Tuesday, November 12, 2019

No money, no business. No need for electricity.

"India's factory output shrank for the second straight month at 4.3% in September, recording its worst show since the present series was launched in April 2012." Data released by the statistics department on Monday showed capital goods that indicate investment demand in the economy shrinking 20.7% in its ninth straight month of contraction, while both consumer durables and consumer non-durables also contracted, signalling a continued slump in consumer demand." Normally, there should have been a surge in consumer spending in September because of the Hindu festivals of Dussehra and Diwali in October, but more than half of 16 macroeconomic indicators tracked by Mint were in the red. The State Bank of India predicted that GDP growth will fall to 4.2% in the second quarter, ending on 30 September, worse than the 5% in the first. "The country will need to grow by 9 percent every year for five years continuously and raise aggregate investment rate to 38% of GDP to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi's target of turning India into a USD 5 trillion economy, EY has said." "India's electricity demand fell 13% in October led by a sharp reduction in offtake from the industrialised states like Gujarat and Maharashtra, which may indicate a deepening economic slowdown although officials said this was just an aberration." This despite decorative lights on almost every building during the week of Diawli. This has happened because Modi's ruling party, the BJP has concentrated all its energy on widening its voter base by continuing with "the welfare schemes of the earlier era even while adding some of their own", wrote P Bhattacharya. "There was hardly any attempt at slashing subsidies." The government used "creative accounting" to hide the increasing fiscal deficit, but, "Once such adjustments are taken into account, it appears that India has had an unstated fiscal expansion since at least fiscal 2017." To finance its extra spending the government "put a laser-like focus on mobilizing resources, ostensibly to correct a 'low tax-gdp ratio". India's biggest success has been the telecoms sector which has created millions of jobs in information technology, wrote Mihir Sharma. The Supreme Court has ruled that telecom companies owe nearly $13 billion to the government, including a "hefty penalty - as well as interest on both". Vodafone Idea has a debt of $14 billion, while Airtel's debt is over $15 billion. This is because of exorbitant charges for spectrum and different types of fees. Indian telecom has been a bad dream for foreign investors, said Marten Pieters of Vodafone. The last foreign investor Vodafone may exit India. Others left long ago. As if to hasten Vodafone's departure the government is to demand 10% more than what the companies owe. Money is finite. If they take all of it there will be none left to pay for electricity. Darkness beckons.     

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