Thursday, February 01, 2018

Cranberry juice once again?

Like every year there were discussions, suggestions and feverish speculation before the budget and a collapse in excitement, like a punctured balloon, as the Finance Minister delivered his speech. As always more handouts were announced for the 'vote bank', to be paid for by higher taxes on the middle class. Farmers to be paid 1.5 times the production cost of their crops, Kisan credit card to be extended to fisheries, 80 million women to get free cooking gas connections, 40 million to get power connections, 10 million rural houses to be built, 20 million toilets to be built in rural areas, 500 million to get free healthcare costing up to Rs 500,000 in hospitals, 1 medical college for every 3 parliamentary constituencies, even Santa Claus does not shower so many goodies. Rs 12.6 trillion was outstanding on agricultural loans till September 2016. How to pay for all this? Education cess to be increased by 1% on income tax we pay. A 10% tax on long term capital gains from sale of shares will be levied, in addition to Securities Transaction Tax. Customs duty has been increased on mobile phones, televisions, car parts and edible oils. The poor should be satisfied with basic living and not aspire to anything more. Allocation to defence has been increased by 5.91% but spending has actually dropped to 1.58% of GDP, the lowest since 1962, the year we got hammered by China. This despite the fact that our army has been losing one soldier every third day for the last 13 years. Increase in customs duty was apparently to protect Indian industries from cheaper products from abroad. Isn't this known as 'countervailing duties'. But we were given to understand that all cesses and additional customs duty would be subsumed in the Goods and Services Tax. Clearly they can be unsubsumed at the whim of the Finance Minister. Magician! After an earlier scheme poor people have been unable to refill their gas cylinders which they received for free. Cranberry juice must be very important because a previous Finance Minister reduced customs duty on it from 30% to 10% in 2011-12, while yesterday it was hiked up to 50% from 10%. Senior citizens will not have to pay tax on interest on fixed deposits of up to Rs 50,000 and can deduct Rs 50,000 for medical insurance from income, wrote M Halan. All this extra spending means that fiscal deficit will be 3.5%, instead of 3.2%, this year and 3.3%, instead of 3%, next year, as had been promised previously. The government will raise Rs 800 billion from sale of public sector enterprises. It raised Rs 1 trillion this year. But the stock market was at record highs last year and this may not be the case this year. However, not every rich person will lose out. Handouts to politicians will be doubled and every 5 years. They will be able to afford cranberry juice. Thank God.

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