What if Asia and Africa replace Europe and the US?

"The fear generated by Wall Street's sharp fall has been greatly magnified by the calm that preceded it," wrote R Sharma. "Before the 8% decline in Untied States stocks over the past week, the S&P 500 had gone two years without suffering a drop that large." Optimists think that the global economy can still grow at 4%, like after World War II, but that was because of the postwar baby boom. Birth rate is falling. Fewer workers leads to higher wages, which leads to higher inflation because of higher demand. People in the US are spending more. "The United States savings rate has fallen to 2.4%, from the post-crisis peaks well over 6%. Consumer credit card debt is rising." There are warnings of a Minsky moment because central banks have not only poured enormous liquidity into markets but have soothed them into believing that any change will be slow and gentle, wrote M Chakravarty. It is true that population is falling in western countries but the global population is growing at an average of 83 million per year and is forecast to reach around 10 billion by 2050. The economy of Africa is forecast to grow at 4%, with some countries growing at over 8%, wrote Prof K Basu. India is forecast to grow at 7% this financial year and at 7.6% in 2019-20. Of course Asia and Africa cannot replace the US and Europe in the near future. GDP of the US was a $19 trillion in 2017, while that of Europe in 2017 was $17 trillion. China was $12 trillion in 2017, that of Japan was nearly $5 trillion, India was at $2.5 trillion and South Korea at $1.5 trillion. Nominal GDP of Asia was $27 trillion in 2016 while Africa was $3.3 in 2017. A lot of catching up to do but gradual change is better. Then there is Artificial Intelligence, or AI, and robotics. No one knows how many jobs will be gained or lost by AI. Delhi Metro has already started running trains without any human drivers. Despite a shrinking population and an unemployment rate of just 2.8% Japan has increased its manufacturing through technology and retraining. Jobs will be lost in waves and not all at once, a study suggests. "The factory of the future will have two employees a man and a dog. The man's job will be to feed the dog. The dog's job will be to prevent the man from touching any of the automated equipment," said Warren Bennis. It will not be as dire as that, as educated people will command high salaries to keep the machines in order. Automation could increase productivity and economic growth but, with fewer high paid jobs, inequality could rocket. A small population could well be a boon.