"The Taliban has taken over almost all of Afghanistan and is flexing its muscles for global legitimacy," Economic Times (ET). "Many international experts apprehend that Taliban may fuel terror activities in Jammu and Kashmir by sending its fighters or by training Pakistani mercenaries." But it will not be easy. The Taliban are Pashtuns, which will make them stand out, and are trained in heavy weapons which will be unsuitable in Kashmir. Pakistan and Taliban do not want to be labeled as terrorists. India has put up "border fencing, three tier of security deployment and continuous monitoring using satellites, UAVs, and other sensors". And finally, Pakistan will be terrified of a muscular response from India. "While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory. "However, the security officers in the field say that there is little chance of Taliban infiltrating into Kashmir as there is robust anti-infiltration grid at Line of Control,"indiatoday.in. The Taliban now has stinger missiles and anti-aircraft guns, while "Pakistan could manage to lay its hands on some of the 2,000 armoured vehicles, including Humvees, 40 aircraft including the UH-60 Black Hawks, attack helicopters and ScanEagle small drones". In July, "two drones dropped an IED each packed with high-grade explosives on an Indian Air Force Base in Jammu. One IED broke through the roof of a building while the other dropped a few yards away, injuring two IAF personnel," The Indian Express (TIE). "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) outfits are behind the dropping of arms, IEDs and narcotics in Jammu and Kashmir," said Director General of Police Dilbag Singh, ET. The military-jihadi complex (MJC) in Pakistan, "Comprising the military, militant, radical Islamist and political economic nodes, the MJC pursues domestic and foreign policies to ensure its survival and dominance," wrote Pranay Kotasthane. "There is a possibility of MJC moving its terror outfits to Loya Paktita in Eastern Afghanistan, a hotbed of anti-India activities in the past. This scenario would allow MJC to use terrorism against India while claiming it has no control over these elements." " Also, "as long as terrorism is portrayed as an instrument of a domestic insurgency the world will continue to look away." "The Taliban, though backed by Pakistan, are indubitably a domestic Afghan creation. Yet they always saw themselves as part of a global revival of Islamic glory, as an idea whose time had come again," wrote SA Anklesaria Aiyar. "It will surely promote religious fundamentalism in neighbours, including Pakistan and India." "Few Indians read Islamic literature across the world, but this invariably paints India as one of the greatest oppressors of Muslims, above all in Kashmir." "True, Pakistan will have to pay a domestic price for its patronage of medievalist certitudes and jihad, but it hopes to offset this discomfort to resume its war of a thousand cuts against India," wrote Swapan Dasgupta of the BJP. "With the liberation of Kashmir placed just a notch below the Palestinian struggle in the radical Islamist imagination, it is unlikely that India will be a beneficiary of guarantees of good conduct." India needs to help "Amrullah Saleh, former VP, and the son of the legendary Ahmed Shah Masood in Panjshir Valley", thinks Dasgupta. "From past experience with Taliban, there is always a clear and present danger to Indian interests in the region," wrote Rajeev Agarwal. "If and when interests of Pakistan, Taliban-led Afghanistan, China and, to some extent, Iran converge and unite to forge another Quad, it could pose a threat right at India's doorstep, a security threat unparalleled in independent India." We can imagine all sorts of dangers but it is almost impossible to imagine the ISI, Taliban, Ebrahim Raisi and Xi Jinping playing a round of golf together. We can hope villains fight each other. While we watch from the sidelines.
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