Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Can't redistribute what we don't have.

"America and even China, to a large extent, have created far more economic wealth than India has done and can turn their attention towards divvying up the pie. India still has to expand its pie to engage in meaningful redistribution," Prof VA Nageswaran. First China went after Chairman of Alibaba Jack Ma, wikipedia, then it cracked down on "ride-hailing app Didi right after it listed its shares in the US", Reuters, then it asked private tuition firms to become non-profit, business standard, and then the online gaming and entertainment industry was labeled 'spiritual opium', leading to a crash in share value, Reuters. Shuli Ren wrote that "China is now averse to big capital, especially if it flows into areas that the government does not consider priorities; also more importantly, big capital was creating power centres that could threaten the government." "China's ruler Xi Jinping has taken on a new title last used by Chairman Mao in a move to further tighten his grip on power, US officials have said. The president and general secretary of the country's Communist Party has now adopted the role of 'helmsman', an honorific position which denotes ultimate authority," DailyMail. Even so, "The reason the Chinese President is pursuing this could be that he wants to ensure the Communist Party Congress next year elects him for a third term (or forever). Xi is playing the re-election tune even in Communist China," Nageswaran. "India faces elections in 16 states before 2024 and national elections in 2024." ""In India, the tendency to play the populist card either through policies or through fiscal largesse lurks just beneath the surface." "In 2010-11, India's growth rate of merchandise exports was 37.5%, and there was tremendous export optimism. Reaching $450 billion was seen to be just around the corner," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Ten years later we are back to focusing on exports as a major driver of growth. It is opportune because the world economy led by two of its largest economies, the US and China, is literally booming." But for this to happen India has to change policies, including encouraging small businesses, reducing taxes, reducing tariffs on imports and a bias towards a weaker rupee. On 4 November 2019, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi formally announced India's withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. "Cut to 2021 and India is all set to start negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by the end of the year, while aiming to  simultaneously conclude a preferential pact with Canada after putting aside some initial inhibitions." "Thus, in a short span of just a few years, India has swung from 'Look East' to 'Act East' to 'Trade West'." Problem is that the UK and EU will want lower taxes on their products as well. And Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was deliberately humiliated when he visited India with his wife and children in 2018, BBC. An ordinary person can visit India by obtaining a visa but a prime minister's visit is carefully choreographed many months in advance by the protocol officials of both countries. So Trudeau should have been clearly told of India's sensibilities and who were not wanted. To allow his retinue to come and then to treat him in a boorish manner is to make an unnecessary opponent. High taxes are necessary to distribute subsidies to win coming elections, wikipedia. Unemployment levels are high and millions of people have suffered drastic falls in earnings, Hindustan Times (HT). "Global investors are cautious on India because of expensive valuations, but intrigued by domestic households buying stocks, Swiss brokerage UBS said," Business Standard. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have made a net investment of Rs 5,001 crore (Rs 50.01 billion) so far in August in Indian equities, according to data from NSDL," India TV. The price/earnings ratio of the Nifty share index is at 27 times but Badri Narayanan wrote that it is justified, The New India Express. If the market falls millions of investors will lose everything. China redistributes wealth, we have only poverty to distribute.      

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