Monday, February 12, 2018

NOTA is not a small candidate.

"An increasing number of 'small candidates' -- defined here somewhat arbitrarily as those whose vote shares remain below 2% of the total vote -- compete in assembly elections across India. The numbers of such candidates on the ballot have steadily increased for the past two decades," wrote Prof S Chauchard and H Wanole. From 2102 to 2017, an average of almost 8 candidates received less than 2% of votes in each assembly seat, compared to less than 3 candidates from 1997 to 2001. While this maybe celebrated as a triumph of democracy, major parties see these candidates as 'vote-cutters' whose share of votes may have made the difference when the margin of victory is small. The authors have ignored NOTA, or None Of The Above, option that was introduced 2013 in all elections. NOTA would have qualified as a major candidate in Bihar elections in 2015 where it registered 2.48% of votes. In Gujarat elections last year NOTA may have received only 1.8% of total votes cast, but it came third in 115 out of 182 constituencies. In Godhra the BJP candidate defeated his Congress rival by only 258 votes, while NOTA received 3,050, enough to have made a difference. In Dholka the winning margin was 327 votes, with NOTA getting 2,347, while in Vijapur the winning margin was 1,164, less than 1,280 received by NOTA. After analysing the effect of NOTA on elections, VR Vachana and M Roy conclude that NOTA scores high in seats where caste is a factor, where development is lacking and where there is a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress, showing dissatisfaction with both major parties. What about small candidates, why do they bother standing for elections when defeat is certain? The deposit was raised to Rs 10,000 in 1996 to deter frivolous candidates but today it is of little value. A major party candidate may ask one of her supporters, from the same caste as her opponent, to stand to take away some of his votes, others stand in anger for having been denied a ticket, while others hope to get a ticket in the next election if they do well enough. Getting elected is a guaranteed way to multiply wealth by over 500% in a 5-year term, as the Supreme Court discovered. Getting elected makes a person a VIP and, since the police are controlled by politicians, it brings a certain amount of immunity. Major parties welcome criminals because they have the money and the goons to win. So, we see an average of 3 policemen protecting VIPs while there are few to protect us. Historian Ramachandra Guha found a lot of similarity between Indira Gandhi and the present Prime Minister Modi. Maybe one day NOTA will be largest party in parliament.

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