Saturday, March 30, 2019

Will tiering help all nineteen countries?

"For a while now, the Banque de France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau has been pushing the idea of 'tiering' to ease the pain that's been inflicted on commercial banks by negative interest rates," wrote M Ashworth. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced a negative interest rate in 2014, which has been held at -0.40%, till next year. "The ECB slashed its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent" and "core inflation is still below the bank's target." The ECB has been struggling with Italy's budget crisis and Britain's endless struggle to get the Brexit deal ratified by parliament. Italy's budget crisis was averted at the last minute in December. Europe's biggest economy Germany narrowly avoided a recession at the last moment. "At the moment, euro zone lenders are essentially having to pay to park their excess deposits with their central banks, putting a squeeze on profits. Tiering would exempt some of those excess reserves from the lowest rate, thereby lowering the cost to the banks." Prof VA Nageswaran warned against praising ECB President Mario Draghi who is to step down from his post in November this year. His policies have not been successful because "the Eurozone economy is gasping for oxygen. In other words, if a patient fell sick (again) immediately after the medicine was withdrawn, then did the medicine leave the patient better off or did it render him worse off?" "By misjudging the secular decline in potential growth as a secular stagnation or deficient aggregate demand" which required "some redistribution through higher taxation and targeted relief for bottom quintiles of the population", "Draghi's monetary policy is thus part of the problem." There are other lurking dangers. Financial markets have "convinced themselves that collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are much safer instruments than collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, on which they're based and which helped precipitate the 2008 crisis," wrote S Das. CLOs are graded according to risk of default and "banks structuring these packages had to retain a minimum amount of the riskiest securities to ensure they had skin in the game". Since "Borrowers are highly leveraged" there is danger of margin calls in case of default and "Even buyers of high-quality tranches" "face the possibility of mark-to-market writedowns". So, is there a danger to civilisation? The Roman Empire collapsed because of "overexpansion, climatic change, environmental degradation and poor leadership", wrote L Kemp. At present, "Temperature is a clear metric for climate change, GDP is a proxy for complexity and the ecological footprint is an indicator for environmental degradation. Each of them has been trending steeply upwards." Trouble is, each country has different problems, yet the global economy is linked. How do you treat that? 

No comments: