They don't trust each other, we don't trust either.

"The prosperity of Germany, United States and Japan has been attributed to high levels of trust between business and the state," wrote Gurcharan Das. The lack of trust in India resulted in the "failure of the Indian Railways to attract a single private player to run 150 trains", by investing Rs 300 billion. "The reform failed because of a lack of trust. Bidders had repeatedly insisted on an independent regulator to create a level playing field: flexibility in timings, routes and a fair exit. They didn't trust the current regulator, a retired railwayman. The railways didn't budge." "Cumbersome ease of doing business at the grass-root level and high cost of doing business is affecting the animal spirits of the private sector, according to a survey by industry chamber CII," Economic Times (ET). Just recently, "Piyush Goyal, the Industry and Commerce minister, found himself in a Twitter storm after The Hindu reported his statements against the Indian Industry's business practices," CNBCTV18. "The Reserve bank of India (RBI) conducts a quarterly Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilization Survey (OBICUS) for the manufacturing sector," Mint. "It assesses the operating efficiency of a manufacturing unit" and showed that capacity utilization (CU) "had increased to 69.4 in Q4 FY21 (January-March 2021) from 66.6% in the previous quarter". CU is a measure of efficiency of a manufacturing unit and 85% and above is considered to be good, Marketing91. "Addressing members of the Confederation of Indian Industries on August 12, revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj asked why private investment was subdued despite impressive corporate performance (in terms of profits)," wrote Roshan Kishore. Perhaps, he was not aware of the RBI's Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS), which showed that "An unprecedented 28.4% of the respondents believed that their existing production capacity is more than adequate for the second quarter (July-September 2021-22)." Politicians and civil servants want industry to invest in new projects which will create new jobs, which will increase demand and, in turn, lead to more projects. This will create economic growth and help the present politicians to win elections. Industrialists, on the other hand, want to see a rise in demand before they will borrow money to build new capacity. In December 2020, Centre for MonitoringIndian Economy (CMIE) studied "the full set of listed companies that provided financial statements for the quarter ended September 2020", a total of 4,234 companies, which showed that "Net profits increased by 568.5 percent." "They did so by cutting costs a lot more sharply than they suffered the fall in sales because of the lockdown." "A cut in the wage bill could mean a combination of layoffs and wage rate cuts." Wages of permanent staff were reduced while headcount was cut by axing contractual labour. Businessmen are afraid of losing control of their companies through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) 2016, Business Standard. However, as with every law in India the IBC is also becoming toothless. "Initial success in finding new homes for distressed steel plants raised hopes that the savings-starved economy would extricate valuable capital from failed ventures. But now, creditors are balking at 90% haircuts, and bailout funds are disillusioned with everything from long delays in admitting cases by tribunals to a chronic shortage of judges," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "That the government often sees taxpayers as tax dodgers until proven innocent and that the private sector tends to consider consumers more as a source of profits than the reason for its existence are serious hurdles in the way of India's economy achieving sustained high growth," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. Meanwhile, "India 'remains a challenging place' to do business, the US has said, urging it to foster an attractive and reliable investment climate by reducing barriers to investment and minimising bureaucratic hurdles," Indian Express. "Why I'm losing hope in India: Bloomberg," Andy Mukherjee wrote in sorrow. The rot seems permanent.   

How long before a brownfield project becomes black?

"Across the country, public assets like roadside parking slots, municipal grounds and advertising surfaces are free-for-all, often captured by the rich, powerful and unscrupulous," wrote Nitin Pai. "Yet, oblivious to their own wealth, or unable to monetize it, India's governments rely on taxes and devolved funds to fill their coffers." Nitin Pai must be living in a different country. According to the internet site of the Regional Transport Office (RTO) in Delhi, registration and road tax of the cheapest car, costing below Rs 400,000, will come to Rs 20,630, which is over 5% of the showroom price. This includes municipal parking charges and compulsory FasTags which are meant for paying toll. The showroom price will include goods and services tax (GST) which is 18%+1% cess for the smallest cars with an engine smaller than 1200cc, cleartax.in. GST on a SUV is at 28%+22% cess. In Delhi, although municipal parking charges are included in registration fees, municipalities charge by the hour for parking cars, indianexpress.com (IE). Combined taxes of central and state governments on petrol is over 55%, Times of India (TOI). "That is why the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP), announced by the finance minister last week, should be welcomed." Pai should not underestimate our lot. They are the most efficient at sucking blood in the whole world. "The government...unveiled a four-year National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) worth an estimated Rs 6 lakh crore (Rs 6 trillion). It aims to unlock value in brownfield projects by engaging the private sector, transferring to them revenue rights and not ownership in the projects, and using the funds so generated for infrastructure creation across the country," IE. A brownfield project is the leasing of existing assets so that production can start immediately, investopedia. The danger of handing over public assets to private ownership is that they may create monopolies and, in order to maximize profits, the private company will not want to spend on maintenance and will want to increase prices. "Singapore had to nationalize its suburban trains and signalling systems because their main private operator had underinvested in maintenance, leading to breakdowns and stranded passengers," wrote Andy Mukherjee.  "In New South Wales, where electricity prices doubled in five years after poles and wires were privatized, the government had to step in to lower the burden on consumers." Already, India is gradually transforming into monopolies or duopolies. "After a spate of recent acquisitions, Adani Group now runs the largest number of airports in India, from having no presence in the sector a few years ago," wrote Rupa Subramanya. "Indeed, when he became prime minister, Modi flew from Ahmedabad to New Delhi on Adani's private jet. During his victorious election campaign, Adani's fleet of private jets ensured that Modi was able to sleep in his own bed every night after a full day of campaigning." "Both Adani and Ambani hail from the western Indian state of Gujarat," and "What makes the recent success of both Ambani and Adani all the more striking is that it is occurring in an economy that contracted drastically in 2020." "The collapse of the Kremlin-led oligarch model in Russia into gangster capitalism, in the context of a stagnating economy, points to perils of stifling competitiveness and privileging established incumbents." Public entities are suffering because of government negligence."An analysis of vacant Board positions as on March 31, shows that in 24 Maharatnas and Navratnas, there are a total number of 149 board-level vacancies comprising 11 positions of executive directors (EDs), 135 positions of of independent directors (IDs), and three positions of nominee directors," wrote M Damodaran. With Vodafone Idea close to collapse, India's vast telecom market will have just two players - Airtel and Mukesh Ambani's Jio, Mukherjee wrote. "As India de-emphasizes the platform model" in e-commerce, "The winner maybe pursuing a different business model for aggregating supplies. Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, controls both the largest chain of physical stores and the largest telco," Mukherjee. "Ultimately, the NMP will deliver public value to the extent that the government shows itself to be a law-abiding player," Pai. That is a trillion dollar (not rupees) question.            

Mallya can party. Soon he will be able to invite Nirav Modi.

"Vijay Mallya has found the confidence to progress from party mood to party mode in London. The first he's always had, he's now switched to the second with a new found confidence that no government, no court in London or Delhi, can order him back to India," cnbctv18.com. Mallya fled to the UK in 2016 when he was accused of owing Rs 9,000 crores (Rs 90 billion) to 17 banks as a result of the failure of Kingfisher Airlines, Business Standard. "Liquor baron Vijay Mallya, once hailed as the king of good times, made a quiet exit to London via Delhi on March 2," indiatoday.in. "Accompanied by a woman, Mallya travelled with as many as 11 bags, which official sources said, were equivalent to the luggage of seven passengers on an average. "He, however, faced no hassle in getting clearance as Jet Airways had employed executives to help Mallya." "Fugitive billionaire and owner of the now-defunct Kingfisher Airline Vijay Mallya left India with as many as 300 bags -- the Enforcement Directorate (ED) revealed (in December 2018)," timesnownews.com. That would have meant he had a whole plane to himself. In 2020, Jet Airways collapsed. "The collapse of Jet Airways was a reflection of the challenging environment in the country, including high operating costs and a regulatory regime that restricts the ability of airlines to operate as normal commercial businesses, according to the IATA." Economic Times (ET). For Mallya, "The Indian government won the extradition case, but it did not win extradition." Mallya's lawyers applied for asylum. "It came after tapes were played in the court in defence of Mallya to make the claim that he had reason to fear prosecution by top people in government and also media were he to be sent back to India." Foreign courts do not have much respect for fairness or justice in India. "India's status as a free country has changed to 'partly free', according to an annual report on global political rights and liberties," BBC. No wonder Nirav Modi has also applied for asylum in the UK. "The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is seeking to have jeweller Nirav Modi, allegedly involved in a Rs 13,000-crore (Rs 130 billion) at Punjab National Bank (PNB), arrested and extradited to India. Modi has sought political asylum in the UK, the Financial Times reported," ET. "An official said the Indian side tried to allay the UK's apprehension on human rights and conditions of jails, saying India is a democracy and fully adhered to international laws." Why blame foreign courts when, "The Madras high court...asked the Centre to consider enacting a law giving statutory status to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to ensure its autonomy without the government's administrative control," Hindustan Times (HT). "The Supreme Court described the CBI as 'caged parrot' and 'its master's voice' in May 2013 while citing evidence of interference in the federal agency's inquiry into alleged irregularities in the allocation of coalfield licenses." The rot is throughout. "The Supreme Court...deprecated the malady which has taken root in the police administration across the country, resulting in certain officers currying favours with governing dispensations by proactively registering flimsy or frivolous cases against political opponents, only to get targeted by other police officers of similar bent after the government changes," Times of India (TOI). "Reprimanding Tihar jail authorities in the severest possible terms for allegedly conniving with Unitech promoters Sanjay and Ajay Chandra to allow them to operate from inside the prison to scuttle the ongoing probe against them and 'dissipate' their properties before the ED could seize them, the Supreme Court said the 'maximum security prison' in the capital has become a safe haven for criminals and the jail superintendent is 'shameless'," TOI. Not that the ED itself is above suspicion of being a government agency, The Print. The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) allows authorities to jail a person indefinitely without having to prove guilt of any crime, ET. Such people are then subjected to inhuman treatment in prison by denying them slippers, drinking straws or spectacles, BBC. The British used "Rule by Law", instead of "Rule of Law" to subjugate Indians, said Chief Justice of Supreme Court NV Ramana, The Indian Express. Now the British are giving asylum to protect against Indians. That's how bad it is.     

Tuition is not producing inequality, nutrition is.

"Recently, the Chinese government announced a bold, sweeping and almost draconian crackdown on its booming educational tuition sector," wrote Chetan Bhagat. "China is no yardstick for policymaking for India." "And yet, we in India need to acknowledge that the overemphasis on tuitions is an issue here as well." Bhagat has qualified from IIT Delhi and IIM Ahmedabad, two of the most premier institutes for higher education in India, so he must be super intelligent. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people have an average Intelligence Quotient (IQ) between 85 and 115, healthline.com. Only 2% have an IQ above 130. The average IQ in India is 82, worldpopulationreveiw.com. That is not surprising as, "Malnutrition in children has risen across India in recent years, sharply reversing hard won gains, according to the latest government data," BBC. "India's latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS), which shows that children in several states are more undernourished now than they were five years ago, is based on data collected in 2019-20." "The first 1,000 days of life are crucial for brain development -- and food plays an important role," health.harvard.edu. "The ways that the brain develops during pregnancy and during the first two years of life are like scaffolding: they literally define how the brain will work for the rest of a person's life." "Those connections and changes affect sensory systems, learning, memory, attention, processing speed, the ability to control impulses and mood, and even the ability to multitask or plan. These connections and changes cannot be undone, either. How the brain begins is how it stays." A diet rich in proteins, essential fatty acids, vitamins and minerals is essential for brain development. Malnutrition in women during pregnancy has been shown to predict an excess of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease in adult life in children of those mothers (Barker's hypothesis), wikipedia. A study by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty commission found that "Middle-class children benefit from a 'glass floor' protecting them from slipping down the social scale in Britain," BBC. "Parental education level and attendance at a private or grammar school all had a significant impact over and above the influence of academic attainment, it said." Interestingly, "The report suggests there is a clear correlation between the social background of a child's grandfather and eventual labour market success." "Fifty years of research has revealed" that "By some measures, 5-year-old children of lower socioeconomic status score more than two years behind on standardized language development tests by the time they enter school," news.stanford. edu. "Several studies show that parents who talk more with their children in an engaging and supportive way have kids who are more likely to develop their full intellectual potential than kids who hear very little child-directed speech." "Infosys CEO Salil Parekh saw his annual pay package jump to Rs 49.68 crore (Rs 496.8 million) in 2020-21," while it was Rs 342.7 million in 2019-20, business.standard.com. "Indians in the US, with an average household earning of USD 123,700 and 79 percent of college graduates, have surpassed the overall American population in terms of wealth and college education, according to a media report which cited the latest census data," Economic Times (ET). The Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) report "gives a quintile-wise (bottom to top 20%) distribution on income statistics. It shows that even the top 20% of households earn less than Rs 1 lakh (Rs 100,000) per annum per capita. The bottom 20% of households earn just Rs 25,825 per year per capita," Hindustan Times (HT). With such difference in wealth is it any surprise that parents will endure any hardship to give a better start in life to their children? Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh " has directed the Education Department to explore all possibilities to offer languages such as 'French, Chinese, Arabic' to the students," so that they can emigrate abroad," indianexpress.com. So desperate are young men in Punjab to escape from India that they have spent a fortune on their wives to get educated abroad, so that they could go abroad on spouse visa, HT. Parents must give their best to children. Indian parents do what they can.     

Peacefully different.

In India, "Hindus constitute some 80% of the population, and Muslims, at over 14% are the biggest minority. Expectedly, in a competitive parliamentary democracy, where every vote counts in a first-past- the-post system, using religion for electoral gain is a temptation which no party has been able to resist," wrote Pawan K Verma. "In the early decades after 1947, there were clear attempts to appease the Muslim minority." "The amendment of Hindi personal law - even if well intentioned - in 1954-56 was another act of appeasement, since the personal law of other religions was not touched, even when Article 44 of the Directive Principles of the Constitution spoke of a Uniform Civil code applicable to all religions." In 2017, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee "appointed her close aide and Bengal Urban Development Minister Firhad Hakim as the chairman of the newly formed Tarakeshwar Development Board (TDP) in Hooghly district," news18.com. Tarakeshwar is a 288-year-old Shiva temple revered by Hindus. "Another issue that still deeply rankles is government control over Hindu temples, while places of worship of other religions remain untouched," wrote Verma. In 2017, when asked to link their scholarships to Aadhaar card number, the names of 1,97,360 children disappeared from Madrasas in Uttarakhand and the total amount spent on scholarships dropped from Rs 145 million to Rs 20 million per year, eurasiantimes.com. A survey by Pew Research Center found that, "Across the country, most people (84%) say that to be 'truly Indian', it is very important to respect all religions." "But Indians' commitment to tolerance is accompanied by a strong preference for keeping religious communities segregated." 67% of Hindus think Hindu women, and 65% think Hindu men should not marry into other religious communities, while 80% of Muslims think Muslim women, and 76% think Muslim men, should be stopped from marrying anyone from another religious community. "Some of the most controversial and divisive political positions around religion, such as the bogey of Love-Jihad sustain themselves not on facts but the widespread disapproval of such ideas in principle. These findings, if true, suggest that radical secularism of 'woke' politics is unlikely to work politically in India and mainstream politics will continue to pander to conservative values around both caste and religion," wrote Roshan Kishore. "If Hindus were taken for granted in the first phase, Muslims are directly in the line of fire in the second phase. Both in the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections, BJP won with an absolute majority of seats, but there was not a single Muslim among its winning candidates, certainly a first for any triumphant political party in the history of Indian democracy." "An investigation by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) found that Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which caught the attention of the agency after the Burdwan bomb blast in 2014, had developed a different mechanism for recruiting new members in India. According to the NIA, JMB cadres used to marry Indian women to recruit their family members into the terror group, reported news agency IANS," timesnownews.com. This is a different version of Love-Jihad where law abiding people are turned into terrorists. "The good news is that while both Muslim appeasement and Hindu consolidation have succeeded in garnering electoral dividends, there are inherent limitations to the excesses of both." "The people of India know when and how to correct excess." True, but only because other political parties are adopting, what is labeled, 'soft Hindutva'. "I am a daughter of a Hindu family", asserted Mamata Banerjee and went on to recite 'Chindi Path', an ode to Goddess Durga, timesofindia. com. The same Banerjee who had appointed a Muslim in charge of a Shiva temple. Perhaps, liberalism is itself a religion. And is providing a balance between others.  

Not his brother-in-law, it's his grandmother's policies.

Here we go again. "State-run banks will conduct the second round of the so-called loan melas to boost credit flows to retail borrowers and small businesses during the festive season, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said," Mint. "Sitharaman first nudged lenders to reach out to customers and signal their willingness to lend during the festive season in September 2019." This was well before the first wave of the coronavirus. Loan melas were conceived by B Janardhan Poojary of the Congress Party. "Retired bankers, still bitter about Poojary, recall how as a junior finance minister, he and his men, forced them to squander money in loan melas of the early 80s to anyone who flashed the ration card," Economic Times (ET). "Applicants promptly made xerox copies of their ration cards and attached them with their applications, spending on an average Rs 10," indiatoday.in. Today, Xerox company no longer exists, britannica.com, and it costs Rs 2 to photocopy a document. Rs 10 would have had some value in 1984, so it is not surprising that mobs "thronged many of the city's (Bangalore) 464 banks, threatening and abusing bank officials, damaging parked vehicles and finally forcing the officials to pull down their shutters". "The losses incurred as a result of the melas go into still uncounted thousands of crores," wrote MB Chande in his book 'Betrayal of Democracy', theprint.in. "Is Narendra Modi's new Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana -- providing two bank accounts each to 75 million poor families, an overdraft of Rs 5,000, accident insurance cover of Rs 1 lakh and a life cover of Rs 30,000 -- a breakthrough in financial inclusion? Or is it a Rs 75,000-crore (Rs 750 billion) loan mela, as suggested by columnist Debashish Basu?" asked SA Anklesaria Aiyar. "PM Modi said when his government came to power in 2014 it noticed that public-sector banks had been plundered," ET. "Much before Internet Banking, Congress Party invented phone banking and this caused the NPA mess. A phone call would get loans for their cronies and the nation suffered," Modi said. Surely, loan melas are no different? In the absence of credit demand from industry, banks are already concentrating on retail loans to grow their lending. In April, "Latest data from the Reserve Bank of India shows that outstanding retail loans stood at Rs 27.74 lakh crore (Rs 27.74 trillion) as in February, just a few notches below industrial credit outstanding at Rs 27.86 lakh crore," newindiaexpress.com. Instead of forcing banks to dish out loans to increase consumer spending the government should reduce taxes which will put real money in the hands of consumers. Indians use a lot of oil for cooking. "India levies 32.5% duty on palm oil imports, while crude soya bean and soya oil are taxed at 35%," scroll.in. "In the last couple of weeks, global crude oil prices have fallen steadily reaching a level close to $65 a barrel from the high of $77 it had reached early last month. But this has yet to have any impact on petrol and diesel prices in India," ET. To raise money for spending, "The government on Monday unveiled a four-year National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) worth an estimated Rs 6 lakh crore (Rs 6 trillion). It aims to unlock value in brownfield projects by engaging the private sector, transferring to them revenue rights and not ownership in the projects, and using the funds so generated for infrastruture creation across the country," indianexpress.com. "However, to maximize their profit over a limited time frame, investors would want to raise prices, limit competition or cut back on upkeep. Singapore had to nationalize its suburban trains and signalling systems because their main private operator had underinvested in maintenance, leading to breakdowns and stranded passengers," wrote Andy Mukherjee. When Rahul Gandhi criticised the plan Sitharaman asked him if the New Delhi Railway Station belonged to his brother-in-law. The answer is no. But then, it doesn't belong to you or your boss either. Such is the arrogance of our politicians they think the nation belongs to them. Congress/BJP, mirror images.         

A bunch of thugs are unlikely to form a friendly Quad.

"The Taliban has taken over almost all of Afghanistan and is flexing its muscles for global legitimacy," Economic Times (ET). "Many international experts apprehend that Taliban may fuel terror activities in Jammu and Kashmir by sending its fighters or by training Pakistani mercenaries." But it will not be easy. The Taliban are Pashtuns, which will make them stand out, and are trained in heavy weapons which will be unsuitable in Kashmir. Pakistan and Taliban do not want to be labeled as terrorists. India has put up "border fencing, three tier of security deployment and continuous monitoring using satellites, UAVs, and other sensors". And finally, Pakistan will be terrified of a muscular response from India. "While there are fears that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan may impact the security situation in the Kashmir Valley, there are also apprehensions that this could escalate terror-related violence in the Union Territory. "However, the security officers in the field say that there is little chance of Taliban infiltrating into Kashmir as there is robust anti-infiltration grid at Line of Control,"indiatoday.in. The Taliban now has stinger missiles and anti-aircraft guns, while "Pakistan could manage to lay its hands on some of the 2,000 armoured vehicles, including Humvees, 40 aircraft including the UH-60 Black Hawks, attack helicopters and ScanEagle small drones". In July, "two drones dropped an IED each packed with high-grade explosives on an Indian Air Force Base in Jammu. One IED broke through the roof of a building while the other dropped a few yards away, injuring two IAF personnel," The Indian Express (TIE). "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) outfits are behind the dropping of arms, IEDs and narcotics in Jammu and Kashmir," said Director General of Police Dilbag Singh, ET. The military-jihadi complex (MJC) in Pakistan, "Comprising the military, militant, radical Islamist and political economic nodes, the MJC pursues domestic and foreign policies to ensure its survival and dominance," wrote Pranay Kotasthane. "There is a possibility of MJC moving its terror outfits to Loya Paktita in Eastern Afghanistan, a hotbed of anti-India activities in the past. This scenario would allow MJC to use terrorism against India while claiming it has no control over these elements." " Also, "as long as terrorism is portrayed as an instrument of a domestic insurgency the world will continue to look away." "The Taliban, though backed by Pakistan, are indubitably a domestic Afghan creation. Yet they always saw themselves as part of a global revival of Islamic glory, as an idea whose time had  come again," wrote SA Anklesaria Aiyar. "It will surely promote religious fundamentalism in neighbours, including Pakistan and India." "Few Indians read Islamic literature across the world, but this invariably paints India as one of the greatest oppressors of Muslims, above all in Kashmir." "True, Pakistan will have to pay a domestic price for its patronage of medievalist certitudes and jihad, but it hopes to offset this discomfort to resume its war of a thousand cuts against India," wrote Swapan Dasgupta of the BJP. "With the liberation of Kashmir placed just a notch below the Palestinian struggle in the radical Islamist imagination, it is unlikely that India will be a beneficiary of guarantees of good conduct." India needs to help "Amrullah Saleh, former VP, and the son of the legendary Ahmed Shah Masood in Panjshir Valley", thinks Dasgupta. "From past experience with Taliban, there is always a clear and present danger to Indian interests in the region," wrote Rajeev Agarwal. "If and when interests of Pakistan, Taliban-led Afghanistan, China and, to some extent, Iran converge and unite to forge another Quad, it could pose a threat right at India's doorstep, a security threat unparalleled in independent India." We can imagine all sorts of dangers but it is almost impossible to imagine the ISI, Taliban, Ebrahim Raisi and Xi Jinping playing a round of golf together. We can hope villains fight each other. While we watch from the sidelines.          

Can't redistribute what we don't have.

"America and even China, to a large extent, have created far more economic wealth than India has done and can turn their attention towards divvying up the pie. India still has to expand its pie to engage in meaningful redistribution," Prof VA Nageswaran. First China went after Chairman of Alibaba Jack Ma, wikipedia, then it cracked down on "ride-hailing app Didi right after it listed its shares in the US", Reuters, then it asked private tuition firms to become non-profit, business standard, and then the online gaming and entertainment industry was labeled 'spiritual opium', leading to a crash in share value, Reuters. Shuli Ren wrote that "China is now averse to big capital, especially if it flows into areas that the government does not consider priorities; also more importantly, big capital was creating power centres that could threaten the government." "China's ruler Xi Jinping has taken on a new title last used by Chairman Mao in a move to further tighten his grip on power, US officials have said. The president and general secretary of the country's Communist Party has now adopted the role of 'helmsman', an honorific position which denotes ultimate authority," DailyMail. Even so, "The reason the Chinese President is pursuing this could be that he wants to ensure the Communist Party Congress next year elects him for a third term (or forever). Xi is playing the re-election tune even in Communist China," Nageswaran. "India faces elections in 16 states before 2024 and national elections in 2024." ""In India, the tendency to play the populist card either through policies or through fiscal largesse lurks just beneath the surface." "In 2010-11, India's growth rate of merchandise exports was 37.5%, and there was tremendous export optimism. Reaching $450 billion was seen to be just around the corner," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Ten years later we are back to focusing on exports as a major driver of growth. It is opportune because the world economy led by two of its largest economies, the US and China, is literally booming." But for this to happen India has to change policies, including encouraging small businesses, reducing taxes, reducing tariffs on imports and a bias towards a weaker rupee. On 4 November 2019, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi formally announced India's withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. "Cut to 2021 and India is all set to start negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by the end of the year, while aiming to  simultaneously conclude a preferential pact with Canada after putting aside some initial inhibitions." "Thus, in a short span of just a few years, India has swung from 'Look East' to 'Act East' to 'Trade West'." Problem is that the UK and EU will want lower taxes on their products as well. And Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was deliberately humiliated when he visited India with his wife and children in 2018, BBC. An ordinary person can visit India by obtaining a visa but a prime minister's visit is carefully choreographed many months in advance by the protocol officials of both countries. So Trudeau should have been clearly told of India's sensibilities and who were not wanted. To allow his retinue to come and then to treat him in a boorish manner is to make an unnecessary opponent. High taxes are necessary to distribute subsidies to win coming elections, wikipedia. Unemployment levels are high and millions of people have suffered drastic falls in earnings, Hindustan Times (HT). "Global investors are cautious on India because of expensive valuations, but intrigued by domestic households buying stocks, Swiss brokerage UBS said," Business Standard. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have made a net investment of Rs 5,001 crore (Rs 50.01 billion) so far in August in Indian equities, according to data from NSDL," India TV. The price/earnings ratio of the Nifty share index is at 27 times but Badri Narayanan wrote that it is justified, The New India Express. If the market falls millions of investors will lose everything. China redistributes wealth, we have only poverty to distribute.      

A long history of one stupid decision after another.

"The speed and scope of the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan has prompted introspection in the West over what went wrong, and how, after billions of dollars spent on a 20-year war effort, it could all end so ignominiously. China though is looking forward. It is ready to step into the void left by a hasty US retreat to seize a golden opportunity," Economic Times (ET). "China appears to be eyeing to clinch lucrative projects to exploit mineral-rich Afghanistan, especially the trillions of dollars of rare-earth metals, as it calibrated its policy to recognise the Taliban government," Business Standard. "If China were able to extend the Belt-and-Road from Pakistan through to Afghanistan -- for example, with a Peshawar to Kabul motorway -- it would open up a shorter land route to gain markets in the Middle East." "It was in the waning days of November 2001 that Taliban leaders began to reach out to Hamid Karzai, who would soon become the interim president of Afghanistan: They wanted to make a deal," nytimes.com. "Mr Karzai envisioned a Taliban surrender that would keep the militants from playing any significant role in the country's future. But Washington, confident that the Taliban would be wiped out forever, was in no mood for a deal." The US wanted Mullah Omar captured or dead. That was not the only stupidity of the US. The real stupidity was in not imposing total sanctions on Pakistan. In fact, it did the opposite. "The 9/11 attacks renewed the military relationship between the US and Pakistan. Despite knowing of its duplicity - working with and for the US as well as sheltering and arming the Taliban - The US and its NATO allies have not sanctioned Pakistan," Macdonald-Laurier Institute. "Pakistan cannot tolerate an Afghanistan free of militancy with even an imperfect but stable central leadership." The US is responsible for starting the bloodshed in Afghanistan, wrote Nazes Afroz. President Jimmy Carter "approved clandestine CIA operations in Afghanistan on July 3, 1979, to aid the Mujahideen forces opposed to the communist government in Kabul". "Well, we've just held a very useful and, I might say, brief but also, I'll add, a very moving discussion with Chairman Younis Khalis of the Islamic Union of Mujahidin of Afghanistan and other members of his distinguished delegation," wrote President Ronald Reagan on November 12, 1987. "You are a nation of heroes. God bless you." The CIA also "facilitated the influx of uneducated, or little- educated youths from Muslim countries like Chechnya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Uzbekistan and North African states to fight a 'holy war' to 'save Islam' in Afghanistan against 'godless communists'," wrote Afroz. The Soviet Union did collapse in 1991, history.com, but the US managed to wring defeat out of that victory as well. President Boris Yeltsin was a drunkard and weak. Instead of helping Russia economically and making it a friend of the US, President Bill Clinton "began an eastward expansion of NATO and bombed the former Yugoslavia. American economic experts flew to Moscow to provide advice on democracy and economics, pressing for 'shock therapy' in the Russian economy that delivered painful jolts but little gain," Politico. The economy collapsed in 1998, with high inflation, devaluation of the ruble and default on its debt, rabobank. Instead of imposing sanctions on Pakistan the US has imposed sanctions on Russia. "Moscow pledged retaliatory measures after a new set of sanctions imposed on a Russian ship and two companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline," Reuters. President Joe Biden is worried that China might win economically and militarily against the US, Brookings. If the US keeps converting victory into defeat, China will surely win. It will be disaster for India.       

When people are ready to believe anything.

"The Independence Day address from the ramparts of the Red Fort has acquired a special significance since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. I call it the State of the Nation speech," wrote former Congress Minister P Chidambaram. "In the case of Mr Modi, however, his speeches on August 15 are unremarkable because they are not very different from his speeches at election rallies -- minus his trademark jibes at the Opposition (e.g. Didi-oh-Didi)." About 440.1 million people have received one dose of vaccine, and about 126.4 million have received both doses. "The goal of fully vaccinating the entire adult population by end-December 2021 (950 million-1 billion) has been abandoned." Only about 27% of "households reported receiving full benefits under the 5 kg scheme (Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana)". In 2018, 28.7% of rural households lacked access to toilets and 32% parctised open defecation. The promise to invest Rs 100 trillion  in infrastructure was made on 15 August 2019, on 15 August 2020 as well as this year. "The devastation cause by the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic has led to millions of deaths and resulted in wide-spread anguish and suffering," wrote Rahul Verma & Ankita Barthwal. Yet, a YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey of 10,285 respondents across 203 cities online showed that "48% said the prime minister's efforts can't be faulted at all" and "Support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is in government at the Centre and in several states, also remains largely intact." In a 'Mood of the Nation' survey by India Today of 14,559 people "in the midst of July across 115 parliamentary constituencies in 19 states", "only 24% of respondents chose Modi as 'best suited to be India's next prime minister', a drop from 66% last August and 38% this January," Mint editorial. "Asked to rate the Modi government's performance, 54% of those surveyed went for 'outstanding' or 'good'." "One reason why we are mystified by the support Modi enjoys is below-the-radar messaging," wrote Shivam Vij. "First, there is the closed universe of WhatsApp groups." Second, "some of the top political advertisers on Facebook in India are pro-BJP pages such as 'Bharat ke Mann Ki Baat', 'My First Vote for Modi, 'Nation with NaMo' etc" and, third, the BJP has an army of workers campaigning door-to-door. Before the last general election in 2019, there was "the release of the trailer of 'PM Narendra Modi' an eponymous movie made on the PM and stealth introduction of a television channel 'Namo TV'," and there was also "the television series 'Modi: A common Man's Journey', flash mobs, embedded publicity in television serials, tea cups in railways and bindi packets bearing Modi's mugshot", wrote Smruti Koppikar. The Scroll.in pointed out deliberate lies spread by the BJP on social media in, "Amit Malviya's fake news fountain: 16 pieces of misinformation spread by the BJP IT cell chief." In a most odious example of shameless propaganda, Modi's picture is on every coronavirus vaccine certificate and has been touted as a way to increase awareness, The Wire. While transiting through Frankfurt Airport, an official refused to accept Deepti Tamhane's vaccine certificate, vice.com. "She asked angrily how I could submit this vaccine certificate when the photo on the document was not mine," said Deepti. On being told that this was PM Modi's photo, "She told me that she deals with passengers day in and day out, but this was the first time she had seen any prime minister's photo on a personal document. She thought we were committing a fraud." India's reputation is mud on our tax money. "In hindsight, it was only fitting that a story about surveillance and spyware in India should have begun with more than a touch of cloak and dagger," The Wire wrote about its investigation into how the government was spying on people using the Pegasus spyware bought from the NSO group in Israel. "When politicians in power start losing ground and start getting away from ground realities, they begin falling for the policeman's 'intelligence' inputs," wrote Harish Khare. "The Modi crowd is now irreversibly sucked in the quagmire of official illegalities. The Pegasus syndrome is here to stay." Is Modi here to stay? if so, for how long?     

Rotten education and healthcare? At least leave our armed forces alone.

"In August 2012, when I took charge as secretary, department of economic affairs, the Indian economy was under stress," wrote former Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram. So, he was not responsible for the mess. Apart from "galloping crude oil prices, huge fiscal deficit, 2G/coal and other alleged scams" there was the "retrospective tax on deals involving the transfer of Indian assets through an offshore transaction by a foreign entity". So, who was responsible for this foul act? "I suspect the move of RS Gujral, who was then revenue secretary and spearheaded this amendment, to the department of expenditure, was a show of displeasure." So, in a fit of anger a bureaucrat harmed the nation. In July, the government "confirmed that a French court has ordered the freezing of certain Indian assets in Paris on a petition by Britain's Cairn Energy, which is seeking to recover $1.72 billion from New Delhi after winning an arbitration against retro tax," Economic Times (ET). This was similar to a Canadian gold mining company Crystallex International Corp taking over assets of Venezuela's state oil company in the US in retaliation for seizing of its assets inside Venezuela, Reuters. Since the harmful act was passed during the United Progressive Alliance government, which was in power from 2004-2014, the new BJP government in 2014 could have revoked it straight away. It didn't, "because several senior bureaucrats from the PM's Office opposed the finance ministry's proposal vehemently". The act has been revoked after 17 companies filed claims in foreign courts against India causing enormous damage to our reputation, BBC. We don't know how much of our tax money has been wasted on lawyers because of the obstinacy of bureaucrats. Now they are after our armed forces by suggesting promotion based on merit which will be decided by bureaucrats in the Ministry of Defence. This would mean "(a) the selectee would consider himself beholden to the politico-bureaucratic establishment, undermining his own credibility within the service; and (b) high-level military decisions may be skewed to please politicians," wrote former Chief of Indian Navy Arun Prakash. Prof JP Singh is from the Dedhgharat village, Tehsil Kandaghat in Himachal Pradesh, India and now lives in the US. Since he is now a foreign citizen he has an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card which allows him to travel to India without visa, mea.gov.in. "My OCI application was returned once because they could not find a record of it on their computers. It magically reappeared when I chose to pay by credit card rather than money order," he wrote. Both options are mentioned on the website. However, when it comes to the reform of the civil service, retired civil servants KM Chandrashekhar & K Jayakumar are vehemently opposed to a tribunal chaired by former CEO of Infosys SD Shibulal (wikipedia). They "strongly believe that public administration and corporate management are like chalk and cheese". Managers in the private sector just concentrate on making money, they wrote, but "Civil servants are essentially political administrators, and by training, exposure and experience, every civil servant instinctively understands the grassroots reality, the procedural ecosystem and political sensitivities of every decision." Therein lies the problem. Civil servants serve politicians and they are the ones who create "the procedural ecosystem" which is the bane of our lives. "The performance of state-run institutions throughout the country is, by and large, blighted by the overwhelming instinct to build patronage networks," wrote Prof Amartya Lahiri. Take healthcare. Education is poor. "As late as 2020, there were five hospital beds per 10,000 Indians, placing us at a rollicking 155 out of 167 countries for whom the measure was available." "It is time for the Indian voter to demand the Indian state and its babus retreat from their economic lives." Politicians are bought and sold, which is described as "aya ram, gaya ram". Civil servants are permanent until they retire. They devise all that is wrong. If they destroy our armed forces there will be no India. No civil service.

Make new investments and do what with it?

"Despite the massive windfall gains from fuel taxes and GST collections, the Centre continues to borrow heavily from the market, with the total drawdown crossing 90 percent of the notified amount so far or 46 percent of the total borrowings for FY22 (1 April 2021-31 March 2022), even though the second quarter is only halfway, as per a report," Economic Times (ET). "Despite the second COVID-19 wave, overall Q1 tax collections rose 39 percent to Rs 5.6 lakh crore (Rs 5.6 trillion)" as "the Centre collected a whopping Rs 94,181 (Rs 941.81 billion) crore from excise duty on petrol and diesel, which was 88 percent more than Q1 of FY21". Average yields across government bonds of different maturities was 6.32%, pushed down by the RBI's announcement of quantitative easing of Rs 250 billion next week. "The government's move to pass on increases in global crude oil price to consumers, but prevent corrections through taxes, has raised concerns on inflation among the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) members." Times of India (TOI). But they do nothing except talk. Though it raised its inflation expectation to 5.7% from 5.1% in 2021-22, the RBI said that this is within its projection and maintained its accommodative stance which means a bias towards reducing rates, TOI. "A surge in commodity prices is aiding the exchequer by boosting the government's revenue receipts from goods and services tax (GST), said experts. "Industry representatives said rising commodity prices, especially of metals over the past one year which raised the input costs in many industries, contributing to buoyant GST collections, as rising costs get passed on to the final product," Mint. "Large fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies said they have raised prices in the September quarter as higher input costs continue to remain a cause for concern," Mint. "Firms are battling multi-year high inflation." "While the Prime Minister and finance minister politely urged industrialists to whet their appetite for risk and make substantial investments, our commerce minister, according to several media reports, made a stern speech advocating socially responsible and 'nationalistic' behaviour at a recent event organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry," wrote Diva Jain. First raise excise duty on raw materials, which forces companies to raise retail prices, and then rake in humongous GST collections on the retail price. This is 'reverse voodoo economics', with very high taxes, high government borrowing, high inflation, loose monetary policy and diktats on private businesses. Apparently, it is to be lauded. "So, it is not necessarily the case that weak demand conditions would hold back capital expenditure. An investment boom can create a virtuous cycle of supply and demand," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. Companies look to how much spare capacity they have before investing. Capacity utilization (CU) fell to 68.6% during the September to December quarter 2019 and growth rate of GDP fell to 4.1%. CU increased to 69.4% in January-March 2021, since when we had a ferocious second wave of coronavirus infections. Even as ministers accuse companies of being anti-national in not wasting capital on unnecessary expansion the government is trying to restrict Amazon, Walmart and India's Tata Group by planning a "state-sponsored open network for digital commerce", wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The winner may be someone pursuing a different business model for aggregating supplies. Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, controls both the largest chain of physical stores and the biggest telco." Farmers in Punjab have been barricading another rich tycoon Gautam Adani's Logistics Park in Ludhiana, The Wire. "Earlier this month, the Adani group filed a petition in Punjab High Court saying it will be shutting down operations at the Kala Raipur multi-modal logistics park after having incurred huge losses due to the dharna (sit down protest). The protesters feel this is a victory." If the government wants more investment it needs to generate confidence and trust, wrote Jain. Voodoo is scary. So is reverse voodoo.              

Won the war? How to win the peace?

Former President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani has been granted asylum in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after he escaped from Taliban's takeover of Kabul, Hindustan Times (HT). Such was the speed of Taliban's advance that, "I was evacuated in a condition where I couldn't even put on my shoes," said Ghani, news18.com. "People who didn't speak the local languages stormed the presidential palace and were looking for me, I was evacuated." Who were these people who did not speak local languages? "Pashto and Persian (Dari), both Indo-European languages, are the official languages of the country. More than two-fifths of the population speak Pashto, the language of Pashtuns, while about half speak some dialect of Persian," Britannica. Were they Al Qaeda fighters who originate from many nationalities, Britannica, or Pakistani Army soldiers majority of whom are Punjabis, The Indian Express (TIE). It has been a disaster for US President Joe Biden. "President Biden assured Americans that the Taliban would not storm the US Embassy in Kabul the same way the North Vietnamese stormed the US Embassy in Saigon in 1975", but "Just weeks later, US troops flew helicopters to the embassy in Kabul, rescuing diplomats as the Taliban stormed the building," "It was the most contemptible speech by a US president (Biden) in modern times -- a speech that shames America and leaves its global reputation in the dirt," Daily Mail (DM). "His abject surrender to the Taliban was dressed up as political reality and common sense. His scuttle from Kabul, still ongoing, was depicted as geopolitical wisdom and a refocusing of US priorities. Any mistakes or problems were the fault of others, from Trump to the Afghan army." "President has been slammed for the 'bald-faced' lie that chaos in Kabul during the final stages of withdrawal was inevitable after saying for months it was not," DM. The former administration of Donald Trump was negotiating a peace deal with the Taliban in Doha which entailed a withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan, lawstanfordedu. Was Joe Biden handcuffed by this peace deal, as he is claiming? "Still, Trump spoke cautiously about the deal's prospects for success, warning of military firepower if 'bad things happen'," AP. Biden started reversing all of Trump's policies from the moment he came into office by issuing a series of executive orders, BBC, so his claims of being bound by Trump's agreement with the Taliban is a shameful lie. "Many see what has unfolded on Biden's watch in Afghanistan as a linear continuation of Donald Trump's America First policies -- and as some have joked cruelly, not as well organised. That is potentially deeply damaging," (Trump hating) BBC. Biden sneaked into the White House in a hotly disputed election, with over half of Republican voters suspecting that the election was "rigged", Reuters. Biden must be finding that winning was easy compared to occupying the Oval Office. After the initial euphoria, the Taliban will probably find that winning was a cakewalk compared to running the country. The US has halted "bulk shipment of dollars headed for Afghanistan" and "is also blocking Taliban access to government accounts managed by the Federal Reserve", foxnews. "Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) has reserves of roughly $9bn, most of which is held in America," BBC, and "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Afghanistan will no longer be able to access the lender's resources," BBC. Afghanistan economy is dependent on foreign aid, without which the currency will fall, inflation will rise and the poor will be badly hurt. Though Afghanistan remains poor and a center of opium supply to the world, much has changed in the last 20 years, BBC. Especially women, many of whom have attended schools and college, earn their own money and have discovered western fashion. Now that people have discovered western decadence will they accept the Taliban's version of the Sharia? The Taliban, like Biden, may find winning was easy. But, how do they win the peace?     

Will emotional theories increase economic growth?

A "consumer confidence survey published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) before its last monetary policy meeting of 6 August" "made for grim reading", wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "Expectations on income for the near term have worsened, from -50 in May to -59 in July." "Expectations for spending on non-essential items have worsened not only for the present but also one year from now." A total of 45% of households think that current inflation rate is above 10% and a total of 43% of households think that inflation will be above 10% one year from now. Curiously, 13.3% of households think that future inflation will be less than 1%. These people maybe the hardcore supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who are known as Bhakts, which means devotees, Times of India (TOI). News media have repeatedly exposed how the government has been deliberately hiding rates of infections and fatalities due to the coronavirus, BBC, yet this has hardly affected Modi's popularity. According to US data intelligence company Morning Consult, "People who 'approved' Modi fell from 82% exactly one year ago to 63% now, while those who specifically disapproved his policies rose from a mere 16% to 30%, The Wire. Shows, that Modi's support base is solid. The RBI and the Finance Ministry have not commented on the prospects of 'tapering' of the US Federal Reserve's purchase of $120 billion worth of bonds every month but this will decrease liquidity, which will lessen foreign inflows into Indian markets, and expectations of rising interest rate in the US will "dampen capital markets, harden bond yields and depreciate the India rupee, there by introducing inflationary impulses to the country's economy", wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "As things stand, despite the assertions of fostering growth, India's gross domestic product (GDP) is unlikely to reach 2019-20 levels anytime soon." "India's current economic predicament sharpens the oddities, economic stagnation combined with the possibility of rising prices." "State Bank of India (SBI), India's largest lender, is making it easy and cheap for Indians to monetize their most cherished asset -- gold," wrote Aparna Iyer. "At the same time, gold is being auctioned in increasing amounts by lenders to recover money from distressed borrowers." If the price of gold falls from the rate at which the borrower had pledged it, then the bank sells off a certain amount of gold to make up for the fall in the value of its security. This is known as 'margin call', Investopedia. So, the distressed person loses his valuable security but still has to repay the amount borrowed. A double hammer blow. "Credit rating upgrades of corporates by multiple agencies outpaced downgrades in the June quarter, indicating rising debt servicing ability despite the second wave of covid," wrote Nasrin Sultana and Shayan Ghosh. Of course, they did. The RBI has been suppressing interest rate at record low level of 4%, indiatoday.in, allowing companies to pay back their more expensive loans by borrowing at cheaper rates. "As HSBC's Pranjul Bhandari has repeatedly pointed out, gains to the formal sector post the pandemic have come at the cost of putting small, informal firms out of business. And while this 'forced formalisation' has kept profitability high, it has left the bulk of India's households, which find employment in the informal sector, financially vulnerable," wrote Yamini Aiyar. No matter. Private final consumption expenditure was around 3% in three of the six years between 1997-98 and 2002-03, "Yet, in the following five years, India witnessed a credit and investment boom," wrote Nageswaran. So, he sees no reason for private companies not to invest in expanding capacity to increase jobs creation and stimulate the economy. Average consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 3.81% in 2003 and 3.77% in 2004. It soared to 10.83% in 2009 as the rate of growth increased. CPI inflation was 5.59% in July 2021, indiainfoline.com. Capacity utilization dropped to 68.6% during the third quarter (1 September-31 December) of 2019-20, well before the Covid epidemic struck India. With so much spare capacity why would any company make new investment? Perhaps, Prof Nageswaran is turning into a Bhakt. Sad.          

We become poorer every time they promise to enrich us.

"On the 75th anniversary of India's Independence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched for the country's transformation to newer heights, new levels of prosperity, world-class modern infrastructure, and access to quality facilities for all Indians irrespective of the region or class they belong in the next 25 years," The Indian Express (TIE). He announced a new 'Prime Minister Gati Shakti national master plan' which will be worth Rs 100 trillion "worth of infrastructure schemes that will generate employment opportunities". In an interview, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "Fuel prices will feed into inflation, all of us are aware of it." Crude oil prices were $90-$100 a barrel till 2014 and then dropped to $30-40 per barrel from 2015 onwards, macrotrends.net. In April 2020, the price of US oil turned negative for the first time in history, BBC. "Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. As a result, oil firms have resorted to renting tankers to store the surplus supply and that has forced the price of US oil into negative territory. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US oil fell as low a minus $37.63 a barrel." But this dramatic fall in the price of oil was not passed on to Indian customers. Why? "Yes, because we needed resources for the infrastructure and those were the times where we were very clearly coming up with a big plan for building the fundamental infrastructure," said Sitharaman. Eminently laudable. Why then are we forced to pay enormous toll tax to drive on so-called highways? Toll tax between Delhi and Jaipur is Rs 320 for a distance of 281 km, tollbetween.com. It takes 4hrs and 59 min to travel 281 km which means an average speed of 56 km/hour. What kind of highway is this? Distance between Delhi and Mumbai is 1415 km with 21 toll plazas on the way extracting Rs 1405 for one way and takes 1 full day, tollbetween.com. That is almost Re 1 per km. and these could be old charges. "The government would have easily given relief from high oil prices if it did not have to bear the cost of oil bonds that the previous government had issued to companies," said Sitharaman couple of days back. Actually, the previous government from 2014-2019 was also a Modi government with absolute majority, wikipedia. She means the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by the Congress Party which was in power from 2004-2014, wikipedia. They issued bonds to oil companies in lieu of cash to keep fuel prices under control when crude oil was around $100 a barrel. The total cost of oil bonds issued by the UPA government was Rs 1.34 trillion and repayment is not due till 2025-26. Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala alleged that the Modi government has "extorted" Rs 22. 33,868 trillion in the last 7 years and this "Modi Tax" on petrol and diesel will amount to Rs 4.53,812 trillion in 2020-21 alone, Economic Times (ET). He accused Sitharaman of lying. Is the stock market in bubble zone? "But it couldn't have sustained itself through 2020 Covid and through the second wave Covid and enter into the second half of 2021. So, it's not a blip is what I feel," she said. "I do not think fundamentally there is anything that you can talk about in this market because according to all fundamental metrics, the market is extremely overvalued. There is promoter after promoter selling their stake in their companies," said Rajat Sharma. "And I am not talking about IPOs, I am talking about listed companies where promoters are reducing their stakes." This is the same Ms Sitharaman who revealed a dramatic stimulus package worth an eye-watering Rs 20 trillion over 5 suspenseful days in May 2020, Times of India (TOI). Global securities research firm Sanford Bernstein termed it a "wasted opportunity", Hindustan Times (HT). Of the total of $280 billion, "credit guarantees were around $62 billion and liquidity support from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) around $108 billion. Government programs of $173 billion includes $132 billion of loans, $24 billion of fiscal support (0.9% of GDP)", the report said. Instead of Rs 20 trillion in stimulus they have sucked over Rs 20 trillion in taxes. Now Modi is talking of Rs 100 trillion. Terrifying.

Is the snake willing to play as they want?

"The Taliban took control of Afghanistan after the government collapsed on Sunday. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and conceded that the terrorists had won the 20-year war," NDTV. "Just last week, US intelligence analysts had predicted it would likely take several more weeks before Afghanistan's civilian government in Kabul fell to Taliban fighters. In reality, it only took a few short days," CNN. Shows how amateurish US armed forces, intelligence and analysts are. "Although Afghan security forces were well funded and well equipped, they put up little resistance as Taliban militants seized much of the country following the withdrawal of US troops in early July." "The US left Afghanistan's Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the middle of the night without notifying the base's new Afghan commander, who discovered Americans' departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan military officials said," AP. The Americans have apparently been training Afghan forces for over 20 years and they slink away in the middle of the night under cover of darkness. If your teachers run away with their tails between their legs it is not likely to fill Afghan forces with confidence, is it? Looters knew of the craven flight of the Americans before Afghan armed forces and within hours, "Outside the base gates, scrap dealers and vendors were photographed hawking items left behind by the departing Americans, including basketballs, bicycles and helmets, electric fans, noise-canceling headphones -- even laundry detergent," nypost.com. "Analysts and US lawmakers -- both Republicans and Democrat -- have been comparing the so-called fall of Saigon with the Taliban takeover of Kabul," BBC. Images of Americans fleeing in panic from the roof of the US Embassy in Saigon in 1975 are being compared to images from Kabul, the difference being that the numbers in Kabul are much smaller. "As the US races to evacuate diplomats via helicopters from its embassy in Kabul amid the Taliban's rapid advance, President Joe Biden's insistence during a July press conference that this would not happen has resurfaced on social media," Newsweek. It is not entirely Biden's fault, however. Osama bin Laden was killed by US forces in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad in 2011, wikipedia, which helped then President barack Obama win his re-election in 2012. Joe Biden was his Vice-President. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan admitted that "Pakistan's spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) provided the United States with leads that helped them find and kill Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden", Scroll.in. As a reward Obama supplied Pakistan with F16 fighter jets, heavy bombs and advanced missiles, firstpost.com. Biden is being pilloried for his handling of Afghanistan, justly so, but the Taliban is sponsored, trained and armed by Pakistan, News18, and no one knows whether Pakistani army units are directly involved or not. Afghanistan has Iran to the west, Pakistan to the south and east, China in the northeast and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to the north. Taliban are hardline Sunnis, BBC, while Iran is Shia. China seems likely to recognise a Taliban government because, according to certain analysts, Afghanistan has over $1 trillion worth of minerals, including 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium and neodymium, and lodes of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury and lithium", nbcnews.com. "A series of photos published last month by Chinese state media of Foreign Minister Wang Yi standing shoulder to shoulder with visiting Taliban officials decked out in traditional tunic and turban raised eyebrows on the county's social media," Reuters. The Pakistan army must be ecstatic that Afghanistan is now controlled by its proxy, so it can now concentrate on attacking India. Iran has a 25-year trade deal with China, so it might be hoping to bypass US blockade of its ships by trading directly with China over land, wikipedia. All of them want to play with a friendly snake. No one knows what the snake will do. 

Does the RBI have control of our financial markets?

"Rallying for the second straight session, the 30-share Sensex jumped 593.31 points or 1.08% to its new all-time high of 55437.29. It touched an intra-day record of 55,487.79," Hindustan Times (HT). "Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty breached the 16,500 level advancing 164.70 points or 1.01% to its fresh closing peak of 16,529.10. It surged to a record of 16,543.60 during the day." By 1 August, equity investors had added Rs 31 trillion to their wealth in the first 4 months of the current financial year, CNBCTV18. "Retail investors and mutual funds are driving the ongoing bull rally, analysts said," The Indian Express (TIE). "Retail investors are buying stocks without any serious consideration for value. Now, we don't know when and how this rally will end. But we know it will end....and when it does, the new retail investors who have flocked to the market recently will be hit hard," said VK Vijayakumar. A Demat, or dematerialised account, is used to hold, buy and sell shares electronically, Angel Broking. Physical shares have been dematerialised to electronic form and are held in depositories. Brokerages have added an average of 1.3 million new demat accounts every month since April last year, taking the total number of retail investors to 69.7 as of May of this year, outlookindia.com. "India's largest mutual fund asset manager, SBI Mutual Fund, has waved the red flag on the country's stock market," Economic Times (ET). Fund manager, Dinesh Balachandran said, "Primary market activity is flashing warning signs. Such level of activity is normally associated with euphoria (in the market)." And "the internet sentiment index tracked by the mutual fund is also flashing warnings of extreme excitement among retail investors". This is due to global central banks, wrote Ajay Bodke. "TINA or there is no alternative to stocks with bond yields being so low. This is in no small measure due to 'financial repression towards savers' unleashed by global central banks through injection of tens of trillions of dollars of bond-buying programs (Quantitative Easing) that has led to 'manipulation of interest rates' fueling unprecedented speculative fervour in financial risk-assets like equities. FOMO or fear of missing out on another rise in stocks. And BTD, or buy the dip as a firm belief has taken hold that the torrent of monetary and fiscal deluge inundating the financial markets will continue unabated despite clear signs of build-up of debilitating inflationary pressures." But, global central banks do not have direct influence on the Indian economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has total control on money supply and interest rates in India. "Indian retail inflation eased in July after holding above 6% for two months in a row," as "Consumer prices rose 5.59% in July from the same month last year, lower than June's 6.26% annual inflation rate," ET. Despite the high inflation rate, the RBI "kept the repo rate unchanged for the seventh time in a row at 4 percent and maintained its 'accommodative stance', which means a bias towards lowering rates further, indiatoday.in, even while it raised its prediction for the consumer price index (CPI) inflation to 5.7% in this financial year from 5.1% that it had predicted earlier, CNBCTV18. While average CPI inflation was below 2% in the US, in 2020, usinflationcalculator, and was 0.5% in the European Union in 2020, World Bank, it was 6.9% in July last year in India, up from 6.2% in June 2020, Times of India (TOI). Since inflation compounds year-on-year, prices in India are soaring far above the rest of the world. Not content with keeping interest rates below the level of retail inflation, thereby punishing savers, the RBI is aping other central banks by resorting to quantitative easing, cutely named G-SAP or government securities acquisition program. On top of all this, the RBI is buying dollars from the market to keep the rupee from appreciating, so that our foreign exchange reserves have reached a record $621.464 billion, Business Standard. Excessive supply of rupees should make the currency weaker but it is appreciating because of foreign investments of Rs 511.21 billion in our stock markets in 2021, moneycontrol. The RBI cannot raise rates without collapsing the stock markets and causing bankruptcy for millions of first time investors. It has handed over control of our financial markets to foreign investors. We wait like sacrificial lambs.