1 million out of a total population of 1,432 million (worldometer) or about 0.07% of the population. Consumption of this 1 million pushes up prices. The rest struggle to buy food. And, it's all going to just about 0.07%. Shout it out loud - we are the fastest growing fifth largest economy in the world. ET.        

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