Sunday, March 10, 2019

Elections in India: the greatest show on earth.

At last, the Election Commission of India announced dates for the general election which will start on 11 April. Votes will be counted on 23 May. The announcement was made on the last possible day, allowing the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to announce a large number of handouts, including new power projects in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which elect 120 Members of Parliament between them, 50 new government schools and a new train line between Odisha and West Bengal. Dates for election in Modi's home state of Gujarat in 2017 was also delayed apparently to allow for relief of flood victims. Modi's party the BJP won the election with 99 seats, a decrease of 16 seats, while the Congress increased its share to 77 from 61 seats in 2012. With the announcement of election dates 'the model code of conduct' comes into effect. This restricts the ruling party from using taxpayer money for advertising, for campaigning while traveling on official business and for announcing handouts. The huge population, with 900 million eligible to vote and constituencies in remote, almost inaccessible areas make elections in India a very interesting spectacle. The only other nation with a population of similar size is China where sham elections are held to consolidate the power of the Communist Party. Already one opinion poll has predicted that Modi will win 264 seats out 543 seats being contested, 272 gives absolute majority. Thankfully, opinion polls have been completely off the mark since 2004 when they predicted an easy win for the BJP, only for the Congress to form the government. Exit polls are supposed to be more accurate in predicting which party is likely to win because they ask how people have actually voted, but in recent years they have been  wildly wrong as well. With 29 states and 7 union territories, speaking in at least 22 official languages and hundreds of dialects, interests of groups and regions govern the way people vote. These vary from caste to falling prices of crops, which impact farmers, to welfare schemes for the poor. Nitish Kumar is supposed to have gained women's votes by prohibiting alcohol in Bihar because women voters outnumber men. Prohibition does not stop the sale of alcoholic drinks and hurts state government finances by transforming taxes on alcohol to profits of smugglers. To neutralize the 'Modi factor' opposition parties are seeking alliances with other parties. Modi attacked this 'Mahagathbandhan', which means a 'grand alliance', as a 'Mahamilawat', which means a 'grand adulteration'. That does not stop the BJP from forming alliances with other parties where it suits it. In a cringe-making statement a politician in Tamil Nadu said that Modi is "daddy" of his party. Lies, chicanery, betrayals, back-stabbing, horse trading, can Netflix beat our elections?

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