Saturday, November 02, 2019

This will need some oration.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) could grow 6.6% in 2020-24, lower than its 2013-17 average of 7.4%, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Saturday." Provided bad loans at banks, presently valued at over Rs 9 trillion, are recapitalized and the difference in infrastructure between urban and rural areas is reduced. This should be cause for celebration since it is over 3 times the growth rate of the US economy which grew 1.9% in the 3rd quarter of 2019. While a 2% growth rate is considered not bad for the $21 trillion US economy, it would be considered a disaster for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has promised to double our GDP to $5 trillion by 2024, when he will be up for re-election. "The country will need to grow by 9 percent every year for five years continuously and raise aggregate investment to 38 percent of GDP to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi's target of turning India into a USD 5 trillion economy, EY has said." Also our exports have to rise to over $1 trillion per year, wrote Prof Ram Singh. Unfortunately, "If the India story isn't dead it's certainly on life support," wrote Mihir Sharma. "The immediate concern is crashing demand." But, "Promoting consumer demand should never have been considered a sustainable growth model in the first place. Instead India should have been focusing on encouraging greater levels of private investment." "Rural household consumption slumped to a seven-year low in the September quarter, in a sign that the prolonged agrarian distress and near-stagnant rural incomes have eroded demand for consumer goods, market researcher Nielsen said." The distress is evident from falling sales of cheap items such as biscuits and soap, wrote S Bera. This is the crucial vote bank. It is not a matter of economics. Promoting consumer demand is a cover for increasing social schemes. Modi has started numerous schemes since coming to power in 2014, in addition to those already running from previous governments. All these schemes need to be financed from government revenue. Which are falling. Goods and Services Tax (GST) "revenues stood at Rs 95,380 crore (Rs 953.80 billion), up from Rs 91,916 crore in September this year but lower than Rs 1,00,710 crore (Rs 1.0071 trillion) in October 2018, according to official data released on Friday." As demand for consumer goods went down earnings from freight for Indian Railways also fell by Rs 39.01 billion and passenger traffic fell by Rs 1.55 billion. Falling revenues will impact the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% and falling remittances from the Indian diaspora may impact our current account deficit. Luckily, Narendra Modi is considered India's best orator.

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