Friday, September 11, 2020

It's all in the eyes of beholders.

 "Despite the mounting criticism on several fronts, including the slowing economy and the nationwide protests against the amended citizenship law, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal popularity has remained as high as 68 percent, the India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) results show." That was in January. Then came the total lockdown with just 4 hours notice, which brought the economy to a standstill and forced millions of poor migrant laborers to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages, with families and little children. A repeat MOTN survey in August showed that, "A resounding 78 percent of the people surveyed found the performance of PM Modi to be outstanding/good." Magic. "The economy has been struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak", the goods and services tax (GST) "is causing compliance nightmares for SMEs (small and medium enterprises)", demonetization "ruined the prospects of agriculture and SMEs", the government has "empowered tax officials with sweeping powers", it has embraced the "failed Congress policy" of trade protectionism and "Headline corruption seems to be under control, but retail corruption which actually determines ease of doing business on the ground, remains unabated," wrote Ritesh Singh. So why doesn't the government institute bold reforms despite a comfortable majority in parliament? Because, Modi "is confident of holding on to office irrespective of how the economy performs". The economy has been slowing down from "8.2% in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 to 3.1% in the same quarter of 2019-20", not because of any exogenous shock, but because of "government's policy adventurism", wrote Prof Himanshu. "Last year's tax waiver for India's corporate sector of around Rs 1.5 trillion was another example of policy adventurism", which did not benefit the unorganized sector, while "the organized sector used the largesse not to increase investments, but to balance their accounts". "As the BJP has journeyed from being a party of opposition to a party of power, its idealism and ideology lie compromised in the quest for total supremacy," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. "In the process, the BJP's once highly-disciplined party structure now risks ideological incoherence". "How does Modi do it?" asked Mihir Sharma. "The most adept populist leaders don't only detach the electorate's perception from inconvenient facts, providing an alternate narrative in which they, and they alone, are the stars." "All that matters is that people believe that you did something big, something that only you would dare to do, and that you did it for the best reasons." It also shows a total disregard for suffering, an ability to coldly ignore starving children and a cheerful indifference to a collapse in the nation's economy, only to stay on in power. And a nation of goats.

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