Saturday, August 14, 2021

Dollars are also. foreign.

"India's economy needs to grow at a nominal rate of 14% at current exchange rates over the next 10 years to hit the $10 trillion milestone," Economic Times (ET). Nominal GDP growth maybe due to increase in production of goods and services or due to rise in market prices, global economy.com. The real GDP growth rate corrects for inflation by using a deflator calculated according prices in a base year, Investopedia. The nominal GDP growth rate was 19.9% in 2010-11 but after correcting for high inflation the real GDP growth rate was 8.5%. The nominal GDP growth hovered between 10 and 11% from 2014-2019 and then fell to just 7.8% in 2019-20 before the coronavirus hit India. All it needs is to simplify the goods and services tax (GST), reform power sector and land laws, better governance and higher investment in high value industries, ET. "Economic recovery is evident in all sectors," said Saurabh Mukherjee. "If you look at a sector like IT services, even a large company like Cognizant is saying that it is becoming impossible to get the number of programmers and software engineers they need. So we are living through the strongest demand environment in many sectors that I have seen in 20 years. History shows us this is when sector leaders pull away." "The benchmark Sensex crossed the 55,000 mark and hit a record high on sustained buying support by retail investors and mutual funds in intra-day trading on Friday," The Indian Express (TIE). Retail inflation fell to 5.6% in July and the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 55.3. "The sharp improvement in key economic indicators like GST collection, auto sales volume despite supply disruption, and other high frequency indicators like e-way bills in July indicate sustainable rebound in corporate earnings in subsequent quarters." "The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 889 million to a lifetime high of $621.464 billion in the week ended August 6, 2021, RBI data showed on Friday," Business Standard. If the economy, markets and foreign investments are booming why has "Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday suggested that Indian companies could make early stage investment in home-grown startups to help retain Indian talent and ideas within the country, while also getting themselves higher upside when valuations increase," Times of India (TOI). Goyal picked on the Tata Group in particular and his "comments caught public attention and stoked a debate on social media after the Hindu newspaper reported on Saturday the government had asked the CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) to block videos with Goyal's comments," Reuters.  "Goyal also repeatedly criticized Amazon (AMZN.O) and Walmart's (WMT.N) Flipkart for allegedly bypassing foreign investment rules for e-commerce. This week, he also invoked the 'Quit India' movement in Parliament as he welcomed a court order that allowed an anti-trust probe of the two companies to continue." Foreigners will only invest if they make profits in India. If the government does not want foreign money why doesn't it just ban it?  Goyal's comments invited scathing comments on social media, HW. "The Flipkart purchase was Walmart's most expensive. Soon after the deal, Reliance announced its own ambitious e-com plan for linking small independent stores with a telecom network that now has 420 million subscribers. Reliance is also India's largest operator of physical stores," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "But then, consumers and small shopkeepers are just convenient excuses. Behind the smokescreen of shielding their interests, India is slowly creating a protectionist economy that will benefit a select group of firms." Non-resident Indians residing in the 5-eyes countries, US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand are doing much better because of help by governments of these countries than are people in India, wrote Ajay Sharma. Bullying and begging cannot create economic growth. How can you have a $10 trillion economy if you don't want dollars? After all, dollars are foreign. 

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