Thursday, September 27, 2018

Not aspiring to be in the top 1%.

According to Goalkeepers Global Youth Outlook Poll 44% of Indians are worried about jobs, the highest in the world. 33% are worried about education but 86% are optimistic about the future. A report from the Azim Premji University said the 92% of women and 82% of men earn less than Rs 10,000, which is $139 per month or $1669 per annum. "If you earn more than Rs 50,000 a month, you are in the top 1% of the [national] work force [by earnings]," said Amit Basole, the lead author of the report. Rs 50,000 is just $694, which means $8333 per annum. Thus the top 1% in India earn the same amount as the bottom 20% in the US. Unemployment has reached 16% among educated youth. "Currently, a 10% increase in GDP results in less than 1% increase in employment." According to Okun's law a 2% increase in GDP increases the rate of employment by 1%. GDP of India grew by 8.2% in the April-June quarter this year, compared to 5.6% in the same quarter last year, which is a jump of 2.6%. Seems that job creation has not kept pace with growth in GDP. "The report uses data from Annual Survey of Industry (ASI) statistics (organised manufacturing) to show that while wages for production workers have been almost stagnant, managers' compensation started rising at a faster rate since 2000 onwards." This is without counting other compensation, such as stock options etc. "The report argues that increasing proportion of contract workers, who are paid a fraction of permanent worker wages, often for similar work, might have been a major contributor in this sector." The report classified regular employment as: "formal 1 (simple regular work), formal 2 (regular work with provident fund or pension, gratuity, healthcare/maternity benefits, or paid leave) and formal 3 (formal two with a written contract). 60% of non-agricultural jobs fell in the formal 1 category, with 30% in formal 2 and only 17% in formal 3. No wonder over 93,000 people applied for jobs as peons for the UP government, which demanded education up to Class V and ability to ride a bicycle. Of these, 3,700 had PhD degrees, 28,000 had post-graduate degrees and 50,000 were graduates. This reflects the top two worries for young people in India, jobs and education. Young people desire a salary of at least Rs 30,000 per month which probably makes them even more pessimistic about job prospects, wrote N Kwatra. The quality of jobs available does not match aspirations of young people, wrote R Kishore. Lack of opportunity as measured by Intergenerational Mobility is very low for disadvantaged social groups in India, the lowest being for Muslims. Muslims also have the highest fertility rate. Young people in India aspire for only Rs 30,000 per month, which is not in the top 1%, but they are likely to get less than Rs 10,000. Not much hope.

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