Should parents stop parenting?

"Globalization, free trade and liberal democracy are all terms that began sounding hollow once the developed world started feeling the pinch of an economic slowdown. The latest word to join that grouping is 'meritocracy', a portmanteau created to make people believe in some mythical, non-existent value," wrote R Singhal. The college admissions scandal in the US, wherein rich parents paid bribes to get their children into top universities, shows how the rich use their wealth give an unfair advantage to their children. Criminal activity is to be punished but is it wrong to use your wealth to increase your child's knowledge? Bribery is a crime, "But is it less moral to cheat brazenly like that than it is to donate millions to a target university, or to pay tens of thousands of dollars for preparatory private school each year, or to spend thousands of dollars on test-prep tutors, or to ferry your kids from soccer practice to orchestra lessons to bulk up their profiles as college-worthy?" asked I Bogost. A study in Britain showed that wealthy parents create a glass floor under their children by financing unpaid internships and using their networks to get them a better start in life. Difference in parenting depends on how unequal a society is. Parents in the US and UK, with high inequality, spend much more time on their children than parents in Denmark and Sweden, wrote J Anderson. How equal a system is does not depend on ordinary people, but on politicians. If your child is denied admission into a good school because you live a few yards outside the catchment area, then it is an example of "access to 'good' education is largely determined by womb lottery, or where you are born". Parents rent houses in catchment areas of good schools because fees of private schools have become too expensive to afford. The difference in class has an influence right from the birth of a baby in how parents talk to their children. "Among professional families, the average number of words children heard in an hour was twenty-one hundred and fifty; among working class families, it was twelve-hundred and fifty; among welfare families, it was six hundred and twenty," a study showed. Even more basic, children from poorer families have smaller brains than their wealthier peers. So, should richer parents stop feeding or talking to their children? In the coming general election in India every political party has chosen children of politicians as candidates, which keeps power within families. The reason is that people prefer to vote for criminals, a study by political scientist Milan Vaishnav found. Children don't ask to be born. Parenting is a moral obligation.

Will tiering help all nineteen countries?

"For a while now, the Banque de France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau has been pushing the idea of 'tiering' to ease the pain that's been inflicted on commercial banks by negative interest rates," wrote M Ashworth. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced a negative interest rate in 2014, which has been held at -0.40%, till next year. "The ECB slashed its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent" and "core inflation is still below the bank's target." The ECB has been struggling with Italy's budget crisis and Britain's endless struggle to get the Brexit deal ratified by parliament. Italy's budget crisis was averted at the last minute in December. Europe's biggest economy Germany narrowly avoided a recession at the last moment. "At the moment, euro zone lenders are essentially having to pay to park their excess deposits with their central banks, putting a squeeze on profits. Tiering would exempt some of those excess reserves from the lowest rate, thereby lowering the cost to the banks." Prof VA Nageswaran warned against praising ECB President Mario Draghi who is to step down from his post in November this year. His policies have not been successful because "the Eurozone economy is gasping for oxygen. In other words, if a patient fell sick (again) immediately after the medicine was withdrawn, then did the medicine leave the patient better off or did it render him worse off?" "By misjudging the secular decline in potential growth as a secular stagnation or deficient aggregate demand" which required "some redistribution through higher taxation and targeted relief for bottom quintiles of the population", "Draghi's monetary policy is thus part of the problem." There are other lurking dangers. Financial markets have "convinced themselves that collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are much safer instruments than collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, on which they're based and which helped precipitate the 2008 crisis," wrote S Das. CLOs are graded according to risk of default and "banks structuring these packages had to retain a minimum amount of the riskiest securities to ensure they had skin in the game". Since "Borrowers are highly leveraged" there is danger of margin calls in case of default and "Even buyers of high-quality tranches" "face the possibility of mark-to-market writedowns". So, is there a danger to civilisation? The Roman Empire collapsed because of "overexpansion, climatic change, environmental degradation and poor leadership", wrote L Kemp. At present, "Temperature is a clear metric for climate change, GDP is a proxy for complexity and the ecological footprint is an indicator for environmental degradation. Each of them has been trending steeply upwards." Trouble is, each country has different problems, yet the global economy is linked. How do you treat that? 

A race to get Rs 1.6 trillion by tomorrow.

India's current account deficit (CAD) was lower at 2.5% of GDP in the third quarter, ending on 31 December, whereas the fiscal deficit in 11 months to February was 134% of the target set in the budget. "While the net direct tax collection target for 2018-19 is Rs 14.84 trillion, the government has been able to collect only Rs 10.9 trillion till February, leaving a whopping Rs 3.94 trillion to be collected in March." India's trade deficit increased to $145.3 billion in April-December 2018 from$118.4 billion in April-December 2017." While FDI increased to $24.8 billion from $23.9 billion in the same period, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) "recorded a net outflow of$11.9 billion in April-December 2018, against an inflow of $19.8 billion a year ago". Taking trade deficit, FDI and FPI into account, we are down $57.7 billion in April-December 2018, so CAD will probably be higher for the whole year. As on 23 March direct tax collections stood at Rs 10.21 trillion, 85% of budgeted Rs 12 trillion. Member of Central Board of Direct Taxation (Revenue) Neena Kumar has written to tax officials that their assessment depends on meeting targets. Meaning, terrorise taxpayers. Income tax officials have to raise Rs 1.6 trillion this weekend, which is 13% of the year's target, to meet demands of the government. Monday, 1 April is the start of the new financial year. Chartered accountants across the country have appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to stop bullying of taxpayers. As it is, on average taxpayers pay an extra Rs 20,000 every year because they do not invest in tax saving instruments. This is partly because tax savings schemes have a lock in period and people do not have enough money after spending for daily expenses. Also the government keeps changing rules to trap taxpayers, like the unexpected introduction of capital gains tax on equity linked savings schemes, which were introduced to help people save taxes. "Aviation and telecom were the flag bearers of a new India post the reforms of 1991," wrote S Khanna. "A look at the financials of the two sectors reveals deep splashes of red ink on the balance sheets of many of the incumbents saddled with large looming debts." Why when "Demand is robust and growing"? There is GST on air tickets and fuel costs 34% of costs of airlines in India, because of exorbitant taxes, while it is 24.2% on average internationally. At least 12 airlines have collapsed in the last 21 years. "From the outside, everything should be going its way -- strong demand, smart companies, sound fundamentals . But a combination of private sector overconfidence and government intervention means it's just too difficult to make sustained profits here," wrote M Sharma. Telecom companies are gasping under loans of Rs 7 trillion, paid for obtaining licenses and spectrum fees, and because the government has not refunded Rs 300 billion in GST input tax credit. It is simple really -- when a company fails taxes stop. Best to bleed it gently.

Cannot shoot AMRAAMs with A-Sat.

Two days back an anti-satellite (A-Sat) missile developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) destroyed a non-functioning satellite in low orbit, about 300 km above earth. Only three other countries, the US, Russia and China have the same capability. Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally announced the successful test on television. "India's scientists have successfully hit a target in space with an anti-satellite missile. The target was a live satellite which was flying in a low earth orbit. The missile travelled a distance of almost 300 km from earth and hit the target within 3 minutes of its launch," he said. Coming just two weeks before general elections, starting on 11 April, opposition parties were incensed at, what they felt, was blatant violation of the model code of conduct, which comes into effect as soon as the Election Commission declares election dates. "Today's announcement is yet another limitless drama and publicity mongering by Modi desperately trying to reap political benefits at the time of an election. This is gross violation of the model code of conduct." Opposition politicians have themselves to blame. Former chief of DRDO VK Saraswat said that the program was ready in 2013 but the United Progressive Alliance government, formed by a coalition of parties, never gave its permission. "We told the government at that time that we have the capability to demonstrate this, please give your concurrence. The government neither said yes nor said no but never gave any positive response. No reasons were assigned," he said. This A-Sat completely indigenous. "See, this is a completely desi baby, from the missile to its sub-systems, software, sensors and everything has been developed indigenously....," said Chairman of DRDO GS Reddy. " "Number two, given that this is a very high-end technology, a lot of systems and technologies developed for this will be useful for future program." "The missile has technologies developed for ballistic missile defence applications, particularly the kill vehicle." This is a fantastic achievement for our scientists but if it comes to ballistic missiles and satellite warfare we would be under serious attack. The recent air strike on a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp at Balakot in Pakistan was followed by a reprisal attack by Pakistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) "was able to create surprise and local superiority -- technological and numerical -- in a chosen battlefield," wrote journalist S Gupta. "Four Sukhoi-30s, the IAF's most powerful air-superiority aircraft, were involved in the melee at beyond visual range (BVR). They were surprised by the PAF F-16s firing their AMRAAM missiles from so far that their own radar/computer/missiles were not able to give them a 'firing solution'." We were simply outgunned. This is because George Fernandes refused to allow the IAF to buy Mirage-2000s Dassault was will to make in India. A-Sat is an achievement, but let us first improve the basics.

When everyone can see the deception what use is it?

Earlier this month China blocked the UN Security Council from listing Masood Azhar as a global terrorist for the fourth time. "Chinese strategies are based on learnings gleaned from thousands of years of history," wrote S Deb. "The most celebrated victories in Chinese history are not based on valour, but on deception." "For example, use Pakistan to keep India distracted." Using deception of being a friend of the West "China would borrow the techniques from the West to develop (its finance sector and industry) -- all with the active tutoring from institutions such as the World Bank and private firms such as Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, the government, when it wasn't looking the other way, actively sanctioned and encouraged audacious programs to steal technology and Western intellectual property," wrote M Pillsbury. With government connivance "80% of the world's counterfeits -- estimated to be a $1.8 trillion industry -- are produced in China". Some in the US have woken up to the dangers posed by China. The Committee on Present Danger (CPD) which "was first established in the early 1950s as a bulwark against the influence of communism in the US" has been revived by a "group of Washington policy advisers and former US government officials including Steve Bannon". "China's arsenal for global supremacy includes economic, informational, political and military warfare," said J Fanell. To which the Chinese replied with their usual bromide, "We hope some people in the United States view China's development in proper perspective, stop groundless accusations and defamation against China..." Not just theory. US Marines are practicing how to seize small islands using precision-guided munitions and Stealth fighters, based on experience gained during World War II. This is to prepare for China's aggression in the Pacific. A war between the US and China could be catastrophic, a much better option is to tighten the noose around the Chinese economy. China and the US are engaged in talks to avert a full fledged trade war after both countries levied tariffs on imports from each other. The judiciary in China is merely an arm of the Communist Party and so whatever deal it may sign trade with China is never going to be fair. A rise in payday loans at astronomical interest rates maybe a sign that people are beginning to feel the effects of a slowing economy, even though people are still optimistic about the future. Trump has total support of Chinese dissidents living in the US. To get round the censorship of the Great Firewall, young people in China are creating 'hot words' which express their feelings about the state. To control every person China is developing a social credit system which will reward or punish people according to their subservience to the Party. As internal and external pressures build China will implode. India has to patiently guard its borders till then.

It maybe called 'justice', but will people agree?

"With voting for the 2019 general elections barely two weeks away, we are entering a dangerous period where politicians will promise the voter anything to get elected," wrote R Jagannathan. On 25 March, Mr Rahul Gandhi promised Rs 72,000 per year to 50 million poorest households in India, at a cost of Rs 3.6 trillion or about 1.7% of projected GDP of Rs 210 trillion in 2019-20. The acronym for the scheme, NYAY, means 'justice'. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley dismissed Gandhi's announcement as "complete eyewash", saying, "If all welfare schemes, including MNREGA, Ayushman Bharat, fertiliser subsidy, are added, the government would be spending Rs 7.8 lakh crore (trillion)....the beneficiary is already getting larger sum but they are just coming from eight different cheques." Confession indeed. We do not know if he has counted all 18 schemes launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he came to power, or the new scheme of Rs 6,000 per year to farmers possessing less than 2 hectares of land, which constitute 86.21% of all landholdings. "Rs 72,000 will be provided to 5 crore (50 million) of the poorest families of the country. This is not a top-up scheme as all 20% families will be given Rs 72,000 per year," explained Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala. This scheme will not eradicate poverty because what the country needs are productive jobs that pay living wages, wrote M Sabharwal. "We were engaged in this work for six months. Take the list of all big economists of the world, we consulted them....Raghuram Rajan....one by one," Gandhi hit back. A survey by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) showed that the labor force participation rate (LFPR) "which measures the proportion of population aged 15-64 that is currently employed or seeking employment, fell to 49.8% in 2017-18 from 55.9% in 2011-12, when the NSSO last carried out the same study". The LFPR for women has dropped from 42.7% in 2004-05 to a dismal 23.3% last year, compared to 79.9% in Nepal and 57.4% in Bangladesh. If politicians have courage NYAY "could be redemptive, not just for the poor but for the entire nation. Minus the needed courage, the policy would be a disastrous folly", wrote TK Arun. Why the need for courage? Because, those who avail of this scheme should be asked to pay for their electricity and buy food at market price. That will help farmers and reduce subsidy bills on minimum support price and MNREGA. How will the 50 million households be selected? Those left out will surely be enraged. What if a man has 4 wives and 5 children from each wife? Is that one household or four? The scheme maybe called 'justice' but a lot of people may see this as grave injustice. However, by then elections will be over. 

End the real collusion, the 'special relationship'.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who was charged with finding out if Donald Trump campaign team colluded with Russians to influence the presidential election in 2016, has submitted his report. "For much of the past 22 months, Democrats waited with bated breath to see what special counsel Robert Mueller had found out about Russian collusion in the 2016 election" but those hopes have been dashed. The problem for the Democrats is to decide whether to continue to harass Trump with investigations into his business, his taxes and his family, or to fight next year's elections on policies. Though most Americans want the full report to be released, the majority of people said that they are not going to change their opinions of Trump, whether for or against. Presumably, most people do not think it is important for their lives. Trump has been claiming that the whole investigation was a witch-hunt and is feeling vindicated. The Republicans tried to impeach Bill Clinton over his lies about his affair with Monica Lewinsky but, "Despite his perjury and lies, President Clinton left office in 2000 with incredibly high approval ratings." Trump hinted that he would like to investigate those who instigated the investigation with false allegations. The good thing is that the Mueller investigation actually made a profit by catching tax cheats who were then made to pay. Attorney General Bill Barr sent a 4 page summary of Mueller's report to Congress quoting that the investigation found no evidence of any collusion between Trump's campaign team and Russians, "despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign". Barr is unable to release the full report because of rules surrounding evidence obtained through a grand jury but Democrats are incensed and want to question him personally. Now that the Russia question has been settled, perhaps it is time to investigate real interference by one country -- and that is Britain. Allegations of Russian interference and of parties with prostitutes in Moscow were made by an ex-MI6 agent Christopher Steele, and picked up by the FBI. This could not have been possible without permission from the British government which takes pride in its 'special relationship' with Washington. In 1962, then Secretary of State Dean Acheson said in a speech, "Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role, which incensed the British." British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan believed that "we are the Greeks to their Romans", meaning that the British are the thinkers while the Americans are mere foot soldiers. Margaret Thatcher pushed George HW Bush to start the first Gulf War, saying it is "no time to go wobbly". Cameron pushed Obama to attack Libya, resulting in Gaddafi's death and the present refugee crisis in Europe. Trump should order an investigation into British interference in US politics and end the 'special relationship' now. Fourth of July is not just for barbecues.

If it has worked since 1959, why change it?

"A smug, entitled business class driven by greed and hubris, but sorely lacking in resources to legitmize their control. I could be describing the India Inc. of today -- or 1959. Nothing much has changed," wrote A Mukherjee. "Jet Airways Ltd., India's oldest surviving private-sector airline, is about to crash land. Founder Naresh Goyal neither brought in enough new equity of his own to rescue the debt-laden carrier, nor did he allow a timely sale to suitors who wanted the business, albeit without him" In the 1960s companies were controlled by agencies, pejoratively known as 'boxwallahs'. "They were vehicles for business families to extract commissions and control empires in the garb of providing managerial expertise." "India eventually outlawed managing agencies in 1969, but entrenched families lost no time in gaming the corporate boards that were now in charge." Today they are called 'promoters'. "India's government has asked state-run banks to rescue privately held Jet Airways without pushing it into bankruptcy, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to avert thousand of job losses weeks before a general election, two people within the administration told Reuters." Public sector banks, led by the State Bank of India (SBI), are looking to take control of Jet Airways, by converting debt into equity, and keep it operating. Etihad Airways, which holds a 24% stake in Jet, has refused to inject anymore funds into the airline and wants to exit altogether. Jet has debts of nearly Rs 100 billion and if banks buy out Etihad's stake as well they will be left holding more than 60% of the airline. With the collapse of Jet, one million seats have disappeared, leading to a 35% increase in domestic fares and 50-100% increase on the Delhi-Mumbai route. Despite having a buyer with financial resources, promoters of Essar Steel "have used every trick in the book to ensure their prized asset stays in the family, despite owing financial creditors Rs 508 billion ($6.2 billion) in unpaid dues". The Ruias have not paid $1.5 awarded by an arbitration court in the US, pleading a lack of assets. Generic version of Lipitor from India have been found to have 60% more side effects than one made by a Canadian company. This is because of the local practice of 'jugaad', which means 'improvisation at low cost'. "But the word can have a darker connotation: Get it done at all costs." Non-banking finance company IL&FS obtained finance from central and state governments by employing "serving and retired bureaucrats and also distributed largesse such as jobs for their children". IL&FS staff were held hostage for four months by disgruntled employees in Ethiopia, demanding payment of their wages. In 2013, Winsome Diamond company destroyed all records before defaulting on its loans. Its promoter Jatin Mehta  is somewhere abroad. Crony capitalism: Why change a winning strategy?

Only stars can predict the outcome.

Election fever is in full swing across India and opinion polls predict anything from an outright victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP to a hung parliament. In January, polls were giving a higher share of seats to the opposition, led by the Congress, but the air strikes on a Jaish e-Mohammed training camp at Balakot inside Pakistan on 26 February may have swung the balance in Modi's favor. Naturally, Modi's approval rating increased sharply after the air strike but will people remember it till elections start on 11 April, or will factors such as the price of vegetables and caste divisions become more important? Some politicians have questioned whether the air strike actually took place and a couple of days back, an adviser to Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Sam Pitroda said, "If you say that 300 people were killed, I need to know that. We all need to know that, people of India need to know that and then comes global media which says nobody was killed. I look bad as an Indian citizen." The international media did claim that the attack did not happen, that there was no training camp at Balakot and that satellite images showed that the bombs missed their target and damaged local trees. In a sarcastic move Pakistan filed a police case against Indian Air Force pilots for destroying 19 trees. By questioning the attack the opposition is helping to keep public attention on the air strike, allowing the BJP to claim the high moral ground and question their patriotism. Stupid tactic. Modi is an expert at turning tables on his opponents. In the last elections in 2014, he marketed himself as a 'chaiwallah', a humble tea seller, one of the millions of poor labor. This time he has morphed into a 'chowkidar', a guard who is protecting the nation against the corrupt opposition. As elections draw nearer will the people, especially in rural areas, worry about the actual rate of growth of India's GDP, the vicious attack on our privacy through Aadhaar or the tight noose around journalists who are terrified of questioning the government? At 2.57% in February retail inflation is well within the Reserve Bank's (RBI) comfort level of 2-4%. Wholesale prices rose by 2.91% in February but a RBI survey showed that households think that inflation is 8-9%. It maybe that the people's daily purchases are different to the RBI's basket of goods. It does not matter to people that car sales fell by 8.25% in February, but they will be unhappy if petrol prices rise even higher, which is why the government is not allowing oil companies to raise prices. Modi must win these elections to stay relevant or else there are others waiting in the wings. In the privacy of the voting booth what will voters be thinking of? Astrologers are in great demand.

The Heights for survival.

"The United States will now recognize the Golan Heights as part of Israel -- a massive change in American foreign policy that will likely benefit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," wrote A Ward. "Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in the closing stages of the 1967 Six-Day war." The raised plateau enables Israel to monitor Syrian territory, thus preventing a surprise attack. "The area provides a third of Israel's water supply" and has the only ski resort in Israel. In 2017, President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and in 2018 the US moved its embassy to the city. The status of Jerusalem was the main sticking point in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians who want the city to be the capital of an independent Palestine. Guatemala recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel followed by Australia in 2018. The Golan Heights have become even more important now that Bashar al-Assad has won the civil war with the help of Russia and Israel's sworn enemy Iran and its ally Hezbollah. In January, the deputy head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Big Gen Hossain Salami said, "Our strategy is to erase Israel from the global political map." "The Israelis will not have even a cemetery in Palestine to bury their own corpses." In January Israeli planes bombed Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, after rockets were fired towards the Golan Heights. In December, Israel hit Hezbollah commanders as they were about to board a flight to Iran and also bombed Iranian munition stores. Israelis are excavating tunnels dug by the Hezbollah from Lebanon into Israel. In 2006, Israel attacked Hezbollah forces in Lebanon after it ambushed two Isreali Humvees, killed three Israeli soldiers, injured two and abducted two others. Ghassan Eid, a Christian, proudly said, "The villages were riddled with tunnels. Hezbollah emerged from under the earth and attacked Israeli tanks, pushing them out of our country." At the time of the Lebanon war Hezbollah possessed 15,000 rockets, of which it fired 4,000 into Israel. "Hezbollah has since expanded its rocket force, today estimated at 130,000 rounds." In 2016, Iran test fired two ballistic missiles with the words "Israel must be wiped out" written on their sides. "The 2,000-kilometer range of our missiles is to confront the Zionist regime," said Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Iranian success in Syria and its increasing arsenal of missiles is pushing Israel and Saudi Arabia to increase friendly contacts between each other, wrote Prof M Ayoob. With Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah fighter right on its borders Israel can never give up its control of the Golan Heights. Trump just recognized that.

Central banks predict lower growth, markets love it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 216.84 points yesterday, followed by the Bombay Stock Exchange Index the Sensex rising by about 60 points this morning. After falling to 71.76 to the dollar in February the rupee has strengthened to around 68.64 this morning. In January, experts were predicting that the rupee will fall to 75 to the dollar this year on higher crude oil prices, uncertainty on Brexit and continued tightening by the Federal Reserve in the US. Cuts in oil output by OPEC, and a fall in US import of oil from Iran and Venezuela has led to crude oil prices rising by almost a third this year. The US government predicts that Brent crude will average $63 per barrel in 2019, which should be comfortable. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) "have been buying heavily in cash and derivatives  markets" in India. They have bought Rs 270 billion worth of local stocks this month. Goldman Sachs has changed its stance to 'overweight' on the Indian market, which means it is recommending buying Indian stocks. It predicts that the National Stock Exchange index the Nifty will increase to 12,500 from around 11,500 at present. Why the euphoria in stock markets? Because, at a two day meeting this week, the Federal Reserve said that interest rate will not be raised this year. "The Fed also said that it will slow the monthly reduction of US Treasury bonds from $30 billion to $15 billion from May onwards ending in September." Fund managers are now sure that there will be excess liquidity in the US and so they are investing in shares to increase returns for their investors. Strangely, the reason for the Fed's decision is that it is predicting a slowdown in the US economy, which should be bad news. The OECD has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2019, worse in Europe and the US, but also in emerging markets, including India. Unemployment is rising in India. Industrial output is not growing, capital spending is not expected to pick up and retail inflation is well within the limits set for the Reserve Bank (RBI), all of which indicate that the RBI should reduce interest rate, wrote Iyre and Jethmalani. Retail sales of cars and two-wheelers fell by 8% in February. About 9 million women lost their jobs last year and the male workforce shrank from 304 million in 2011-12 to 286 million in 2017-18. The government has stopped estimating the level of poverty in the country because there has been no reduction, wrote Prof Himanshu. And yet, optimism about finding jobs is rising among young people between 19 and 29 years of age. So, who is right? Central banks, which predict a lower growth, or the stock markets, which are celebrating?  

It is not the money, it is what you do with it.

As the US gears up for presidential election in 2020, politicians in the Democratic Party are demanding higher taxes on the rich. "In the 1990s Democratic Party made friends with the rich. The 2008 Democratic Party was eager to bail them out. The 2019 Democratic Party seems ready to declare war," wrote D Matthews. "Rep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) floated a big increase in top marginal income tax rates in an interview on 60 minutes. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) proposed an annual wealth tax. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) proposed a drastic hike in estate tax." Till 1963, "the top income tax rate was 91 percent". In India, Indira Gandhi raised the top rate of income tax to 98.75% on income above Rs 200,000. Democratic presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson reduced the top rate to 70% and in 1986 a bipartisan Congress cut it down to 28%. Today, the top rate of income tax is 37% in the US. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett claimed to pay a lower rate of tax than his secretary. In the 2012 presidential election, Republican candidate Mitt Romney paid $3 million in taxes on an income of $21.7 million, at an effective rate of 13.9%. But, according to C Kadlec, Romney's tax rate was about 30% because of corporate tax on dividends and capital gains on which Romney had to pay income tax, thus leading to double taxation. Saez and Diamond proposed 73% as the optimal top rate of income tax. Sanders and Warren are known to be socialists. "The standard attack on socialism implies that only one variant exists: state ownership of productive assets with centralised control over resource allocation," wrote C Satterlee. "The standard line on historical experience draws attention to the flagrant human rights abuses that occurred, and still occur, under socialist regimes" but "it implies socialists have learnt nothing over the last 100 years". Have they? Decades of socialism has collapsed the Venezuelan economy but President Nicolas Maduro has ordered his army to shoot to prevent foreign aid from entering his country. In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega has ordered police to beat up journalists writing against his third term in office by changing the constitution. Every society in the world is pyramidal in nature. In 2018, there were 618 billionaires in the US in a population of 300 million, 44% of whom paid no federal income tax in 2018. Politicians cannot win without pleasing these voters and these voters will only vote for those who promise subsidies. But is there any guarantee that politicians will use increased revenues from higher taxes on the people instead of on more lethal weapons? Voluntary philanthropy by billionaires targets those suffering genuine hardship. Whether politicians or billionaires, those who are good will do good. And vice versa.

Having more dollars cannot hurt.

In a surprising move the "RBI will buy $5 billion from banks for its reserves by giving them rupees, and reverse the trade in 2022," wrote A Mukherjee. This is different from the "Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) traditional management of longer-term liquidity in the banking system: by buying and selling government bonds". The RBI wants to prevent the rupee from becoming too strong as foreign investors buy Indian assets with dollars. It wants to provide funds for non-bank financiers to prevent shadow lenders from turning off "the tap for builders amid a glut of unsold apartments" and to spur "demand for lacklustre government bonds". This may not be a one-off action but maybe part of a series. "In fact, analyst's estimate that there's room for at least $12 billion of flows if banks decide to raise capital." By this unconventional monetary policy the RBI is infusing liquidity into non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) without monetising government debt. Banks are unwilling to reduce lending rates despite a reduction in policy rates by the RBI. This is partly because banks are still struggling with bad loans although the worst maybe over, according to the RBI. Even so, the number of willful defaults are still rising in public sector banks. Despite a rise in real rates, due to fall in retail inflation, deposit growth in banks is falling, wrote A Iyer. "Average Indians don't sit and look for real returns. What they see is nominal deposit rates and this has fallen sharply." Banks are having to pay higher interest on term deposits to attract ordinary savers and so cannot reduce lending rates. Shadow lenders are refusing to accept shares as security for lending money. The amount of money promoters can borrow by pledging their shares is lower than the market value of the shares pledged and if the price falls then lenders sell off shares to protect their capital. In recent weeks certain companies have seen selling of pledged shares by lenders, which further lowered market capitalization of the companies. Mutual funds have also been exposed to severe falls in values of pledged shares, hitting retail investors. Buying dollars increases forex reserves of RBI which may come in handy if there is a sudden outflow because of a reduction in the weight of the Indian market in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Another cause for concern is that the dollar-rupee trade has shot up in off-shore markets. Dollar-rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) in London "soared to $23 billion in October 2018, while the market in New York is $4.5 billion daily. If foreigners are controlling the exchange rate of the rupee it makes sense to increase dollar reserves of the RBI. The RBI should reduce the Cash Reserve Ratio and the Statutory Liquidity Ratio to free up large sums of money for banks to lend, suggested an editorial in the Mint. If banks buy fewer government bonds yields, already at around 7.4, could rise even higher. Buying dollars is perhaps the safest bet.

What if no choice is the correct choice?

With general election scheduled to begin on 11 April, M Joseph asked, "Voting is consecrated in our age, but is voting a moral act?" "If we look at the history of Indian elections, we see that the reasons why most Indians voted are these: They had accepted bribes in the form of money and liquor to vote for dangerous men; they voted for corrupt men because such characters seemed capable and street smart; they also voted for the supremacy of their caste and they voted to harm or restrain other communities or religions." "Generally, Indians voted for murderers, rapists and thieves, for the type of men who have to be herded in buses and hidden in resorts by their handlers to keep them form being bought like horses by rival political parties." There is the option of voting for 'None of the Above' (NOTA). In the recent assembly elections in Prime Minister Modi's home state of Gujarat the number of NOTA votes were higher than the margin of victory in 24 constituencies. In Rajasthan NOTA votes were higher than the margin of victory in 15 constituencies. However, the share of NOTA votes have declined in the states which went to polls in December, compared to the elections of 2013. What would have worried politicians was that NOTA received 552,000 votes in Gujarat, compared to a total of 207,000 votes received by Ms Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. However, the surprise is that more people do not vote for NOTA when the last Lok Sabha spent 1,616 hours on legislative business, less than half the 3,784 hours spent by the first Lok Sabha. The good thing is that members actually spent time on discussing various bills, but 100% of grants were passed without any discussion. No member wanted to be seen to be opposing handouts. "The independence and credibility of our (admittedly imperfect) state institutions have never been so thoroughly in doubt since the Emergency," wrote Prof T Khaitan. "Characterised as the fourth branch of the state -- because of their distinctiveness from the executive, legislature and judiciary -- these institutions are tasked with the protection of key constitutional values such as democracy, legality, impartiality, probity, human rights and price stability." Politicians have no interest in powerful institutions which can hold them to account. The independence and powers of the Special Counsel Robert Mueller in the US, which even President Trump cannot override, must fill them with terror. Hence, elections have been reduced to slogans which have been remarkably successful in the past, wrote S Shekhar, and party manifestos are a list of promises which politicians cannot, or have no intention of keeping, wrote R Singhal. Voting is to exercise a choice. What if the choice is no choice?

The economics of loneliness.

"If Millennials are different, it's not because we're more or less evolved than our parents or grandparents, it's because they have changed the world that have produced people like us," said Millennial Malcolm Harris. So, "What made millennials the way they are? Why are they so burned out? Why are they having fewer kids? Why are they getting married later?" Harris says that millennials are suffering a "crisis of extreme capitalism" because "wages are stagnant and exploitation is up, competition among workers is up too". In his book, 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', Prof Thomas Piketty argued that returns on capital are far higher than economic growth, leading to concentration of capital in the hands of some people which is why inequality is increasing. Between 1948 and 2017, productivity has increased by 246.3% while hourly compensation has increased by 114.7%. Other economists have disagreed with Piketty's theory. Prof M Rognlie said that inequality was due to the sharp increase in the value of certain scarce commodities, such as land, while others put it down to the low cost of capital. Following the subprime crisis of 2008 the Federal Reserve reduced cost of borrowing to zero making capital extremely cheap. With no earnings from fixed income instruments money was diverted to shares, leading to enormous rises in stock prices and enormous returns on capital. The biggest indictment of capitalism is in price gouging of consumers. It is shocking that a vial of insulin in the US costs $300, while the same type of insulin will cost around Rs 300 in India for a vial of 300 units. This makes insulin 70 times more expensive in the US, when recombinant insulin was first introduced around 1980, at the time of birth of millennials. Harris is wrong in thinking that millennials are no different from their parents or grandparents. Their grandparents will have endured two world wars and the Great Depression, while most of their parents will have gone through the horrors of World War II which was followed by a period of reconstruction resulting in fast economic growth in the US and Europe. The GI bill which provided loans at low interest to buy homes and farms and helped with higher education resulted in increasing prosperity and a baby boom. But, could the baby boom be the reason for economic growth? Canadian economist, Clarence Barber "observed that during the 1920s, in the years preceding the 1929 crash, the rate of population growth had fallen by approximately a third in western and northern Europe and by half in the US", wrote Prof S Mihm. Millennials are a lonely generation, aggravated by the internet, wrote C Beaton. Harris thinks that a revolution is necessary to reduce exploitation of capitalism. Perhaps, all they need is a revolution of dating. And mating. 

Though dead for 55 years Nehru is part of these elections.

"A splinter group of the Janata Party that split in 1980, the BJP was formed to resurrect the Bharatiya Jana Sangh which had merged in Janata Party in 1977. In 1984 when the Congress won 415 seats, the BJP bagged just 2. Three decades later in 2014, the fortunes reversed. The BJP rose from 2 to 282 while the Congress was reduced from 415 to mere 44." One reason is that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a very good speaker. Naturally, to please a crowd, Modi has a basic formula for speeches which gets the audience involved. Modi has a great knack for devising acronyms to label his schemes or to denounce his opponents and "there is a clear sense with PM Modi of him instinctively drawing on this skill, less for himself, but to help his audience to remember his words." Some acronyms, like 'radar' which stands for 'radio detection and ranging', have become so familiar that most people would not know its full form. Modi described the Congress as OROP, which meant Only Rahul and Priyanka, which was answered with ODOMOS by the Congress, meaning Overdose of Only Modi, Only Shah. The BJP also attacks India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, whose descendant, Rahul Gandhi is the President of the Congress. Both Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi and grandson Rajiv Gandhi were assassinated, so bad-mouthing them maybe considered bad form and may backfire. Shashi Tharoor, who was once Under Secretary General at the United Nations, explained that the Security Council seat was not Nehru's to give. Nehru became prime minister after more than a thousand years of occupation by foreign invaders, first by the Muslims and then by the British. Economist Utsa Patnaik has calculated that the British looted $45 trillion from India over about 200 years, leaving the country impoverished and bankrupt. Nehru created the nation of India and established many institutions which function to this day. Perhaps, Nehru's greatest achievement was that, while Pakistan, which became independent at the same time, was soon taken over by its army which still controls all power, India remains a democracy to this day. Journalist R Sardesai enumerated 10 reasons why these elections are Modi's to lose. However, for all his bombast, Modi is not all that different from the Congress, relying on a rash of handouts, from Rs 6,000 in cash to farmers to free gas and electricity connections for the rural poor to Mudra loans to young people to start businesses, resulting in non-performing assets at banks amounting to Rs 73 billion. These have been partly financed by enormous taxes on petroleum products, taking advantage of low prices of crude oil. That is why Modi is having to trash Nehru who died 55 years ago, in 1964. Nehru remains silent. His actions speak for him.

India has to cope with an alliance of Iron Brothers.

"Not since Mao Zedong has China been in the grip of one man as it is today with Xi Jinping," wrote S Deb. "After all, there are over 22 million CCTVs already operating across the country with the world's most advanced face-recognition software, every social media post is being monitored, thousands of human rights activists and political dissidents are in prison or have disappeared, and a social credit system is set to be rolled out countrywide next year to create a nation of no-free-will zombies." Xi Jinping assumed total command over the Peoples' Liberation Army. He was elevated to the status of 'core leader' which makes him equal to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. At the same time, he is revered as 'Mighty Uncle Xi', a title given to emperors in the past. Xi has made himself chief of every important institution, collecting at least a dozen titles along the way. Fourteen thoughts of his have been incorporated in the Chinese Constitution, somewhat like Mao's Little Red Book. There is even a course on the thoughts of Xi and a certificate is provided for a fee of $49. What has all this to do with us in India? As a member of the UN Security Council, China repeatedly blocks attempts at identifying Masood Azhar as a terrorist, despite Azhar masterminding numerous terrorist attacks on Indian soil. China wants to protect its investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in which it has invested billions of dollars. It wants to protect its 'Iron Brother' Pakistan from sanctions which maybe levied if it is seen to be assisting terrorism. China has imprisoned over 1 million Muslim Uighurs in internment camps to indoctrinate them in its Communist ideology and does not want to be targeted by terrorists. However, dissent maybe brewing. In 1996, "48,121 labour disputes were accepted for arbitration", by 2015, "the number of cases had risen 17 times to 813,859". "But the most significant case was perhaps that of Jasic Technology Co Ltd in Shenzhen, where, in August 2018 hundreds of students from more than a dozen prestigious universities (supported by tens of thousands of students across the country) turned up to show solidarity with workers protesting non-payment of social security benefits, and trying to establish an independent trade union." Xi Jinping's support of state-owned industries over private enterprises is not going to help its economic slowdown, wrote D Fickling. In 2012, the private sector received 52% of bank loans while the state-owned enterprises got 32%, but by 2016, the state-owned companies got 80% of bank loans, while private companies received just 11%. China threatens its neighbors with its military power, wrote Prof B Chellaney, and now the US under Trump is refusing to accept its deceptions on trade. A crisis takes a long time to develop but can precipitate suddenly, just as the sub-prime crisis was precipitated by the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers. A collapse of China will be great for the world and fantastic for India. We wait.

Bhakts cannot give the true picture.

It is impossible to judge the economic performance of the BJP government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi because, "Not only are many official numbers under a cloud, over the past couple of years, a small-scale industry fuelled by WhatsApp forwards has built up a narrative around India's growth story," wrote V Kaul. This is because of an army of 'bhakts', meaning 'devotees' who are unwilling to accept any negative about Modi and are willing to accept a declaration of Emergency, giving total powers to Modi.  Modi does not tolerate any questioning or criticism of his actions and accused the opposition of reaching an agreement with Pakistan to remove him from power. "It upsets me that certain people living in the country speak the language of Pakistan. These are the people who went to Pakistan and said 'do anything, but remove Modi from power..." A claim repeated by one of his ministers who blamed the Congress. N Datta compiled a glossary of words used by Modi bhakts to show their support and abuse opponents. The government also has a record of suppressing data it does not like or of blatantly massaging figures to give a favorable appearance of its record. "In fact, any statistics that cast an iota of doubt on the achievement of the government seem to get revised or suppressed on the basis of some questionable methodology," said a letter written by 108 economists. Several myths have been spread by bhakts on WhatsApp, namely the Indian economy is growing faster than China's and that ours is the sixth largest economy in the world. "India's GDP in 2017 was $2.63 trillion. China had a similar GDP of $2.64 trillion back in 2002." But, China grew by 8.49%, 8.34% and 9.13% in 2000, 2001 and 2002, "and between 2003 and 2007, the country saw a rate of economic growth greater that 10%". In 2017, China's economy grew by 6.9% adding $650 billion to its GDP, while the Indian economy grew by 6.68% in the same year, adding a paltry $16 billion to GDP. The UK has a GDP of $2.81 trillion with a population of 66 million, while our economy is $2.63 trillion with a population of 1,340 million, which means that India is at 147 in the world on GDP per capita. The government released a back series data on the GDP which shows that growth during its tenure is much higher than during the previous Congress-led government. That has been questioned by economists. The government suppressed the jobs data showing rising unemployment, causing the the Chairman of the National Statistical Commission PC Mohanan to resign. Bhakts on WhatsApp can surely intimidate people. But, can they win the election for Modi? Or will angry people vote against? Answer in a couple of months.

Are megalomaniac singles better than looting families?

As Indians prepare to choose the next government, R Sharma pointed out that in a country that "orchestrates 10 million weddings a year, it is remarkable that the 2019 election battle will be decided largely by single leaders". "Modi has of course built his career on ridiculing the rival Congress and its reigning dynasty" and "yet the Gandhis are now headed by Rahul" who "is still unmarried". When asked who should be the next prime minister "Modi, Rahul, Mamata, and Mayawati top the list". All are single. Why do people prefer singles? Because there is no public funding of elections, "The more cash flows under the table, the more gets diverted into private pockets, stoking public disgust." So lucrative is an elections victory that there are expected to be "10,000 candidates for 545 seats, and more than 500 political parties in the fray", wrote A Ranade. Of all the members of the Lok Sabha, 82% "have declared wealth of more than Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million)".  How clean are the single politicians? Ms Mayawati has accumulated enormous wealth, apparently given by her followers out of love. Even her brother has increased his wealth to Rs 13.16 billion. In 2011, Wikileaks reported that she sent a private jet to Mumbai to bring a pair sandals she had left behind. Mamata Banerjee makes a virtue of her apparent lack of wealth, "still living in her ancestral home in the Kolkata neighborhood of Kalighat, its dilapidated roof and rotting bamboo beams offering public testimony to the money not spent on renovations". However, she "has built a political organisation that replicates the old Communist penetration of every locality and every institution in the state", wrote S Dasgupta. "Some 50 BJP activists have been killed in political violence in last summer's violent Panchayat polls in which some 30 percent of the seats were won by the TMC without contest". TMC is Banerjee's party. What about Prime Minister Modi? Just like others before him, Modi is accused of using the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to harass opposition politicians. When CBI officials went to question Kolkata Police Commissioner Rajeev Kumar regarding a chit fund scam, local police arrested them and questioned them for 2 hours. Banerjee came to power through street protests, using "a rapacious army of violent, poorly educated and extortionist youngsters. They had no patience for job-creating factories to grow; instead they'd force the factory manager to buy from them inferior construction material, at twice the market price," wrote S Mitra. Modi is despised in Tamil Nadu. The BJP has allied with AIADMK, the party of Jayalalithaa, but the CBI has raided houses of its chief secretary and also the director general of the police to show its power through intimidation. Rahul Gandhi has no new idea except the old Congress policy of more handouts. Looting families or megalomaniac singles, not a very good choice, is it?

If health is wealth, then wealth leads to health.

The Japanese are the healthiest old people in the world, reaching an age of 76.1 years before suffering health problems that should affect someone who is 65 years old, a study has shown. By contrast, in Papua New Guinea people contract age related problems at the age of 45.6 years. Indians get similar problems at the age of 59.6 years. Obesity, leading to Type 2 diabetes and hypertension, is a leading cause of early death. As lifestyles change in India the incidence of diabetes is also rising. Indians are more prone to diabetes than western populations because even lean people with BMI below 19 have a  higher fat content in viscera. What do people die of? Cardiovascular diseases cause 32.3% of deaths in the world, followed by cancer at 16.3%. In 2017, diarrhoea killed 1.6 million people, children being the most vulnerable. Traffic accidents and suicides are the leading causes of death in young people. India has the highest number of deaths due to diarrhoea and pneumonia among children, in the world, maybe because of our huge population. A report by Global Nutrition found that 46.6 million children in India are stunted, meaning they are malnourished, 25.5 million children are wasted. Naturally, these children are more susceptible to infectious diseases because of low immunity. "In 1900, the three leading causes of death were pneumonia, tuberculosis (TB), and diarrhea and enteritis, which (together with diphtheria) caused one-third of all deaths," wrote the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the US. The incidence of these diseases have fallen due to "prevention activities, including sewage disposal, water treatment, food safety, organized solid waste disposal, and public education about hygienic practices (e.g. food handling and hand washing)." These, along with "strategic vaccination campaigns", have almost eradicated communicable diseases in the US. Life expectancy figures published by Niti Aayog, a government institution, shows that the average lifespan in Kerala is 10 years more than that in Uttar Pradesh, women living longer than men in all the states. These figures are for children who are allowed to be born and do not account for all the girls who are killed before birth, through abortion. The ratio of girls to boys is falling even in southern states, except in Kerala. India also has high rates of suicide, but what is really troubling is that rates of suicide are higher among the young and almost equal between men and women. That coincides with our high misery index due to poor economic conditions and little hope for the future. Perhaps, deaths of children and suicides will decrease if India becomes wealthier. Who knows how long that will take.

Modi will win. By what margin?

Dates for the general election in India have been announced and political parties are expected to follow a 'Model Code of Conduct'. However, there is no restriction on what inducements will be on offer to entice voters to cast their ballots for any particular party. Politicians have promised cash handouts for farmers, reservations for more sections of the population and are tying up with as many smaller parties as they can. After denouncing opposition attempts at building a coalition of parties as 'grand adulteration', Prime Minister Narendra Modi is busy tying up with as many parties as he can, wrote AR Jerath. In the largest state Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has appointed members of smaller parties to key posts in public sector enterprises. "In all, eight office-bearers of SBSP have been given posts in various boards and corporations in an order signed off by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Sunday afternoon. Similarly, nine office-bearers of Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal were given such posts as well -- including the party's national treasurer OP Katiyar and former president JL Patel." "'There is a wave of happiness in our party's cadre after this,' Patel said in a statement." People look back at the promises made by Modi in 2014 to win the election with an absolute majority, with a total 282 seats. Some of the promises he made have been kept while others are yet to be implemented. Retail inflation fell to a low of 2.05% in January, the lowest in 19 months. This, despite the enormous taxes on petrol, which earned the government about Rs 11 trillion in last 4 years. The fall in inflation has been due to a deflation in the prices of food articles which has hit earning of farmers very hard. "Compared with the population growth of 14% over the last 10 years, production in pulses, vegetables, fruit, milk, eggs and meat has grown between 40% and 84%," wrote M Nandurkar. Increased productivity in agriculture should be good news, except that it has led to a catastrophic fall in earnings of farmers, leading to unbearable losses. Unemployment has climbed to 7.2% in February 2019 from 5.9% one year back, with millions losing jobs. "Youth inactivity is the highest in India compared to emerging and developing economies and it is about 30 percent," said IMF senior economist J Bluedorn. After a gaffe by BJP strategist Amit Shah in 2014, the opposition delights in accusing Modi of 'jumla', but journalist Rajdeep Sardesai counts 10 reasons why Modi is going to win come 23 May. Modi has been able to set the agenda because Congress President Rahul Gandhi has not spelt out his vision for the nation, wrote A Ganguli. Because the BJP is synonymous with Modi, Gandhi has focused his attacks on him. Modi is going to win. The question is by how much.

Elections in India: the greatest show on earth.

At last, the Election Commission of India announced dates for the general election which will start on 11 April. Votes will be counted on 23 May. The announcement was made on the last possible day, allowing the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to announce a large number of handouts, including new power projects in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which elect 120 Members of Parliament between them, 50 new government schools and a new train line between Odisha and West Bengal. Dates for election in Modi's home state of Gujarat in 2017 was also delayed apparently to allow for relief of flood victims. Modi's party the BJP won the election with 99 seats, a decrease of 16 seats, while the Congress increased its share to 77 from 61 seats in 2012. With the announcement of election dates 'the model code of conduct' comes into effect. This restricts the ruling party from using taxpayer money for advertising, for campaigning while traveling on official business and for announcing handouts. The huge population, with 900 million eligible to vote and constituencies in remote, almost inaccessible areas make elections in India a very interesting spectacle. The only other nation with a population of similar size is China where sham elections are held to consolidate the power of the Communist Party. Already one opinion poll has predicted that Modi will win 264 seats out 543 seats being contested, 272 gives absolute majority. Thankfully, opinion polls have been completely off the mark since 2004 when they predicted an easy win for the BJP, only for the Congress to form the government. Exit polls are supposed to be more accurate in predicting which party is likely to win because they ask how people have actually voted, but in recent years they have been  wildly wrong as well. With 29 states and 7 union territories, speaking in at least 22 official languages and hundreds of dialects, interests of groups and regions govern the way people vote. These vary from caste to falling prices of crops, which impact farmers, to welfare schemes for the poor. Nitish Kumar is supposed to have gained women's votes by prohibiting alcohol in Bihar because women voters outnumber men. Prohibition does not stop the sale of alcoholic drinks and hurts state government finances by transforming taxes on alcohol to profits of smugglers. To neutralize the 'Modi factor' opposition parties are seeking alliances with other parties. Modi attacked this 'Mahagathbandhan', which means a 'grand alliance', as a 'Mahamilawat', which means a 'grand adulteration'. That does not stop the BJP from forming alliances with other parties where it suits it. In a cringe-making statement a politician in Tamil Nadu said that Modi is "daddy" of his party. Lies, chicanery, betrayals, back-stabbing, horse trading, can Netflix beat our elections?