Tuesday, September 25, 2018

They were saved once, so they are at it again.

"In less than two years, my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country," said US President Donald Trump in front of the UN General Assembly yesterday. "America's economy is booming like never before. Since my election, we've added $10 trillion in wealth. The stock market is at an all-time high in history, and jobless claims are at a 50-year low. African American, Hispanic American, and Asian American unemployment have all achieved their lowest level ever recorded. We've added more than 4 million new jobs, including half a million manufacturing jobs." True, but some so-called experts are predicting a recession in two years which will be worse than the Great Depression of 1929 because of a global debt of $247 trillion. The US could be in a dire situation with national debt of $21 trillion just as Trump ends his first term. According to a study "many Americans are still piling up debt faster than savings" and "average personal debt climbed higher than $38,000". "While 20 percent of people allocate half of their income toward debt repayment, one in ten Americans surveyed said they expected to be in debt for the rest of their lives." "The main sources of debt were credit cards and mortgages, which each made up an average of 25 percent of an individual's debt." In Britain, "A subprime mortgage lender set up by former Northern Rock directors is to sell 500 million pounds of controversial mortgage backed securities..." "It says it allows up to three country court judgments and two missed mortgage payments for residential mortgages." In short, to people who have already defaulted. They clearly intend to charge exorbitant interest like the payday loan firm Wonga which charged interest at 4,000%. The US will go into a recession as the economy overheats, the Federal Reserve tightens its Funds Rate and growth in the global economy slows down, wrote Prof N Roubini and B Rosa. Stock markets are at very high levels and due for a correction. "As growth stumbles, Beijing is falling back on a tried and trusted solution: using large, government-backed companies to spur activities," wrote A Trivedi. Starving the private sector of investment did not work during imperial times and is unlikely to work now. A decade of record low interest rates has increased debt as the rich have accumulated assets through leverage financing, wrote VA Nageswaran. "As existing assets change hands, their values are bid up to unjustified levels, resulting in concentration of wealth. "Simply, risk has migrated from home mortgages to other areas that we will know about when the next crisis arrives." Things maybe going well for Trump but it is more important to finish well. He should ask "my friend PM Modi". 

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