Monday, September 14, 2020

We get less no matter what the reason.

 "India's retail inflation cooled marginally to 6.69% in August but stayed well above the 6% outer band of the central bank's inflation target, likely ruling out the possibility of a near term rate cut." Consumer price index (CPI) was 6.73% in July, and 3.28% in August 2019. "Food inflation, led by vegetables, pulses, oils and meat & fish, was 9.05% last month, lower than 9.27% in July." "Most large Asian economies have far lower inflation rates" than India, "based on macroeconomic data from 42 countries published every week by The Economist", wrote N Rajadhyaksha. "The second inconvenient fact is that India is one of the few large economies where inflation has actually gone up since the start of the pandemic." On the other hand, "India's wholesale inflation turned positive in August for the first time since March reflecting a recovery in producers' pricing power." Wholesale price index (WPI) was negative from April-July, even as the CPI was consistently higher than the Reserve Bank's (RBI) target of 4%. Even as CPI has stayed higher than its mandate, the RBI, under stewardship of Governor Shaktikanta Das, has been relentlessly cutting interest rate for a total of 115 basis points, down to 4%, this year. Why this wide discrepancy between WPI and CPI? WPI fell because consumer demand collapsed following the lockdown in March and retail sales were dependent on rural demand, financed by government social schemes. Also, international crude oil prices fell sharply because of a fall in global economic activity. The World Bank predicted that "the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year", representing "the deepest recession since the Second World War". High CPI is due to disruption in supply, high taxes, low interest rate and an enormous infusion of liquidity by the RBI, and higher import prices, wrote Rajadhyaksha. Taxes on oil have been increased so much that up to 70% of the retail price of fuel constitutes of central and state taxes. Custom duties were raised on hundreds of imported products in this year's budget, apparently to help local industry by stopping dumping by Chinese companies. The effect is to increase prices people pay for these products and allows local companies to sell inferior quality products at high prices. Toyota Motor Corp has announced a halt in any further investment in India because high taxes take its cars out of reach for most Indians. There is an almost messianic belief in low interest rate in India because a large constituent of CPI is food inflation and this depends on supplies and is not directly influenced by interest rate. However, high food prices increase rural income and demand and is sure to result in higher wage demands, especially from labor. At best, we get much less for our buck.  

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