Thursday, November 07, 2019

Don't tell them, they'll only take the juicy bits.

Defending Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), S Sivramkrishna wrote, "Theoretically and institutionally, an economically sovereign country issuing its own fiat currency cannot face a solvency crisis. The government can issue an unlimited quantum of money into existence through printing, or by means that would be more appropriate today, such as computer keystrokes, which, incidentally, is what the former US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke referred to when he was asked how he bailed our private banks with some $5 trillion after the 2008 US recession." "MMT does not answer how heavy fiscal spending is eventually to be paid for. It cannot be by money printed out of thin air. It has got to be through current or future taxes (i.e. debt). There's simply no other way," wrote A Ranade. MMT argues that taxes are merely "a tool to take money out of an economy that is getting overheated" and to reduce inequality. But inflation is not inevitable. "Japan with a debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio of 250%, struggles to check deflation, while Zimbabwe, even with an average 75% debt-to-GDP ratio since the 1990s is unable to tame hyperinflation." Exactly. Japan has a population of 126.3 million with a GDP of $5.15 trillion and per capita GDP of $40,847. Japan's fertility rate is just 1.42 which is probably why there is no inflation because there is falling consumer demand, whereas government spending and deficit are high to cover pensions and healthcare of a rapidly ageing population. Zimbabwe, on the other hand, has a population of 16 million but a GDP of only $22.290 billion and a per capita GDP of just $1,424. Clearly, Zimbabwe does not produce enough for a small population, so with a fertility rate of 3.98 per woman, leading to increasing demand, it is unable to control rising prices. India is neither Zimbabwe nor Japan. India has a population of 1.3 billion with a GDP estimated to be around $2.9 trillion. However, even with the fertility rate falling to around 2.3, demand is so huge that when fiscal deficit spiked to 5.91% of GDP in 2011-12, retail inflation soared to over 10%. Trouble with unorthodox ideas is that Indian politicians will pick the parts they like, leaving out essential parts they do not. Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly withdrew all high denomination notes on 8 November 2016 in the belief that people were hiding large volumes of cash without paying income tax. Since that failed the government sets enormous targets on tax officials resulting in extortion of money from law abiding citizens. When the previous Chief Economic Adviser suggested that the government use Reserve Bank (RBI) reserves to refinance banks the government virtually forced the RBI governor to resign and appointed a retired civil servant as governor who then transferred Rs 1.76 trillion to the government. Banks have not been recapitalized. These weird  economic theories should stay within textbooks and should never be brought in the open. Once politicians get hold of them we suffer.

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