Thursday, September 17, 2020

Friendship born of fear.

 "US President Donald Trump on Tuesday hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for the signing of the historic Abraham Accord, which is the first Arab-Israeli peace deal in 26 years." "As per the agreements, the UAE and Bahrain will establish embassies, exchange ambassadors, cooperate and work together with Israel across a wide range of sectors, including tourism, trade, healthcare and security." Agreement with the UAE was reached last month. "The agreement is called the 'Abraham Accord' after the father of monotheistic religions founded in the Middle East -- Christianity, Islam and Judaism." The first peace treaty with an Arab state was between Israel and Egypt in 1979 and the second one was between Israel and Jordan in 1994, both of which border Israel and fought wars with it. Hence, many people have dismissed the importance of this agreement because Israel does not share borders with either the UAE or Bahrain and has never been at war with them. "It's a geopolitical earthquake," wrote Thomas L Friedman after the deal with the UAE. "The deal will certainly encourage the other gulf sheikhdoms -- Bahrain, Oman Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia -- all of which have had covert and overt business and intelligence dealings with Israel, to follow the Emirates' lead." Perhaps, the agreement with Bahrain is more important because the majority of its population are  Shia Muslims but the rulers are Sunnis. The overwhelming majority of Muslims in Iran are Shia. Bahrain is connected to the Al Khobar region of Saudi Arabia by the King Fahd Causeway. Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunnis with a minority Shia population, who live in the Eastern region, which is also the oil producing region of the kingdom. Iran and Saudi Arabia are bitter enemies because Iran is Persian while Saudi is Arab, difference in religion, and Saudi Arabia is home to Mecca and Medina, the holiest shrines in Islam, which the Ayatollahs of Iran would dearly love to control. In April last year, "Saudi Arabia quietly beheaded 37 people, mostly Shia men from the country's Eastern Province", on a charge of spying for Iran. In 2011, the Saudis sent troops into Bahrain "to help calm weeks of protests by the Shi'ite Muslim majority", and help maintain the Sunni control of the island. Shia Houthis in Yemen have been firing missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia on a regular basis. Thus, Israel and Saudi Arabia have an incentive in common enemy Iran to normalise relations. Could they jointly bomb Iran if there is strong evidence that Iran is close to building a nuclear device? Definitely possible. 

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