Friday, September 18, 2020

The worst of locking and unlocking.

 "New Zealand is in its deepest recession in decades, following strict measures in response to the Covid-19 pandemic which were widely praised. The country's GDP shrank by 12.2% between April and June as the lockdown and border closures hit." Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern suggested a quick recovery in the economy, "However Treasury forecasts released yesterday suggested massive debt and continuing disruptions are likely to delay a full recovery." A study by the Center for Economic Policy Research and the World Economic Forum suggested that female leaders have done much better than men in controlling coronavirus infections and deaths. The paper suggested that it was because of "the proactive and coordinated policy responses" by female leaders. So confident was Ardern in her popularity that she called for general elections on 19 September. However, early shutdown to prevent infections leaves a large naive population with no herd immunity. New infections broke out in Auckland resulting in another strict lockdown, forcing Ardern to postpone elections to 17 October under pressure. Sweden, with a male prime minister, refused to lockdown the country with the result that infection rate has fallen to 1.3%, lower than Norway and Denmark which enforced strict lockdowns. India has the worst of both worlds. "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into what was one of the strictest lockdowns in the world," wrote Jha and Mullick, which brought the entire economy to a standstill. Forced by rising hunger the government started unlocking the economy in June while cases were rising. The Union Home Ministry announced unlock 4.0 on 30 August. With 93,337 new cases yesterday the total number has now climbed beyond 5.3 million. However, even with these astronomical numbers there is suspicion of under-reporting of the number of cases and the number of deaths. Non-communicable diseases (NCD), such as diabetes, hypertension and cardio-vascular diseases, "account for 63% of all deaths in India and these are expected to rise further", wrote Kukarni and Galha. But now, "Not only are they denied medical attention, they also have to bear the brunt of hospitals going all out to accommodate covid patients." Outpatient cancer care, immunization of children and hospital child births have all dropped which portend a horrific healthcare crisis, wrote Ragini Saxena. However, optimists hope that punishment for spitting in streets and mandatory face masks to control covid spread may eliminate tuberculosis from the country. Life, death, infection, jobs, hunger, everything is unknown for us in India. "In God we trust," say Americans, we shrug "Ram Bharose."  

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