Good luck at the wrong time, that's really bad luck.

"Two out of three governments get thrown out in India," wrote R Sharma. "In America, the number is just the opposite, two out of the three get elected." He is talking about state and central governments combined. "The moment they are in office you can see the arrogance building, they are surrounded by 100 sycophants around them, everyone is praising them....they live in a bubble that people are following them." "Those states where the growth rate was more than 8 percent for the five year period -- which is very high growth rate -- do these governments get re-elected? There are 30 such cases in India only where you had growth rate over 8 percent over the five-year time and the answer was 50:50." Depends on luck and reasons for growth in GDP. Initially there was good luck for Prime Minister Modi. The price of crude oil dropped from over $100 per barrel in May 2014, when he was elected, to around $30 a barrel in February 2016 which reduced current account deficit and allowed the government to collect an extra Rs 10 trillion by raising excise duty on petrol and diesel at least 11 times in 3 years. This extra money was extremely useful to cover bad luck as India suffered severe back to back droughts in 2014 and 15. "International food prices decreased by 14% between August 2014 and My 2015, dropping to a five-year low, according to the latest edition of Food Price Watch," wrote group from the World Bank. Wheat plunged by 18%, rice by 14% and maize by 6%. Agricultural exports from India declined to $33.87 billion in 2016-17 from $43.23 billion in 2013-14. Farmers faced severe distress as food prices declined and their earnings fell below costs. The government resorted to waiver of loans to placate farmers but Prof Himanshu wrote that this is not enough. Financial support of farmers is necessary but long term solutions include building infrastructure for the changing nature of crops as farmers switch from grains to horticulture. Increased tax collection and lower inflation encouraged Modi to administer a sudden shock to the nation by withdrawing all high denomination notes. The agricultural and informal sectors suffered the most as they deal almost exclusively in cash. The government was able to stimulate growth to 8.2% in the quarter ending 30 June by increasing spending. Most of the growth was due to a jump in private consumption which increased imports and the current account deficit, wrote M Chakravarty. This is when bad luck in the form of rising oil prices has complicated matters. A jump in trade deficit has resulted in a fall in the value of the rupee. A weaker rupee makes oil even more expensive for citizens. But the government cannot cut taxes on fuel without losing control of budget deficit. The only solution to the problems is to reduce growth rate, wrote J Aziz. The actual problem is that good luck came before bad. If only it had been the other way round.