Saturday, June 06, 2020

It was already sliding down, now it is precipitous.

"India's unemployment rate fell between July 2018 and June 2019 to 5.8% from 6.1% during the same period of 2017-18, even as the labor force participation rate rose to 37.5% from 36.9%." Labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the proportion of civilian working age population who are employed or actively looking for work. LFPR in the US was 62.7% in March 2020. It explains the enormous difference in wealth creation between India and the US. "The India economy grew 6.1% in 2018-19, slower than the 7% expansion recorded the year before." Why was the LFPR in the US double that of ours when economic growth in the US during the same period was half of that in India? Actually, "The Indian economy has been losing growth momentum for three consecutive years beginning 2017-18. GDP growth was 8.3% in 2016-17. It fell to 7% in 2017-18, 6.1% in 2018-19 and 4.2%  in 2019-20," wrote Roshan Kishore. India has lost growth momentum for three consecutive years only twice before -- from 1970-71 to 1972-73, due to Bangladesh war, and again in 1989-90 to 1991-92, due to the Gulf War. The government reduced corporate tax rate from 30% to 22% to boost investment and supplies, but demand had dropped, so capacity utilisation "touched an all-time low in December 2019". Then the coronavirus hit and Prime Minister Narendra Modi put the country in a stringent lockdown, starting 25 March. The economy came to almost a standstill. In May, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman revealed a stimulus package, said to be worth Rs 20 trillion, over 5 days. But most of the money is to make it easier for businesses to borrow, in an effort to stimulate supplies, but not enough to stimulate demand, which has collapsed. Global securities research firm Sanford Bernstein called the package a "lost opportunity" "Government programs of $173 billion includes $132 billion of loans, $24 billion of fiscal support (0.9% of GDP) and rest largely for food grains etc, which is from Food Corporation of India (FCI) stock and other schemes." "You might say that when the patient is crashing, I am trying to ease the pain a little," said Swaminathan Aiyar. "But aggregate demand is collapsing at a time when supply itself is collapsing, because the lockdowns have interrupted all kinds of production chains. The outlook is grim." Indians care little for the economy, wrote Chetan Bhagat. "You still can and will continue to to get a graduate in India for less than Rs 7,500, or $100, a month. This is what a minimum wage McDonald's burger flipper makes in the US in one eight-hour shift (and no PPP nonsense explains this dichotomy)." "In the eyes of the government, ease of doing business is an entrepreneur having tea and Marie biscuits with an IAS officer, where the latter allows the entrepreneur to do business." And, Indian businessmen are more interested in promoting their children than in innovation. The middle-class does care about the economy but governments are elected by the legions of poor whose survival depends on government handouts. Poverty gives power to politicians and civil servants. Why should they change?

No comments: