Sunday, July 30, 2023

It'll be easy.

"The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook database shows that India will overtake both Japan and Germany, currently the third and fourth largest economies respectively, in 2026-27 to become the third largest economy." HT. The economic reforms following the balance of payments crisis in 1991, when India had to pledge 67 tons of gold as security to borrow from the IMF (wikipedia), unleashed animal spirits and a surge in growth. According to the Provisional Estimates of National Income, "The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 percent as compared to 9.1 percent in 2021-22." pib,gov.in. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is estimated to be Rs 1,06,822 ($1302) in 2021-22 and Rs 1,13,395 ($1382) in 2022-23. According to the World Bank, lower middle income countries are those with GNI per capita of $1036-$4045 and upper middle income countries have GNI per capita of $4046-$12,535. What will it take to get from a lower middle income nation with GNI per capita of $1302 to a developed nation with a GNI per capita income of $13,000? Our GDP has to grow much faster than projected. GDP will grow at over 7% in 2023-24, predicted our Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran. ET. The IMF predicted that "India's GDP growth would fall from 7.2% in FY23 to 6.1% in the current financial year, and then rise slightly to 6.3% in FY25." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India expects our growth rate at 6.5% in 2023-24. NDTV. India needs to "generate mass employment that guarantees a base minimum income. There is more than enough data to show that income levels for most Indians are far from adequate to guarantee a decent living." "India's young and expanding population, with more students leaving school every year to start careers," is seen as a demographic dividend, but "At the same time, managers struggle with enormous personnel problems. Finding people willing to uproot themselves for the factory jobs most crucial to long-term economic growth can be difficult. Training can be expensive, and keeping them can be nearly impossible." DH. Government jobs are the most coveted. "According to a report by the Department of Personnel and Training, over 220 million applicants have applied for government jobs since 2014, and over 722,000 have received permanent positions in the central government." ET. Young people keep appearing for tests to secure these coveted jobs. As a result the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates the rate of unemployment for those 20-24 years in age was at 41.9% in September 2022; it was 9.8% for those in the 25-29 years category. The State of Science Index-2023 survey by 3M found that "85 percent respondents said shortage of skilled trade workers was on account of parents discouraging children from pursuing opportunities in the sector." ET. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the focus of the government is on "infrastructure, investment, innovation and inclusiveness - to make India a developed nation by 2047." DNA. Chhoomantar. Easy.  

No comments: