Wednesday, June 17, 2020

How to plug the huge hole in the economy?

"The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said that India's economy could prove the most resilient in South Asia and its large market will continue to attract market-seeking investments to the country even as it expects a dramatic fall in global foreign direct investment." This is good because, "Due to the Covid-19 crisis, global FDI flows are forecast to nosedive by up to 40% in 2020", but South Asia consists of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, so it is not really like for like. "India received USD 51 billion in foreign investments in 2019 and was the world's 9th largest recipient of foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2019, according to a report by the UN's trade body," behind China, Hong Kong and Singapore, and well below remittances from Indians living abroad which, at $79 billion, was highest in the world in 2018, according to the World Bank. "India's economy to shrink by 3.2 percent in the current fiscal, the World Bank said." The wholesale price index (WPI) fell by 3.21% in May which shows a collapse in demand and could be a sign of oncoming recession, wrote Aparna Iyer. "The biggest contributor to WPI deflation was crude, petroleum and natural gas, which showed a fall of 46.21%, a fallout of the crash in global prices." "A collapse in consumer spending in India, the bedrock of the economy, shows very little sign of rebounding anytime soon," wrote Anirban Nag and Srushti Madre. Retail sales, number of credit card transactions, spending on credit cards and consumer confidence are all down sharply. "Our economy was hit by both supply and demand shocks. If an unlocked India were to suddenly see a production outstrip consumption, we would have too much on sale for too few buyers. This could send prices sliding at the retail level too," wrote an editorial in Mint. "The textbook response to such an economic seizure is for the government to play spender-in-chief." Instead of a fiscal stimulus the government is draining the economy of cash by eye-watering taxes on fuel. "The price of petrol in Delhi on 7 June was Rs 71.86 per liter, according to BPCL. Of this, Rs 32.98 went to the Center as excise and Rs 16.58 to the Delhi government as value-added tax (VAT). In other words, taxes amounted to nearly 69% of the price." "An 11-year low trade deficit is portending a current account surplus for India in FY21," wrote Aparna Iyer. This is unwelcome because it shows a collapse in demand. R Jagannathan has found a simple solution to the threat of recession. Change the fiscal year to 1 January - 31 December from 1 April - 31 March, as at present, and present the annual budget in October. By October we could have a more accurate picture of the economy. Firstly, the government may not want to acknowledge dire economic figures and, secondly, what if external factors, like oil prices rising above $100 a barrel in October, causes the recession to become worse. Will we have another budget in December and another change in fiscal year? Not easy to repair a hole in the bucket. Especially, when all the money has leaked out.  

No comments: