Wednesday, August 04, 2021

What do they say about statistics?

 "From 1936 to 1956, the US fertility rate rose from 1.8 to 3.2," wrote Prof Karl W Smith. This resulted in the 'baby boomer' generation, which is used to describe all those born between 1946 and 1964, Investopedia. "From the 1960s through the mid-1980s, net domestic investment by private businesses averaged 5.4% of gross domestic product each year. One dollar of every $20 spent in the US was directed toward expanding the size and scope of private enterprise," wrote Smith. "After the baby boom, there was a baby bust." Private investment fell because, "Without a growing supply of new workers, new private investment has a harder time generating consistent positive real returns." With lower returns from investment money goes into buying land. "In the formal economic models of this phenomenon -- known as secular stagnation -- land prices can theoretically go to infinity. In the real world, they are prone to bubbles." In China, "Bright, smart girls in my school days were told to postpone marriage and child-rearing," wrote Shuli Ren. "We contributed to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the People's Republic of China." "We held up our part of the sky [the 'half' that Mao famously said women do]." "But lately, being childless in the country has become the new sin to be atoned for. As Beijing starts its single-minded pursuit of its new three-child policy, independent Chinese women are being marginalized and pushed aside -- not just in terms of political polemic but in practical, economic terms." "From 4.82 children per woman in 1980, India's fertility rate has dropped to 2.2 in 2019," News18. "India's birth rate in 1980 was 36.16 per 1,000 people that dropped to 17.64 in 2019." China's fertility rate dropped to 1.69 and the birth rate dropped to 10.5 per 1,000 people in 2019. India's current population is 1.4 billion of which 64.9% are between the ages of 15 and 64, countrymeters. Which means the vast majority is in the working age group, as opposed to the US and China. Falling birth rates, which means fewer dependents, along with a large working population is supposed to result in higher economic growth and is known as the 'demographic dividend', Investopedia. Provided the economy can create meaningful jobs for them. The periodic labour force survey (PLFS) showed that unemployment in India dropped from 6.1% in 2017-18 to 5.8% in 2018-19 and further to 4.8% in 2019-20, and the labour force participation rate (LFPR), which is the number of people working or looking for work, rose from 36.9% to 37.5% and then to 40.1% in 2019-20, wrote Prof Tulsi Jayakumar. Looks excellent, but careful study revealed that "Eight states, including populous one like Uttar Pradesh, have more than 70% of people reporting themselves as self-employed, following current weekly status (CWS) approach. Among urban households, meanwhile, the proportion of casual labour increased." 9.1% of people in rural and 14.7% in urban areas did not earn any income from economic activities. "The weakening of economic activity force many to seek distress employment, resulting in a 43-million rise in total employment numbers in 2019-20 from the year earlier," wrote Prof Himanshu. "An increase in distress employment usually shows up in higher employment of women, children and the elderly, as households push the reserve labour force into the active labour market to maintain their real incomes." "The results are surprising because they correspond to a period when India's GDP growth decelerated sharply; it came down to 4.2% in 2019-20," wrote Udit Misra. The difference is because the National Statistical Office report is based on Usual Status but a true picture comes from the Current Weekly Status (CWS) followed by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). "Female labour force participation rate in India fell to 16.1% during the July-September 2020 quarter," Reuters. "Most employed women in India are in low-skilled work, such as farm and factory labour and domestic help, sectors that have been hit hard by the pandemic." The world knows how dire the situation in India is. Pity, they don't.      

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