Monday, November 25, 2019

Those who can, go abroad. Those who can't, do as little as possible.

In a regretful article, S Deb wrote about his 80 year old uncle who has been manufacturing precision cutting tools for the leather industry with about 50 workers for over 4 decades. "Throughout his business life, he has had to fight a corrupt inspector raj and tax terrorism. He has faced every problem that a hostile and greedy bureaucracy can pose to an entrepreneur who does not have political connections." But now, "Faced with complex and ever-changing tax regulations, and the onslaught of cheap Chinese products, he seemed to be close to the end of his tether." The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was described as a "Good and simple tax" by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. GST was supposed to incorporate all indirect taxes on goods and services so as to have a single rate throughout India, and avoid cascading effect. In practice, the rules are complicated and keep changing so that small businesses have to employ trained accountants to file returns, increasing costs. "Every tax man in the country is chasing unrealistically steep targets, so queries on returns filed are soaring. And, even after you get a message from the tax department that it is satisfied with your clarification, you may get another one saying, no, it has been 'suo moto rejected'." The Budget estimated a nominal growth rate of GDP of 12% and an increase of 3% on GST. Nominal GDP growth fell to 8% in the first quarter, while real GDP growth, when adjusted for inflation, fell to 5%. Naturally, with GDP growth rate falling, GST collections have dropped to below expectations. Real GDP growth is expected to fall to 4.2-4.7% in the second quarter, ending 30 September. The budget projected a 13.4% increase in government expenditure which cannot be reduced. Salaries of government employees are increased without the slightest increase in productivity. When average retail inflation is still below 4% why they are receiving Dearness (which means expensive) Allowance at 17% is a mystery at best, and plunder at worst. "A total of 60.3 million individuals have worked under the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) til 23 November of fiscal year 2019-20." The number is expected to reach 90 million till the end of the financial year. MGNREGS gives 100 days of wages to the rural unemployed as a dole. "In the financial year (FY) 2018-19, banks disbursed Rs 12.55 trillion as GLC (ground level credit) to agriculture, surpassing the government's target of Rs 11 trillion," wrote Prof Ashok Gulati. Low rates of interest allows farmers "to take crop loans at subsidised interest rates from the banking sector and then divert them for non-agricultural purposes". Also, farmers take loans in the belief that if they hang on long enough all loans will be forgiven before elections. Since money doesn't grow on trees it has to be extorted. Deb's uncle should retire and send his son abroad. Only solution.

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