Roaring growth. For some.

"RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has said that GDP growth for the second quarter of FY24 is likely to surpass expectations based on early indicators. The central bank had projected a GDP growth of 6.5% for the second quarter, which aligns with the full-year growth forecast for FY24." TOI. "Noted economist Kaushik Basu has said that the Indian economy is in a 'sweet spot' and that India is in a better position than other countries to deal with the current global economic challenges," and "one of the main reasons India is in a sweet spot now is that China has slid behind." BT. But then, the GDP in Afghanistan contracted by 20.7% in 2021, Sri Lanka contracted by 7.8% in 2022, Myanmar grew by 3.0% in 2022, Nepal grew by 5.6% in 2022 and Pakistan grew by 6.2% in 2022 after contracting by about 1% in 2020. World Bank. That's all our neighbors. So, do those numbers make our spot sweeter? India's middle class "is the fastest rising segment of India's population, growing at 6% per year, while the middle-class in Europe and the US has already matured and is growing at less than 1%," wrote Ejaz Ghani. "The middle class currently represents 31% of India's population and is expected to reach 40% by 2031." "This class is driving consumption growth, which in turn is driving rapid economic growth." "Burgeoning demand for all kinds of durables, from cars to refrigerators, can be traced to this class." Monica Halan admired the "growth roar" of the Indian middle class. Between 2011-12 and 2020-21, income of those earning between Rs 550,000 and Rs 2.5 million grew by 20%, those earning between Rs 250 million and Rs 500 million saw a growth of 24% and income of those earning Rs 100 million grew 20%. And since the Gini coefficient (Investopedia), fell from 35.7 in 2011 to 34.2 in 2021, according to the World Bank, inequality has actually fallen. These numbers do not account for inflation. "For the April-June quarter (2023), the real monthly earnings of regular wage workers have declined 0.5% per annum compared to their 2019 level." "The decline was greater when compared to 2017-18, at an average 1.8% per annum," wrote Prof Himanshu. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) showed that "the unemployment rate in the country has fallen to a six-year low of 3.2%." DH. However, "In the non-agricultural sector, the share of people who had informal employment increased from 71.4% in 2020-21 to 74.3% in 2022-23." And "the share of the self-employed persons has risen from 55.6% in 2020-21 to 57.3% in 2022-23, and the share of regular wage-earners and salaried persons has fallen from 21.1% to 20.9%." "India's mission to bring its workforce into formal jobs is faltering," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The government brought in the goods and services tax (GST) because "To them higher revenue collections mean a more formal economy. And vice versa." While the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme has created fewer than 200,000 jobs. "This when 40 million Indians are enrolled in higher education." Sugar-coating can hide bitterness. Does not eliminate it.

Please to remember.

"The Supreme Court on Monday (yesterday) rejected former Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia's bail plea in the Delhi excise scam matter, and directed the trial in the cases probed against him by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) be completed within the next eight months. HT. Eight months will take us to June 2024, by which time the general election, which must be held by May 2024, (wikipedia) will be over. The Delhi government is formed by AAP, and Kejriwal is the Chief Minister. In 2020, "In almost a clean sweep, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) created history second time in a row with victory on 62 seats in Delhi assembly elections. The magnitude of AAP's sweep kept the BJP to single digits." Last year, "The AAP...claimed an emphatic win over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2022 MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) election." HT.  Also in 2022, the AAP "scored a landslide win in Punjab with leads in 92 seats in the 117-seat assembly." NDTV. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party the BJP won an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha with 303 out of 543 seats in the general election in 2019. wikipedia. The BJP won all 7 seats in Delhi with the AAP winning the 3 seats in the National Capital Territory (NCR). delhi.gov.in. Why is Sisodia in prison? Because the AAP government in Delhi instituted a new excise policy which reduced the cost of alcohol in Delhi and nicely decorated private shops treated customers with respect. Prices of drinks dropped by 30-40%. TOI. Lieutenant Governor (sounds very British) VK Saxena, appointed by the BJP Central government, asked the CBI to look into lower excise duty due to "deliberate and gross procedural lapses", which apparently amounted to a scam. ET. How it can be a scam if lower excise duties were being passed on to customers is a mystery. We are back to the old system, with very high prices, dirty shops and surly attendants barking at customers and serving them with disdain.  Representing the BJP Central government, "Attorney General R Venkataramani expressed his perspective to the Supreme Court...regarding the challenges to the 'opaque' electoral bond system for finding political parties. He emphasized the Constitution does not grant citizens a fundamental right to know the funding sources, urging the Court not to venture into policy matters related to regulating electoral bonds." ET. Not surprising as, "More than 52% of the BJP's political donations, worth Rs 5,271.97 crore (Rs 52.7197 billion), came from electoral bonds as against Rs 1,783.93 crore (Rs 17.8393 billion) amassed by all other national political parties, according to a new report by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR)." The Wire. Perhaps, the Supreme Court will consider that "We the People" have a fundamental right to know the probity of the people we elect to represent us. And, Mr Venkataramani should remember that, although he has been appointed by the BJP Central government, he is the Attorney General for the nation of India and is paid by the taxpayers to reveal the truth. But then, truth can be very inconvenient (The Wire). What do they say about power? And morality?   

Let us feel developed.

"India is estimated to be a $30 trillion developed economy by 2047, preliminary results from the Centre's vision document which is being prepared have shown, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subramaniam said." TOI. "India is currently estimated to be the fifth largest economy with a GDP of $3.7 trillion." "India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI." ET. As of 2022, the US was the top economy with a GDP of $25.5 trillion, China second with $18.0 trillion, Japan $4.2 trillion and Germany $4.1 trillion. Investopedia. So, the Indian economy is expected to multiply by 8 times within just 24 years. Although certain states in India allow the ingestion of certain cannabis products, cannabis is generally banned in India. "The central law that deals with cannabis (weed or marijuana) is the Narcotics Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, 1985(1)." "In general, in India, possession of these drugs is considered a criminal act and can get you in legal serious trouble." TOI. In the US, "Today, support for marijuana legalization has become mainstream among Democratic politicians" and "several marijuana-related bills - including those aiming to decriminalize it on the federal level - have been introduced in Congress. USA News. Nobody has been arrested recently for possession of marijuana. The US is not talking of doubling its economy in the next 24 years, let alone multiplying it 8 times. "In terms of per capita income, India is at $2,500. Singapore was at $2,500 around 1975, South Korea in about 1985, and China got there around 2006. While South Korea and Singapore are now both developed, China is not," wrote Salman Anees Soz. "In the case of Singapore and South Korea, economic growth declined in each decade after the two countries crossed the $2,500 per capita income mark. In China, growth has declined especially sharply since hitting that milestone." "It turns out that getting from $1,000 per capita to $10,000 is much more of a multifaceted challenge than getting from $100 to $1,000, which relies on using low labor costs and putting more people to work," wrote Rahul Jacob. "India now has public debt at 83% of GDP and combined fiscal debt (states and Centre) in double digits, among the highest fiscal deficits in Asia." Slowing global growth, falling foreign direct investment (FDI) and poor health and education outcomes are other impediments. "In recent years, much of the heavy lifting to drive it ahead has been done by outsized government spending. Private investment was expected to join the game (or get 'crowded in'), but a prolonged slump that's proving too slow to reverse has left the economic momentum at risk of flagging off." Mint. Better to legalize cannabis. We will feel highly developed. And happy.  

Taking on the world.

"Eight Indian employees of the Al Dahra company have been sentenced to death penalty by the Court of First Instance of Qatar on Thursday (26 October). The Ministry of External Affairs in a statement expressed deep shock regarding this incident while it awaits detailed judgement." ET. "On August 30 last year, Qatar's intelligence agency picked up the men from their homes in the dead of night." "Since then, they have been kept in solitary confinement, denied bail, and now sentenced to death. All along the Qatari authorities did not specify the reason for the detention to the families of the eight men. Dahra Global Technologies was involved in the training of Qatari Navy." ET. "Qatari State Security, the kingdom's state intelligence agency, is claimed to have intercepted electronic communications establishing that the naval officers were spying on the submarine program," and, apparently, passing the information on to Israel. TN. Of course, Pakistan must have its dirty hand in this nefarious conspiracy against India. "While the Indian government is engaging diplomatically with the Qatari counterparts over the death sentence to eight former Indian Navy officials who were working there, the speculations are high that Pakistan might be behind the issue. In the last year, Pakistani army officials and their Qatar counterparts held several meetings and one of them just days before announcing the verdict." Zee. QED. If Indians are crowing about killing Pakistani assets within Pakistan, retaliation should not be unexpected. "Shahid Latif, a member of the proscribed terrorist organisation Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), was the key conspirator behind the 2016 attack on an Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. He was shot dead by unknown assailants in Pakistan's Sialkot. Latif's shooting was one of the several cases of India's enemies meeting their end in the countries they sought safe haven in." India Today. One such was Hardeep Singh Nijjar who was shot dead in Canada in June. Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that there was reason to believe that Indian agents were behind the killing of the Canadian citizen within Canada. CBC. In response, "Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was 'high on drugs' and his plane was 'full of cocaine', former diplomat Deepak Vohra garnered attention for an allegation." Mint. "The more one ponders over Justin Trudeau's hitjob against India, the more it becomes obvious that he may not be the only player in the sinister game to corner New Delhi." wrote Utpal Kumar. "One wonders if Trudeau was hoodwinked by American agencies which, as per NYT, provided Canada with some information on Nijjar's killing." Canada was asked to withdraw 41 diplomats from India, which it did on 20 October, and also "temporarily suspended visa and in-person consular services in Bengaluru, Chandigarh and Mumbai." ET. "The world of diplomacy has hidden chambers, which is why it is difficult to be judgmental about the expulsion of Canadian diplomats from India." "The thinking is yet to be spelt out but it serves to curb Canada's intelligence on Indian soil," former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar. God help. Nearly the whole world seems to be against India. Actually, they don't need 41 diplomats to spy on India. China is already "monitoring" over 10,000 individuals and organisations. The Wire. Much cheaper to "monitor" India's wholesale surveillance apparatus. Everything is available.    

On the other hand.

Addressing a rally in Jagdalpur in poll-bound Chattisgarh, "Union Home Minister Amit Shah...accused the Congress of encouraging Naxalism and claimed that incidents of Naxal violence have come down by 52% in the nine-year rule of the Narendra Modi government." NDTV. He promised to make the state free of Naxals if the BJP comes to power. Oh, please! Raman Singh of the BJP was the chief minister of the state from 7 December 2008 to 17 December 2018, full 10 years. Pratidin Time. Naxals or Naxalites are Maoist communists who originated "from the town Naxalbari (Naksalbari) in far northern West Bengal state in northeastern India, which was the center of a tribal peasant uprising against local landlords in 1967." Britannica. In a country with a massive population, extreme inequality and abject poverty, Naxals thrive by protecting tribals and villagers from expolitation. wikipedia. "India added two billionaires every three weeks last year and now has 259 billionaires, states the 360 ONE Hurun India Rich List 2023." Wion. "India's rich are cumulatively worth Rs 108 trillion (approximately $1.3 trillion) - an increase of 8.5% compared to last year." On the other hand, "India ranked 111th out of 125 countries in the Global Hunger Index - 2023 with the country reporting the highest child wasting rate at 18.7%." HT. With a score of 28.7, the level of hunger is deemed serious. "The average gross income of individual taxpayers rose 56% from Rs 4.5 lakh (Rs 450,000) to Rs 7 lakh (Rs 700,000) in eight years ending assessment year 2021-22." HT. "On the contrary, individuals earning up to Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) or those with no tax liability, accounting for nearly 60% of the share, experienced a modest growth of just 4.9%." Wion. Saurabh Mukherjea, along with his colleague Nandita Rajhansa, has coined the term 'octopus class'," which "comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as in big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." ET. Just 1 million, when "India's population has reached 1,425,775,850 people, surpassing the number of people in mainland China, according to the UN's estimates." BBC. On the other hand, "According to the latest World Bank data, extreme poverty in India declined in 2021 - after a surge in 2019 and 2020 - but remained above the 2018 level." The Wire. The World Bank sets extreme poverty at $2.15 or about Rs 180 per day in purchasing power parity terms. "PM Narendra Modi...asked space scientists to 'aim for new and ambitious goals including setting up a Bharatiya Antariksha Station (Indian space station) by 2035 and send Indians to the Moon by 2040'." TOI. On the other hand, "The special supplementary reading modules on the Chandrayaan mission brought our by the National Council for Education Research and Training (NCERT) credit Prime Minister Narendra Modi for its success, and mix space science with mythology. The Wire. It's not what we see. It's what is covered up. 

Scavenging engineers.

"It was often mentioned how Indian FLFPR (female labor force participation rate) was lower than many Arab economies (whose rates are lower due to cultural reasons)," wrote Surjit S Bhalla. Not any more. "Using the usual status definition of labor force (employed for at least 30 days) for the age group 15-64.., LFPR for women, at 39.2%, is now within 5 percentage points of the 44% level observed in 2004-05," and "For the age group 25-64 and not one contaminated by school and college enrollments, FLFPR in 2022-23 is observed to be 45.6%." Highly encouraging but, "In 2022, youth unemployment rate in India was at 23.22%, higher than its neighbors Pakistan (11.3%), Bangladesh (12.9%) and Bhutan (14.4%), showed World Bank data," wrote Taniya Roy. China was at 13.2%, Indonesia at 13%, Malaysia 11.7% and Vietnam at 7.4%. "The youth unemployment rate refers to those in the workforce who are aged 15 to 24 years and without a job, but actively seeking one." Lack of employment means that "Manual scavenging is banned in India but the practice is still commonplace, with people forced into it because of rigid caste rules and the lack of other livelihood options," and "In July, the government said that 339 people had died in the past five years while cleaning sewers and septic tanks." BBC. Actually, to break the shackles of caste, India resolutely follows a system of affirmative action with at least 15% of government jobs and seats in higher educational institutions reserved for people designated as Scheduled Caste (SC). Legal Service. In 2021-22, total (girls+ boys) enrollment in primary education stood at 103.4%, upper primary was at 94.7% and secondary at 79.6%. pib.gov.in. In 2020-21, there was a "Significant increase of 28% in enrollment of SC students (total of 5.9 million) and 38% in enrollment of Female SC students" in higher education. pib.gov.in. Free food grains are being provided to over 800 million people till December 2023 and the scheme will probably be extended because of the general election in April-May 2024. NDTV. Given the combination of 100% enrollment in primary education, reservation in higher education and government jobs and provision of free food grains why would people resort to manual scavenging? Possibly because food alone does not fulfill all of their needs and there aren't enough jobs to pay for those needs. Why do they die? Because India has not learnt to build proper sewers. In 2019, "A gigantic sludgy mass the size of a double-decker bus has been removed - by hand - from the sewers of East London, ending a messy 3-week operation." ABC. "The only way to remove the fatberg was, first, to loosen it up bit by bit by blasting it with high-powered jets, then remove the debris by hand before sucking the substance out with tankers. It was done by engineers, not SC. Because sewers in London are more than twice the height of a man, while here a man gets immersed in the muck. Some people, including women, are so desperate that they resort to instant loans and are then abused, humiliated and blackmailed to force them to repay. "At least 60 Indians have killed themselves after being abused and threatened." BBC. Life is tough in India. Despite Mr Bhalla's percentages.     

Gaza and Dubai.

"Israel bombarded Hamas targets as it prepared for a ground invasion, with Russia warning the conflict could spread beyond the Middle East, and as the world powers failed to secure plans to deliver critical humanitarian aid to the besieged Gaza strip." Reuters. US President Joe Biden said "he believed one reason the Islamist Hamas group attacked southern Israel, killing 1,400 people and taking more than 200 hostages of different nationalists, was to prevent normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia." Two draft resolutions, one by the US and the other by Russia, failed to pass at the United Nations Security Council. Both resolutions called for a "humanitarian ceasefire" or a "humanitarian pause" to allow delivery of aid to civilians and condemned Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians. "Key differences in the text included a specific mention in the US-backed proposal of States' inherent right to self-defence, and a call in the Russian-led one for an immediate cancellation by Israeli forces of the evacuation order for civilians to head into southern Gaza." UN. Of course, the hidden US agenda is to legitimise its proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, while the Russian proposal would allow Hamas killers to hide behind civilians. "Hamas has released two US hostages" while "Israel confirmed they had received mother and daughter Judith and Natalie Raanan from Hamas at the Gaza boundary." BBC. This could be a tactic to exert pressure on Biden, who is up for re-election on 5 November 2024, and who would hopefully pressure Israel to cease its attacks on Hamas. An Israeli hostage, "Yocheved Lifshitz, 85, was one of two elderly women freed late on Monday, leaving around 220 hostages still in the hands of Hamas, including both of their husbands." "Inside Gaza, a group of hostages were led into what Lifshitz called a 'spider's web' of damp tunnels, built by Hamas beneath the narrow coastal territory, and eventually reached a large hall." Reuters. "While extensive, international negotiations have now led to the release of four hostages captured by Hamas, scores of foreign nationals in Gaza, including as many as 600 Americans, are still being blocked by the US-designated terrorist group from crossing into Egypt, according to Biden administration officials." "According to US officials, the Egyptian government has been hesitant to allow civilians to exit Gaza through the Rafah gate because of the country's intense concern over security threats posed by terrorist activities on the Sinai peninsula." ABC. Exactly. All Arab governments see Palestinians as terrorists. "Qatar's ruling emir has said that Israel should not be given 'a green light' for unconditional killing." India Today. Just ask Hamas to release all hostages and use billions of dollars in aid to develop Gaza into a Dubai of the Mediterranean. Dubai is an Arab city state with a per capita GDP of $46,665. wikipedia. But then, that will not satisfy their urge for mass murder.        

Zooming up, or sideways?

"India, currently the world's fifth-largest economy, is on track to potentially surpass Japan and claim the title of the third-largest global economy by 2030, according to the latest report from S&P Global Market Intelligence." TN. "According to the PTI report, the Indian economy has shown remarkable resilience and consistent growth throughout 2023, building on the substantial expansion experienced in 2021 and 2022." "The Indian economic growth is majorly driven by strong private consumption in the recent period, even as two new drivers of growth have emerged, the Finance Ministry said in its latest monthly economic review." ET. The two new "drivers of growth" are "industrial activity firming up" and "the gradual strengthening of investment demand". Belief in India's economic growth is pervasive. "Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee are not all that concerned that the liabilities of India's households are increasing, or that their savings are falling. To the contrary, the minutes of their latest meeting show some members of the top interest rate-setting body feel that credit based consumption might become a 'self- fulfilling prophecy' that will propel economic growth." The Print. On the other hand, "The RBI has been caught between a rock and a hard place, trying to support growth in the face of shrinking fiscal space and an external situation that is worsening by the day. There is also no respite from the domestic market, since with the general election approaching pre-poll announcements of freebies is gaining momentum across states." BT. Most of the consumer demand is from urban areas even though "The bulk of India lives in rural areas," wrote N Madhavan. "A recent study by NielsenIQ put rural demand in Q2 at 200-300 basis points lower than urban demand." "Unseasonal rainfall in the first quarter of 2023-24 resulted in significant crop damage and lower output," and higher inflation in rural areas hurt spending. "In fact, rural inflation in September 2023 was higher at 5.33% than urban inflation of 4.65%." "The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing has been over 57 for all six months of this fiscal year, while the services PMI has been above 58.5," wrote Madan Sabnavis. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 6% in the first 5 months of 2023-24, but "growth for durable and non-durable goods has been at -1% and +7.4%. The higher growth in non-durable goods comes over a negative growth rate last year - the famous base effect." "Inflation has averaged 6.3% in the last three years and 5.5% in the current year," and households have been spending by running down their savings. Growth of lending in the housing sector has been extremely unequal, showing that economic growth has been K-shaped, wrote Vivek Kaul. Priority sector loans for properties costing between Rs 2.5 and Rs 3.5 million went up by Rs 137.76 billion from June 2022 to June 2023 while non-priority loans for more expensive housing went up by Rs 2.47 trillion, nearly 17 times as more. The religious festival season runs from October to January. Will the gods help?    

Anywhere, but not here.

"The Palestinian group Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel on 7 October, killing more than 1,400 people and taking scores of hostages." BBC. "Palestinian health officials say hundreds of people have been killed in an explosion at a crowded Gaza hospital." NPR. "Israelis and Palestinians have blamed each other for the hospital bombing." "Some Western countries have called for an investigation, without pointing a finger at this stage, while Arab states have blamed Israel." Reuters. "The current US assessment of Tuesday's deadly explosion at a hospital in Gaza is that Israel was 'not responsible,' according to a spokesperson for the National Security Council." Axios. "The Democratic and Republican leaders of the Senate and House intelligence committees both issued statements saying after being briefed on the matter that they are confident the blast was the result of a failed rocket launch and not due to Israeli military action." Most people in the Middle East will not believe Israel or the US. People there are addicted to conspiracy theories. Till today some believe that the 9/11 attacks were staged by the Pentagon (HT) as an excuse to attack Bin Laden. Others are convinced that Zionists, and especially Mossad, were responsible. ADL. "Jordan has cancelled a summit it was to host in Amman on Wednesday (yesterday) with US President Joe Biden and the Egyptian and Palestinian leaders to discuss Gaza, Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said." Reuters. King Abdullah of Jordan "has blamed Israel for a blast at a Gaza Hospital that killed 500 Palestinians" and that Israel's response "went beyond the right of self defence to collective punishment of Palestinian civilians." However, in 1970, the present king's father, King Hussein expelled Palestinians from Jordan. "Jordanian troops began a major assault against PLO targets on 17 September." "Subsequently, Jordan's army defeated the guerrillas on the ground after ten days' fighting and thousands of casualties, including heavy civilian losses in Palestinian refugee camps." Encyclopedia. This month is known as 'Black September'. "Among the experts and military leaders was also a brigadier named Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq." "Though Zia-ul-Haq's exact role in Black September is debatable, many have called him a 'butcher' of Palestinians." News18. Zia became President of Pakistan from 1978-88. Large number of Palestinians expelled from Jordan ended up in Lebanon and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) mounted raids into Israel, leading to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the civil war which destroyed the country to this day. Britannica. PLO leader Yasser Arafat supported Saddam Hussein's occupation of Kuwait (CNN), which led to reprisals by Kuwaitis on Palestinians once Kuwait was liberated. LA Times. Israel wants Gaza's civilians to leave Gaza so that it can attack Hamas unhindered, but Egypt and Jordan have opposed this move because they fear that the Palestinians will not be allowed to return and will become permanent refugees in their countries. AP. Left unsaid is that wherever Palestinians have settled terrorism has followed. Iran, Turkey and Pakistan use them to further their own agenda. But no one wants them.  

Fetus or baby.

"The Supreme Court...turned down the plea of a married woman seeking immediate termination of her 27-week pregnancy, relying on latest medical report which indicated that there were no fetal abnormalities, nor was the health of a 27-year-old mother of two at risk, to let her end her pregnancy beyond the cut-off period fixed under the law." HT. The Medical Termination of Pregnancy (Amendment) Bill, 2020 "allows abortion to be done on the advice on one doctor up to 20 weeks, and two doctors in the case of certain categories of women between 20 and 24 weeks." PRS. An incensed Mihira Sood, who "is a lawyer and scholar in the field of women's rights" finds the Supreme Court decision similar to laws in the US and Ireland. "This is unsurprising. After all, patriarchy transcends national barriers, and has many weapons in its toolkit." This is breathtakingly glib and ignorant. "The woman approached the court for an abortion at 25 weeks, within days of becoming aware of the pregnancy." Why go to court? Because doctors must have refused to terminate her pregnancy, and since almost all obstetricians in Delhi are female they would be incapable of patriarchy. According to The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) "rates of neonatal survival to discharge at this time range dramatically from 23% to 27% for births at 23 weeks, 42% for births at 24 weeks, and 67% to 76% for births at 25 weeks of gestation." Would Ms Sood recommend killing a live baby and would she do it herself? "The panic over women controlling their own bodies is still prevalent, even without the religious baggage, and the ability to get an abortion still depends on male family members and authority figures, rather than a woman's own choice," wrote Sood. But, "Under the Indian family and public policy laws, the parents must provide child support for the child's sustenance." Vakil search. Thus, according to Ms Sood, the father should have no say in the survival of his unborn child but pay child support if the mother lets it live. Parroting Western feminist ideology. The fetus is not a part of the mother's body because the womb is actually outside the woman's body, like her alimentary canal, 50% of its DNA are derived from the father, it may have different blood group and a male child can never be part of a woman's body, explained Dr Derek Conte. In human females, pregnancy lasts for 40 weeks or 10 months. ACOG. The whole of pregnancy is designed to create a viable baby and the mother's body changes to extrude the baby when the time comes, leading to labor and delivery (healthline). Would the mother survive if she got rid of her heart, lungs or liver which are real parts of her body? Doctors must and will refuse to kill a viable baby. Feminist lawyers like Ms Sood could volunteer.

Fantasy sports.

"The latest Ipsos 'What Worries the World Global Survey'," in September "shows the Global South is driving optimism with Asian markets being most optimistic. India was placed third in the pecking order, after Singapore (82%) and Indonesia (80%)." "Global citizens on the contrary were more pessimistic with only 38% believing their country is moving in the right direction." To prove the point, "Consumer confidence touched a four-year high in September." Mint. "The Current Situation Index (CSI) reached a four-year high on the back of respondents' better assessment of current general economic situation and employment conditions in September 2023," The RBI said. "During the month CSI touched 92.2." What the breathless report does not mention is that anything below 100 is still negative. A higher negative, but negative nonetheless. "India's industrial production (IIP) in August rose to 10.3% on an annual basis after growing 5.7% in July."ET. This is supported by the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August at 58.6 (above 50 is positive) but fell slightly to 57.5 in September. Naturally, "India Inc is all set to report an 8-10 percent jump in revenues for the September quarter while profit margins will also witness an expansion, an arm of rating agency Crisil said." BS. "This will be the first time in four quarters that the revenue growth will see an increase, it said." "Gross direct tax receipts totaled Rs 11.1 lakh crore (Rs 11.1 trillion) up to October 9, 2023 - nearly 18% higher than the comparable period of last year, official data." TOI. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "now expects India's 2023-24 GDP growth to be 6.3%, a 20-basis point increase from the July numbers." HT. "India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $19.37 billion in September, the lowest in five months," as "Merchandise exports from India declined by 2.6% to $34.47 billion in September as compared to $35.39 billion recorded in the same month last year. India's imports fell from $63.37 billion in September 2022 to 53.84 billion in September 2023, a year-on-year decline of 15%." DH. "Powered by the strength and skills of our people, India is a global bright spot, a powerhouse of growth and innovation," tweeted PM Modi. TN. "The joblessness rate in urban areas for people aged 15 years and above stood at 6.6% in the April-June 2023 period,...the ministry of statistics and programme implementation's four-monthly periodic labour force survey (PLFS) showed." HT. "The labour force participation rate (LFPR) is at a four-quarter high of 48.8%." Which means 51.2% of the workforce is not working or even looking for work. Unfortunately, JP Morgan analysts expect a "washout" year for the 2023-24 financial year. ET. And, "India's impressive recent economic gains are unlikely to displace China as the world economy's main growth engine anytime soon, according to HSBC Holdings PLC." ET. Economic growth is like fantasy sports. Just pick a number.

The camp called India.

"The Delhi High Court...issued fresh notice to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on a plea by an NGO seeking damages, claiming its documentary 'India: The Modi Question' casts a slur on the country's reputation and makes false and defamatory imputations against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian judiciary." ET. Firstly, the documentary was aired in the UK where it is not considered defamatory  (BBC), and, second, Modi is not India. The documentary was banned in India (Time) which naturally gave it greater publicity and increased curiosity in people. As is usual, the police responded with extreme malice. An unrepentant BBC published an article on how the Indian government is terrorising journalists in Kashmir. "The BBC has spent more than a year investigating accusations against the Indian government that it is running a sinister and systematic campaign to intimidate and silence the press in the region." BBC. Not just Kashmir. "Police in the Indian capital, Delhi, have raided the homes of prominent journalists and authors in connection with an investigation into the funding of news website NewsClick." BBC. Apparently because it received funds from China. This follows from a report in the New York Times that NewsClick received money from Neville Roy Singham who is a communist, lives in Shanghai and is "associated with the propaganda arm of the Communist Party of China (CPC)". ET. The Wire has analysed stories on NewsClick and found that all the journalists arrested had been critical of Mr Modi and the government but not publicists for China. Prof Gyan Prakash, who wrote the book, The Emergency Chronicles, Indira Gandhi and Democracy's Turning Point, says that the Modi government is much more dangerous. Indira Gandhi imposed the Emergency in India for 21 months, from 25 June 1975 to 21 March 1977. "The Emergency is often regarded as a dark phase in independent India's history because this period was marked by unbridled state incarceration, stifling of dissent, and government crackdown on civil liberties." HT. The Modi government is much more dangerous because: Firstly, it wants to control what citizens think and, second, which is much much worse is "to achieve total domination of the person by killing the juridical person in a human being or in a citizen. And you do that by creating a system of law, outside the normal penal system ." Instead of using the normal system, "You charge him through the UAPA (Unlawful Activities [Prevention] Amendment Act), which creates a completely different circle around this person." "The concentration camp was outside the normal penal system. People who went there, had no right! ...and so you create a criminal, you create a terrorist by completely killing all the juridical protection a citizen has, or a human being has in a system of law." The Wire. The danger is, even if Modi loses power, the next government will continue with these pernicious laws because they provide complete power over the people. At least the Americans liberated Jews from Nazi concentration camps (images). Who will liberate us?     

Silence of Mr 'Chowkidar'.

"Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror group's leader Shahid Latif, the mastermind of the 2016 attack on Indian Air Force base in Pathankot, and his security guard Hashim Ali were shot dead by three gunmen while they were offering prayer in a mosque in Daska city of Punjab province, over 100 km from Lahore." DH. "Prayer leader and close associate of Latif, Maulana Ahad was also hit by bullets and was shifted to a hospital where he succumbed to his wounds." "Without naming the country, the Inspector General of Police (IGP) Punjab Dr Usman Anwar said a 'rogue nation and its hostile intelligence agency are involved in executing the terror attack in Pakistan'." He means India, of course. On 1 October, "Mufti Qaiser Farooq was gunned down by 'unknown men' in Karachi, Pakistan media reported. He was a close associate of Hafeez Saeed, the mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack." HT. A long list of enemies of India have been killed in recent months, including Khalistanis Avtar Singh Khanda in a Birmingham hospital of a mysterious illness, Paramjit Singh Panjwar shot dead in Lahore, Harwinder Rinda in a Lahore hospital of a drug overdose, and Rinda's aide Happy Sanghera killed in Italy." FP. Normally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi should have been boasting about how he has been bashing enemies of India single-handedly but there is an eerie silence from the PM. Before the 2019 general election, "Calling himself the nation's 'chowkidar' (guard), PM Modi said, 'It was this chowkidar's government that had the courage to conduct surgical strikes on land, sky and space'." TOI. This was humility, guts and decisiveness rolled into one. His supporters would have choked up. A surgical strike was carried out by Indian Army commandos on a Pakistani army post inside Pakistan on 29 September 2016." wikipedia. Again in April 2019, Modi took credit for bombing of a suspected terrorist training camp at Balakot in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and even boasted of scaring Pakistan with 12 missiles if captured pilot Abhinandan Varthaman was not returned unharmed. TIE. Although the weather had turned bad he gave the go ahead for the attack. "One was secrecy...second, I said I have a raw vision, the clouds can benefit us too. We can escape the radar." HT. Such leadership! Sniff. Of course, clouds don't stop radar. But, who cares? It's the vision that counts. The reason Modi is unable to take credit for all those killed is because Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of a targeted killing of Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. CBC. India denied the accusations and retaliated ferociously by stopping visas to Canadians and asking Canada to withdraw over 40 of its diplomatic staff from India. BBC. Undaunted, in phone calls to the President of the UAE and the King of Jordan, Trudeau  brought up relations between India and Canada and emphasized the importance of "respecting the rule of law and the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations". News18. If Modi claims credit for the other killings everyone will immediately assume that India killed Nijjar as well. It's as if his ace of spade has been trumped by the two of clubs. How frustrating.

Need for a snake.

"India's retail inflation eased to 5.02% in September on an annual basis as against 6.83% in August, showed data released by the ministry of statistics." ET. "Professional forecasters, comprising economists surveyed by the RBI, projected that the headline CPI inflation will ease from 6.6% in the September quarter to 5.5% in the December quarter. Further projections indicated a decrease to 5.1% in the March 2024 quarter and a range of 5.2-4% in the first half of 2024-25." So how prescient is the RBI? The RBI has a mandate to keep the consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side. ET. "A target it has failed to achieve in seven out of the past 12 months," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "As late as June 2023, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) had projected inflation in the second quarter (June-September 2023) at 5.2%, only to raise it sharply to 6.2% at its very next meeting in August 2023. Since the first two months have averaged 7.1%, the actual number is likely to be 7%." "The last time inflation was down to little over 4% was in January 2021, when inflation touched 4.06%, only to increase to 5.03% the very next month." In fact the RBI has not attained its target of 4% since October of 2019. RI. An inflation rate of 5.02% in September may be within the RBI's "tolerance level" but a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of prices at 7% is almost lethal for the multitudes of India's poor. "According to the GHI (Global Hunger Index) report, India's child wasting rate, at 18.7% was the highest among countries on the index; its child stunting rate at 35.5% was the 15th highest; the prevalence of undernourishment was 16.6%; and the under five mortality rate was 3.1%." TOI. The RBI has various weapons to fight rising prices. One of them is the repo rate at which the RBI lends to banks and that sets the lending rates for the economy. The MPC held the repo rate at 6.5% for the fourth time since April 2023. TOI. The RBI's motive is to keep the government's borrowing cost as low as possible. So, the RBI is selling dollars to support the exchange rate of the rupee instead. "Abrdn Plc reasons that the RBI is probably tapping its large foreign-reserve stockpile to defend its currency to keep imported inflation in check." ET. The bond market is wise to the RBI's tricks, so the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds is consistently above 7.0%. Investing.com. The RBI's reserves belong to the nation but this government thinks it has a right to spend all the reserves to win elections. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) refused the government's proposal to extract Rs 2-3 lakh crore (Rs 2-3 trillion) from its balance sheet for pre-election expenditure ahead of Lok Sabha polls in the following year, former central bank deputy governor Viral Acharya said in a new prelude to his book, Quest for Restoring Financial Stability in India." The Wire. This prompted Prime Minister Modi to compare then Governor Urjit Patel to "a snake who sits over a hoard of money", wrote Subhash Garg. Urjit Patel resigned prematurely as his position became untenable. ET. RBI's tricks to try and help the government are also helping the very rich, as the number of individuals with wealth over Rs 10 billion increased by 219 to 1,319, as per the 360 ONE Wealth Hurun India Rich List 2023. Apparently, India is the fastest growing major economy. CNN. Growing have lots and have nots. We really need a "snake" to protect us.       

No supplies for Hamas.

"Hamas has made an urgent plea to international relief organisations to deliver essential medical and humanitarian supplies to Gaza, where Israel's ongoing airstrikes have exacerbated a deepening humanitarian crisis, CNN reported. The region faces the risk of starvation and the imminent depletion of fuel as Israel has withheld critical supplies in response to Hamas's recent acts of violence." The Print. Surely, Hamas is mocking Palestinians suffering due to Israel's blockade and bombing. All it has to do is to release the  estimated 150 Israelis that it has kidnapped and is holding as hostages." NYT. "They include civilians, soldiers, people with disabilities, children, grandparents and even a 9-month old baby." The cowards think that they will be safe with so many hostages as human shields to hide behind, and will be able to negotiate a commitment from the Israeli government not to extract revenge at a later date in exchange for safe release of the hostages. Not surprisingly, "Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said every Hamas member was a 'dead man' after the first meeting of his country's emergency government." BBC. "The death toll in Israel has reached 1,200, More than 1,100 people have been killed by Isreali air strikes in Gaza." "On Monday, Hamas said that four Israeli hostages had been killed in an Israeli strike, though the claim could not be independently verified." In taking so many hostages, Hamas apparently thought they could free thousands of Palestinians in Israeli jails. NPR. "When Islamist group Hamas launched a spectacular attack against Israel, it also took aim at attempts to forge new security alignments that could threaten Palestinian aspirations for statehood and the ambitions of the group's main backer Iran." The attack "coincides with US-backed moves to push Saudi Arabia towards normalising ties with Israel in return for a defence deal between Washington and Riyadh, a move that would slam the brakes on the kingdom's recent rapprochement with Tehran." In 2005, Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza as "around 9,000 Jews living in 25 settlements were evicted and the Israeli troops withdrew from the Gaza strip to the Green Line - a 1949 Armistice Line drawing boundaries between Israel and its Arab neighbors." NDTV. Hamas could have developed Gaza in peace but it fought with the Fatah group for total control and has been fighting with Israel ever since. Israel and Egypt blockaded Gaza to stop the movement of militants and the supply of arms. Over the years, the international community has poured billions of dollars in aid, in the fond delusion that they were helping ordinary Palestinians. AP. Clearly, Hamas diverted most of the money to buy and make arms. It launched over 5,000 rockets into Israel, overwhelming its Iron Dome defence. NDTV. How many countries possess 5,000 rockets? Hamas should learn from Pakistan whose army has been encouraging terrorism against India, including the attack of Mumbai in which 175 people died and over 300 were injured. wikipedia. Today Pakistani citizens are staring at famine as the economy has collapsed. Dawn. Israel has cut off water and fuel supplies. Hamas is terrorist for Israel. But even bigger terrorist for Palestinians. Like the Pakistan army.    

Pharma billionaires.

The 360 ONE Wealth Hurun India Rich List 2023 reports, "12 individuals worth INR 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) or more, same as last year's," "259 dollar billionaires, up 37 compared to last year" and "with 133 entrepreneurs, pharmaceutical sector contributed the most individuals." The pharmaceutical sector makes medicines for the sick, including for children. "The Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) has found that a cough syrup and an anti-allergy syrup made by Norris Medicines Ltd is contaminated with toxins that have been linked to several deaths worldwide, according to Reuters." TOI. "The report comes months after Indian-made cough syrups were linked to the deaths of 141 children worldwide." In 2019, at least 16 children were poisoned in Jammu and Kashmir by toxins in medicines. "Twelve died after their kidneys and other organs failed, a police charge sheet showed; four others were left with severe disabilities." Reuters. "Still, despite intense lobbying on behalf of the families of the children in Jammu, no one has yet been found guilty in a court of law for the cough syrup deaths." Remdesivir injections were used to treat Covid 19 patients. In some cases in 2021, "Within an hour of the injection, the patients began to shiver, their temperatures rose, and their blood oxygen levels (SPO2) dropped precipitously," wrote Priyanka Pulla. "Only the Bihar regulator identified the cause of the mysterious illness. Their testing found Cadilla's batch V100167 to contain bacterial toxins." "India has a poor record of investigating adulterated drugs, punishing manufacturers and compensating victims. Under the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, such manufacturers can be punished with imprisonment of at least 10 years, and a fine of at least Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million)." In June 2023, "US inspectors have in recent months uncovered wide-ranging lapses at factories run by some of India's biggest pharmaceutical firms," wrote Chris Kay. "Inspectors detailed unsanitary conditions in manufacturing plants and poorly trained staff; shredded paperwork and under-investigated customer complaints ; and evidence of exporting contaminated drugs to the US." "The Indian manufacturer of eye drops linked to three deaths and serious infections in the US violated several safety norms," the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said after inspecting Global Pharma's plant in Chennai. "In March, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) identified 68 patients across 16 states with a rare strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which can cause serious infections" and "The drug-resistant strain had never been found in the country before." BBC. Not just unpunished, but encouraged. "India's Uttar Pradesh state has permitted the resumption of most production at a factory owned by Marion Biotech, whose cough syrups Uzbekistan linked to the deaths of 65 children last year." Reuters. While murderers are protected, doctors have to bear the brunt of attacks by patients. 75% of doctors in India have faced violence at work. wikipedia. We Indians may be disposable but other countries may react one day. After all, some countries value their people.     

Iran, Turkey or Israel.

"As Israelis were wrapping up the seven-day-long Jewish festival of Sukkot on Saturday (07 October)," "Thousands of missiles fired from Gaza streaked through the sky and began raining down on indiscriminate targets in Israel, sparking terror and leaving hundreds of bodies in the streets of cities and buildings decimated. Simultaneously, hundreds of armed fighters of the terrorist group (Hamas), many on motorcycles, followed bulldozers that breached fences separating Israel from Gaza and charged into cities, taking Israeli soldiers off guard and gunning down civilians." ABC. Israel was completely deceived by Hamas. "While Israel was led to believe it was containing a war-weary Hamas by providing economic incentives to Gazan workers, the group's fighters were being trained and drilled, often in plain sight, a source close to Hamas said." Reuters. "Hamas constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing and trained to storm it," and "even made videos of the manoeuvres." Hamas terrorists butchered women and babies (CNN), clearly attempting to eliminate Jews as a race. The total number of Jews in the world stands at 16 million in 2023, of which over 6 million live in Israel. wikipedia. There are over 2 million Palestinians packed into Gaza and the population growth rate in 2014 was estimated at 2.91%, the 13th highest in the world. wikipedia. Hamas can afford to sacrifice hundreds of Palestinians for every Jew killed. "The US Intelligence community is digging through its stores of data" to see if Iran had any direct role in the Hamas attack. CNN. "Tehran was not involved in the militant Hamas group's weekend attack on Israel, Iran's top authority Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday (yesterday)." Reuters. Of course, he wouldn't want to embarrass is friend Biden, would he? In 2022, "President Joe Biden's administration...restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects, as indirect American-Iranian talks on reviving the 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran enter the final stretch." Reuters. Iran will happily talk forever while it continues its uranium enrichment. "Earlier this year," "Five US citizens detained by Tehran were allowed to leave the country in exchange for the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds that had been frozen in South Korea. At the same time, five Iranians held in the United States were allowed to leave." ET. So what's new? Biden was Vice President to Barack Obama who presented Iran with $400, plus $1.3 billion in interest, in 2016 for the release of 4 Americans. Reuters. What about the other friend of the US and member of NATO -Turkey? Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan accused the US of planning to massacre Palestinians when it moved a carrier strike group closer to Israel. Reuters. Erdogan deliberately provoked an incident in 2010 when he sent a ship full of Palestinian activists, apparently carrying aid to Gaza, which refused Israeli requests to examine its cargo. Biden claimed that the friendship between the US and Israel is "just simply unbreakable". Vox. Clearly, Democrat presidents believe in keeping enemies closer.      

Just 0.07% are octopus.

"India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY22/23 at 7.2%." "The resilience was underpinned by domestic demand, strong public infrastructure investment and a strengthening financial sector. Bank credit growth increased to 15.8% in the first quarter of FY23/24 compared with 13.3% in the first quarter of FY22/23." World Bank. "Retailers are cautiously optimistic this festive season as the overall market sentiment remains tepid due to high inflation, a high base effect, and greater focus on profitability." India Today. "Brands in fashion jewelry and footwear are expecting double-digit growth possibly up to 20% in the third quarter." "Number of millionaires in India is projected to grow by 105% by 2026, as per Credit Suisse report." ET.  "Post pandemic, there has been a surge in spending on luxury in India. From acquiring luxury real estate to luxury cars; from splurging on destination weddings to exotic holidays, gourmet food and dining experiences, the list goes on." "Rise in the stock markets in the past two decades, integration of economy through infrastructure and digital payments systems, and foreign companies creating high-income jobs have led to a booming 'octopus class' in India which is fueling consumption growth." ET. "The 'octopus class', according to (Saurabh) Mukherjea and (Nandita) Rajhansa, comprises nearly two lakh (200,000) families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% if India's wealth." In a small town a smart trader takes bank loans to expand his business, then goes into a car dealership, then into real estate and finally into politics, thus creating a conglomerate and "this conglomerate will steadily push its tentacles into every economically lucrative activity in that area. That's why they call them 'octopus class'." In big cities highly paid executives with share options become dollar millionaires and control big companies. The reason why loans are relatively cheap is because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the interest rate fixed at 6.5% for the fourth time this month (TOI) despite consumer price (CPI) inflation coming in at 6.83% in August from 7.4% in July. ET. The RBI's paralysis is because inflation is due to rising food prices and interest rates will not increase food supply. On the other hand, "Nearly 93% of Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion) budget allocated to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) for this financial year has been used in just the first half of the year." The Wire. These are poor people and their spending is mainly on food. Since 2004, "Most of the increase in salaried work has been in informal salaried employment. The proportion of formal salaried stagnated in this period at around 5% whereas informal salaried increased from 7% to 12%," wrote Abraham, Basole and Ameen. Just 1 million out of a total population of 1,432 million (worldometer) or about 0.07% of the population. Consumption of this 1 million pushes up prices. The rest struggle to buy food. And, it's all going to just about 0.07%. Shout it out loud - we are the fastest growing fifth largest economy in the world. ET.        

Master of disguise.

"The Election Commission will announce the schedule for holding assembly elections in five states at 12 noon today. The commission will announce the dates for assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram." NDTV. "Months ahead of the 2024 general elections, BJP may need some skilled political maneuvering and expertise not to let its Hindutva vote bank agenda be hit by the latest Opposition attempt to revive Mandal politics, which has now taken center-stage with the release of caste data by the Bihar government. The latest data of Bihar pegs the state's backward caste population at 63%." ET. The Mandal Commission was formed on 20 December 1978 by the then Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Encyclopedia. "The Mandal Commission concluded that India's population consisted of approximately 16 percent non-Hindus, 17.5% Brahmans and 'forward castes', 44% 'other backward classes (OBC), and 22.5% scheduled castes and tribes." "PM Narendra Modi attacked Rahul Gandhi's new plank for caste based census and said it was a ploy to divide Hindu society at the instance of foreign powers who were active behind the scenes and were operating through their handlers." TOI. Is Mr Modi accusing Mr Gandhi of being an agent of a foreign power? If so, is he not guilty of criminal defamation as defined under Section 499 IPC (iPleaders)? "There are two distinct strands to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's art of public communication: one, high voltage bombastic rhetoric; total silence," wrote Sagarika Ghosh. "Loud personalised nationalist superhero-cum-victim-cum-action man, on the one hand; stony silence on the other. Bombastic rhetoric on certain issues, deafening silence on other matters; high profile personality projection, but mute escapism and refusal to take responsibility" and "pushing his own 'victimhood' and how he is the 'victim' of his rivals." "In the nearly 10 years of the Modi government, there have been questions about its handling of data. Evidently, there are areas where it has buried or blacked out the data that was inconvenient to its agenda of running a glorious Hindutva regime;" and "It has also faced allegations of fudging the data, most recently in the case of India's GDP for the first quarter this financial year," wrote Sushant Singh. "Does PM Modi's allegations that his political enemies are giving out bounties to malign him and that the 'foreign hand' and its local collaborators are out to get him by hook or by crook somehow bring back memories of an Indira Gandhi smelling an international conspiracy at every step? DH. "Every week you're asked to take a position - and that too as a Hindu," wrote Shruti Kapila. "Modi's second term is not saddled as much by anti-incumbency as it is with an identity crisis. Having successfully reinvented Hindutva in his own personality, it is not clear whether we are looking at a strongman Vishwaguru or the representative of a so-called victimised identity." Clearly, Modi can change his identity at any moment as we can see from his images. Google. Maricha of Ramayan would fall at his feet.              

Who is supporting whom?

"Over 100,000 ethnic Armenian refugees have fled Nagorno-Karabakh.., local authorities said, with it now appearing that virtually the entire Armenian population from the enclave will leave, abandoning their homes after Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, recaptured the region last week with a military offensive." ABC. "About 85% of the population has now fled in less than a week, in what Armenia has condemned as 'ethnic cleansing'." "Azerbaijan's September blitz involving heavy artillery, rocket launchers and drones - largely supplied by Israel and Turkey, according to experts - forced Armenian separatist to lay down their weapons and sit down for talks on the future of the separatist region." Times of Israel. In 2020, "Turkish military exports to its ally Azerbaijan have risen six-fold this year, with sales of drones and other military equipment rising to $77 million last month alone before fighting broke out over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to exports data." Reuters. Turkey would like to wipe out Armenia because it is a reminder of its genocide of Armenians in what is now eastern Turkey. "Armenian genocide, campaign of deportation and mass killing conducted against the Armenian subjects of the Ottoman empire by the Young Turk government during World War 1 (1914-18)." Britannica. "By the end of the war, more than 90 percent of the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were gone, and many traces of their former presence were erased." Turkey's support of Azerbaijan is understandable but Israel's support is inexplicable. Turkey is a strong supporter of Pakistan. "Turkey and Pakistan share a strong bond of friendship encompassing political, cultural, economic and defence relations." IDSA. "Turkey has helped Pakistan improve military capabilities by supplying weapons especially for its navy and air force." That may have prompted India to try and help Armenia. "A shipment of India-manufactured military supplies reportedly reached Armenia after being transported by road through Iran, according to exclusive footage obtained by the Baku-based Caliber.Az news service." Why did Iran help against Muslim Azerbaijan? Mystery. Yesterday, "Backed by a barrage of rockets, Hamas militants stormed from the blockaded Gaza strip into nearby Israeli towns, killing dozens and abducting others in an unprecedented surprise attack during a major Jewish holiday." AP. "In some places they gunned down civilians and soldiers as Israel's military scrambled to muster a response." "An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei...congratulated Palestinian fighters for launching the biggest attack on Israel in years, the semi-official ISNA news site reported." Reuters. Do the leaders in the Middle East countries know what they are doing? From here they seem more like gangs fighting for territory. Perhaps they should all get tattoos.         

Clever RBI.

"Traders on Friday (yesterday) added to bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year, and keep them high for longer next year, after a US government report showed employers added far more jobs than expected last month." Reuters. "The report, expected to show non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in September but in fact showing employers added 336,000 jobs," caused "Futures contracts to now price in a Fed policy rate of 4.69% at the end of next year, up from 4.59% seen before the report." On the same day, "The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee...unanimously decided to keep policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the fourth time in a row and maintain economic growth and inflation projection." DH. "The market for US Treasurys has shed almost a quarter (24.7%) of its value since Treasury yields bottomed out in the summer of 2020." Investopedia. "One of those bear markets occurred in 1860, just before the outbreak of the Civil War, when prices fell 18.7% from peak to trough." "Rising borrowing costs have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a 16-year high of 4.8%." Bond yields in India soared yesterday after the RBI said "it plans to conduct open market sale of bonds through auctions to manage liquidity in the system". Reuters. "The 10-year bond yield closed at 7.3412%." By tightening money supply the RBI hopes to push up borrowing costs without having to increase interest rates. On 10 August "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das asked banks to hold an incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR) of 10% on increase in deposits between May 19 and July 28, with effect from the fortnight starting Aug 12." Reuters. The ICRR was a master-stroke by the RBI, admired Madan Sabnavis. This was because banks were unwilling to bid for variable reverse repo rate (V3R) auctions which earned interest at 6.49% but funds were tied up for 14-28 days. "A way out for the RBI was to impose a ICRR that at one stroke impounded Rs 1 trillion. While this served the central bank's liquidity absorption goal, banks stood to lose, as the mandatory cash reserves of banks held with RBI do not earn interest," wrote Sabnavis. Must have worked a treat because, "Liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 1.46 trillion on Monday (18 Sept)," and "The shortage has kept pressure on overnight rates, with call money and TREPS (Tri-party Repos) rates at 6.75%-6.90%." wrote Gopika Gopakumar. "Indian banks should be lending their surplus funds to their peers" "rather than passively parking in the SDF (standing deposit facility) at relatively less attractive rates," said the RBI yesterday. The foolish US Fed raises its Funds rate to control inflation, easy to understand, while the clever RBI contorts itself into totally incomprehensible knots so as not to raise its interest rate. It has to beware that it does not tie itself in a Gordian Knot (wikipedia). Will need a sword to undo it.   

The elephant's momentum.

"Investment: The Dog That Didn't Bark," wrote Chief Economist of the State Bank of India (SBI) Soumya Kanti Ghosh. TOI. Whenever Indians want to make a point they bring up the poor dog in Sherlock Holmes' Adventure of Silver Blaze (wikipedia) which didn't bark because the horse was the murderer, and since the horse was just defending itself it was entirely innocent. It is time we let the poor dog rest in peace. Who is the dog here? Those who are saying that private investment is weak. Not so, writes Ghosh. "Importantly, capacity utilization in the manufacturing space had touched a decade high of 76.3% as of March 2023." "For the four-year period ended 2022-23, incremental investment by the private sector was at Rs 7 lakh crore (Rs 7 trillion) as against Rs 7.5 lakh crore for the five-year period ended 2018-19." Four years of investments almost equal to five. But, the rupee was around 60 to one dollar in 2014 (Thomas Cook), while one dollar buys 83.20 this morning. xe.com. So, although the amount of private investment looks respectable in nominal terms it is much lower (almost 40%) in value terms. "Most importantly, consolidated private sector investment was at Rs 16.3 lakh crore (Rs 16.3 trillion) during FY20-23 (4 years) as against Rs 16.4 lakh crore in the pre-pandemic period of FY15-19 (5 years)." If private sector investment is roaring ahead, why, "Amid the speedy economic growth of India, the unemployment rate among graduates under 25 years of age touched a huge 42% post-Covid, compared to higher-secondary (21.4%), secondary (18.1%), middle (15%) and others, according to report published by Azim Premji University." Mint. "The report mentioned that since 1990s year-on-year non-farm GDP growth and non-farm employment growth were uncorrelated with each other." In the April-June quarter of 2023 "the private sector as represented by more than 3,000 listed firms, announced higher operating profitability (EBIDTA) reflecting robust performance," wrote Ghosh. If so, why no jobs? "In a recent research note, economists Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladha of Motilal Oswal estimate that for the period April to June, corporate investments fell 6.2% in comparison with April-June 2022. They stood at 12.3% of GDP, the lowest in the first quarter of of any year in the past decade," wrote Vivek Kaul. Economist Dipanwita Mazumdar of Bank of Baroda "analysed the balance sheets of 3,420 companies and looked at the sum of fixed assets and capital work in progress, a representation of corporate investment. Over a five-year period from 2017-18 to 2022-23, the growth of this metric averaged 4.9% per year. Far lower than India's nominal GDP of 9.8% per year." The Indian economy is represented by the elephant, even though Anju Sahu disputes this. Swarajya. And, as in the old Indian fable, it depends on who is looking at it. wikipedia. Private or government.