Modi will win. By what margin?

Dates for the general election in India have been announced and political parties are expected to follow a 'Model Code of Conduct'. However, there is no restriction on what inducements will be on offer to entice voters to cast their ballots for any particular party. Politicians have promised cash handouts for farmers, reservations for more sections of the population and are tying up with as many smaller parties as they can. After denouncing opposition attempts at building a coalition of parties as 'grand adulteration', Prime Minister Narendra Modi is busy tying up with as many parties as he can, wrote AR Jerath. In the largest state Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has appointed members of smaller parties to key posts in public sector enterprises. "In all, eight office-bearers of SBSP have been given posts in various boards and corporations in an order signed off by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Sunday afternoon. Similarly, nine office-bearers of Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal were given such posts as well -- including the party's national treasurer OP Katiyar and former president JL Patel." "'There is a wave of happiness in our party's cadre after this,' Patel said in a statement." People look back at the promises made by Modi in 2014 to win the election with an absolute majority, with a total 282 seats. Some of the promises he made have been kept while others are yet to be implemented. Retail inflation fell to a low of 2.05% in January, the lowest in 19 months. This, despite the enormous taxes on petrol, which earned the government about Rs 11 trillion in last 4 years. The fall in inflation has been due to a deflation in the prices of food articles which has hit earning of farmers very hard. "Compared with the population growth of 14% over the last 10 years, production in pulses, vegetables, fruit, milk, eggs and meat has grown between 40% and 84%," wrote M Nandurkar. Increased productivity in agriculture should be good news, except that it has led to a catastrophic fall in earnings of farmers, leading to unbearable losses. Unemployment has climbed to 7.2% in February 2019 from 5.9% one year back, with millions losing jobs. "Youth inactivity is the highest in India compared to emerging and developing economies and it is about 30 percent," said IMF senior economist J Bluedorn. After a gaffe by BJP strategist Amit Shah in 2014, the opposition delights in accusing Modi of 'jumla', but journalist Rajdeep Sardesai counts 10 reasons why Modi is going to win come 23 May. Modi has been able to set the agenda because Congress President Rahul Gandhi has not spelt out his vision for the nation, wrote A Ganguli. Because the BJP is synonymous with Modi, Gandhi has focused his attacks on him. Modi is going to win. The question is by how much.