Monday, September 17, 2018

If only they could do it now?

The financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US led to widespread changes in the whole world, wrote I Bremmer. China was forced to reform its economy and Europe had to face a sovereign debt crisis in Greece. "A wave of unrest swept across North Africa and West Asia. A street vendor in Tunisia set himself on fire and within days the country's government fell. Egypt's Mubarak went to prison. Libya's Qaddafi was executed in the street. Yemen exploded into violence. Syria sank into a civil war that has killed or displaced half the country's population. Oil prices fell from $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008 towards $30 per barrel, shifting the international balance of power. The unrest in West Asia triggered a new crisis in Europe as more than two million migrants made their way north in search of safety and a better life -- transforming European politics by generating fear of insecurity and lost European identity. Angry fearful votes began to reject establishment political parties." In summary, ordinary people all over the world suffered while bankers, who created the crisis, were not only protected from prosecution but continued to earn huge bonuses. Tunisia has become a source of jihadi terrorists. The US and its allies supported terrorists in Syria with arms and money until Russia started supporting the Assad government. The sharp fall in the price of oil resulted in a sort of reverse resource curse. The Indian government increased excise duties on petroleum products to earn an extra Rs 10 trillion in the five years from 2014 to 2019. State governments joined in the loot of citizens by increasing VAT on fuel to nearly 40%. The money was used to distribute handouts to various sections of people to get their votes. Now that the price of oil has reached about $75, nowhere near the $147 per barrel as in 2008, the price of petrol at retail outlets is nearly Rs 90 per liter. Rs 6.37 trillion have been distributed to young people apparently to help them start new businesses, but could add to non-performing assets at banks warned former Governor of the Reserve Bank Raghuram Rajan. India needs to lower taxes on Air Turbine Fuel, or ATF, said the CEO of International Air Transport Association. The airlines industry in India may post losses between $1.65 and $1.90 billion. Once you start a handout it is impossible to stop it. The BJP won the assembly election in UP by promising waiver of loans to farmers. All farmers now accept that as the norm. So the Prime Minister has promised higher minimum support prices for crops. Having tied its hands the government cannot afford to provide any relief on petrol prices to the people for fear of adding to the fiscal deficit. In the US at least there is a debate about taxes. In India it is the same old story of increasing taxes in the name of alleviating poverty, classically exemplified by an income tax rate of 98.75% in 1970-71 under Indira Gandhi. They can't do that now. They would if they could. 

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