Monday, February 05, 2018

Is there a number for perception?

There is an enormous difference in the way economists and common people view India's economic progress, wrote A Maira. Economists look at the data. "These economists talk about people as if they are numbers. And they present a picture of progress in numbers which people do not understand and that do not relate to the realities of their lives." "They are no comfort to an Indian farmer contemplating suicide because he cannot make ends meet, or to a young graduate willing to do even a peon's job because he cannot get any other." In December, Gopalan and Singhi analysed data from the Labour Bureau and came to the conclusion that "India's jobless growth is a myth". They found that the rate of job creation between 2009 and 2016 was 3.2%, considerably higher than the 2.4% growth in the number job seekers, so that unemployment declined. A total of 75 million jobs were created, compared to 61 million job seekers. In January, Ghosh and Ghosh analysed Employees Provident Fund and National Pension Scheme data and concluded that 15 million jobs are added every year. Around 100 million people are employed in the formal sector. On the other hand, Prof V Dahejia wrote that employment elasticity of economic growth has been declining in India in line with the world, and Prof G Singh wrote that more than half the workers in India are self employed, which does not mean that they are entrepreneurs, but that they are just trying to survive. Naturally, the Labour Ministry wants to add the self-employed to the overall jobs number, to make the figure more respectable. When politicians and civil servants are convinced that most people are employed they are naturally perplexed at the low number of people who pay income tax. So, are Indians a nation of tax dodgers? No, say Kundu and Bhattacharya who show that our tax/GDP ratio is 17.23, lower than Brazil at 23.82, but higher than the US at 6.90. When adjusted for income levels our tax/GDP ratio is respectable when compared to developing and developed countries. But it looks different on the ground. P Agrawal is angry that he is paying 60% of his income in taxes but gets nothing in return from the government. Labor is fungible and will move to where rewards are higher. Last year 7,000 high net worth individuals, those with more than $1 million in wealth, moved out of India. So it is with inflation. Salunkhe and Patnaik wrote that inflation expectations are related to the Phillips curve. People don't know what that means but they can compare prices when they shop. It is not about numbers, but about perception. Maybe that is why Indians are so unhappy.

No comments: