Is self-reliance a preparation for depression?

Economist Surjit S Bhalla explained that according to the IMF policy tracker (IMF-PT) India's economic package "is estimated to be at least 3.5 percent of GDP as expenditure for poor households, migrant workers  and agriculture". In May, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled a Rs 20 trillion package of economic stimulus over 5 days to mitigate the effects of the economic shutdown, which was to control spread of the coronavirus. But a report calculated that the cost of new stimulus measures would be Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) and the total of actual spending would be Rs 1.50 lakh crore (Rs 1.5 trillion) or 0.75% of the GDP. TK Arun was not impressed with the stimulus package. "Some of the proposed reforms are sound. And some of the promised money is likely to be spent and benefit the people. But there is not a large supply of these bits." "The support for businesses (MSMEs) is estimated to be 2.7 percent. Of this, at least 2 percent of GDP is in the form of 100 percent credit guarantees and equity infusion," wrote Bhalla. "About 35% of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and 37% of self-employed individuals have started shutting their businesses, saying they saw no chance of recovery in the wake of the covid outbreak, a survey by the All India Manufacturers' Organisation has revealed." "Over the last few weeks, analysts of various hues were having a field day with their growth projections for the India economy," wrote Anil Padmanabhan. But, "Leave alone a year from now, I doubt anyone has an idea about the next quarter of the current fiscal year." Why? Because, "The machinations of the Union government with respect to the release of official data over the last one year has further eroded the credibility of the data." The economy has been slowing down since 2017 but a lack of credible data makes it difficult to formulate corrective policies. The Modi government is directly responsible for interfering with inconvenient data, resulting in the resignation of two independent members of the National Statistical Commission. "These inconvenient facts about the economy came as a surprise because the government has made sure that there is no data to decipher," wrote MP for Congress MV Rajeev Gowda. Trouble is, India's "foreign exchange reserves hit an all-time high of $490 billion in the week-ended May 22 on account of foreign direct investments (FDI), net inflow of funds by FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) in domestic equities over the last couple of weeks". Why is this a problem? Because in the absence of credible data foreigners make their own assessments of the dangers of investing in India. Moody's has just reduced India's credit rating to Baa3, with negative outlook. This is not such a big deal because Moody's upgraded India in 2017, so it brings Moody's in line with S&P and Fitch. Any further downgrade will take us to junk status. Is that why Modi is going on about "atmanirbhar", meaning self reliance? Because he expects foreigners to flee a sinking economy. Terrifying.