Only stars can predict the outcome.

Election fever is in full swing across India and opinion polls predict anything from an outright victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP to a hung parliament. In January, polls were giving a higher share of seats to the opposition, led by the Congress, but the air strikes on a Jaish e-Mohammed training camp at Balakot inside Pakistan on 26 February may have swung the balance in Modi's favor. Naturally, Modi's approval rating increased sharply after the air strike but will people remember it till elections start on 11 April, or will factors such as the price of vegetables and caste divisions become more important? Some politicians have questioned whether the air strike actually took place and a couple of days back, an adviser to Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Sam Pitroda said, "If you say that 300 people were killed, I need to know that. We all need to know that, people of India need to know that and then comes global media which says nobody was killed. I look bad as an Indian citizen." The international media did claim that the attack did not happen, that there was no training camp at Balakot and that satellite images showed that the bombs missed their target and damaged local trees. In a sarcastic move Pakistan filed a police case against Indian Air Force pilots for destroying 19 trees. By questioning the attack the opposition is helping to keep public attention on the air strike, allowing the BJP to claim the high moral ground and question their patriotism. Stupid tactic. Modi is an expert at turning tables on his opponents. In the last elections in 2014, he marketed himself as a 'chaiwallah', a humble tea seller, one of the millions of poor labor. This time he has morphed into a 'chowkidar', a guard who is protecting the nation against the corrupt opposition. As elections draw nearer will the people, especially in rural areas, worry about the actual rate of growth of India's GDP, the vicious attack on our privacy through Aadhaar or the tight noose around journalists who are terrified of questioning the government? At 2.57% in February retail inflation is well within the Reserve Bank's (RBI) comfort level of 2-4%. Wholesale prices rose by 2.91% in February but a RBI survey showed that households think that inflation is 8-9%. It maybe that the people's daily purchases are different to the RBI's basket of goods. It does not matter to people that car sales fell by 8.25% in February, but they will be unhappy if petrol prices rise even higher, which is why the government is not allowing oil companies to raise prices. Modi must win these elections to stay relevant or else there are others waiting in the wings. In the privacy of the voting booth what will voters be thinking of? Astrologers are in great demand.