Wednesday, February 28, 2018

If it wins elections why change?

India's Gross National Product, which is the total of goods and services produced, has gone up to 7.2% in the third quarter of the financial year, which is from October to December. This makes our growth faster than that of China which grew at 6.8%. Of course, 6.8% of an $11.2 trillion economy is a lot more than 7.2% of a $2.3 trillion, but still it is cause for boasting. Manufacturing grew at 8.1% in the third quarter, although the Purchasing Managers' Index for February for manufacturing fell to 52.1, which is still positive. The real cause for cheer is that Gross Fixed Capital Formation, which indicates new investment, has jumped and is expected to reach 7.6% for the full year. The core sector of cement, electricity, coal, refinery products and steel grew 6.7% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. So, Patiala pegs all round? Current Account Deficit is predicted to go up to 2.7% of GDP in the third quarter. It is hard to understand how the economy can be growing if it is losing around $60 billion to other countries. Trouble is that governments have been suppressing crucial economic data since 2000, wrote Prof Himanshu. While previous governments stopped publishing data on poverty, health and inequality, this government stopped collection of data regarding employment. Apparently, 87,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing from April to June, 64,000 jobs were added in service industries, mainly in health and education. If manufacturing grew so well why are imports of finished goods rising while exports have been falling, despite strong economic growth in the global economy. The World Bank is predicting a slowdown in the global economic growth rate because of a slowdown in investments and output. If our exports have been falling and trade deficit ballooning during strong growth our current account deficit will surely increase when global growth slows. After touching a record of $70.4 billion in 2014, remittances from Indians working abroad fell to $62.7 billion in 2016 but increased to $65.4 billion last year. As the US  and countries in the Middle East tighten immigration rules this is expected to fall in the future, wrote SI Rajan. With an eye on general elections next year the government increased customs duty on a whole range of goods, which will harm exports because of more expensive inputs, wrote R Subramanya. One way of creating jobs is by increasing government spending on various projects, such as highways, but that needs money. The government has asked tax officials to administer a white knuckle squeeze on taxpayers to increase collections by Rs 250 billion. Every year tax burden on the honest is increased while the crooks go free, wrote Pai and Krishnan. They are following the successful strategy of winning elections. Can you blame them?

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