How green are the shoots?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi "pointed to the 'green shoots in the economy' such as rising power consumption which was earlier falling, doubling of fertilizer sale in May compared to last year, a 13% increase in Kharif sowing this year, two-wheeler demand and production reaching 70% of prelockdown level, increase in toll collection in May and bouncing back of exports in June to last year's levels after three months of downfall." "India's electricity generation during the first half of June fell at a slightly faster rate than in May," as "Power generation fell 14.5 percent in the first 15 days of June, a Reuters analysis of daily load despatch data from federal grid operator POSOCO showed, compared to 14.3 percent fall in May." So, power consumption is rising while generation is falling. Miracle! Exports fell 36.47% in May after a 60.28% fall in April. Suddenly it jumped, when "The global economy, which has plunged into a severe contraction, will shrink by 5.2 percent this year due to the massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and the shutdown measures to contain it, the World Bank said on Monday." Another miracle. The question then is, why were exports falling for seven straight months last year before rising in February 2020? who is responsible? Toll collection maybe bouncing but, "Gross tax collections were estimated to be over 30% lower till mid June on the back of a sharp decline in advance tax payment," which were in line with "GST collections during April and May, which were estimated at 45% of the average." The best news is that, "Data drawn from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has revealed that India's unemployment rate fell to 11.6% in the week ended 14 June, down from 17.5% in the previous week," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Let us not forget that economic growth was on a downslide even before the covid crisis." "Private consumption, which was already weakening, appears to have taken a heavy blow this financial year." Global securities research firm Sanford Bernstein said that the Rs 20 trillion economic stimulus package was a "lost opportunity". "Government programs of $173 billion includes $132 billion of loans, $24 billion of fiscal support (0.9% of GDP) and rest largely for foodgrains etc, which is from Food Corporation of India (FCI) stock and other schemes." Increase free food to the poor through the Public Distribution System (PDS), wrote Prof Himanshu. "As on 31 May, government stocks of foodgrains stood at 97 million tonnes, including unmilled paddy." Buffer requirement is "30 million tonnes as on 1 October". Lack of storage space means that "India wastes around food worth $14 billion each year, according to government figures." Distribution of the extra food stocks will reduce hunger and increase disposable incomes, which will increase spending and give a boost to the economy, suggests Prof Himanshu. But, will increased food distribution bring down prices of food grains and hurt incomes of farmers? Not easy to solve a problem when you are the cause.