Friday, December 01, 2017

Not easy to be easy in business, in India.

In an essay on "Credit ratings, GST and the ease of doing business", Prof I Rajaraman wrote, "In financial terms, the rating upgrade does not make a huge difference. It was more in the nature of a follower action to the confidence reposed in India by global investors, after nearly 14 years of no upgrades, with an interlude in 2012 when there was a threat of downgrade." Credit ratings are not that important, as shown by the bond yields which fell to a low of 6.94% and then returned to 7.05% almost immediately, wrote Rangan and Rebello. "A 2102 study of 314 rating changes dating back to 1970 by Bloomberg showed that in almost half the instances, yields on government bonds fall when a rating action by Moody's Investors Service and S&P suggests they should climb, or they increased even as a change signals a decline." India has jumped 30 places in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index. It should be "The ease of undoing business in India" wrote VA Nageswaran, who described how customs officials at Chennai classified solar panels as "DC generators" and slapped an import duty of 7.5% on them. To help business the government has to understand conditions on the ground. Pollution in Delhi is partly due to burning of stubble in Punjab. There is a proposal to buy up the stubble as an incentive to farmers, but if farmers are burning stubble to eradicate pests, so that they do not affect future crops, they will not listen. While Moody's increased our rating S&P kept it at the lowest grade of BBB-, because "S&P raised concern over increasing fiscal deficit and debt burden, saying the country's fiscal challenges coupled with low per capita income and high debt also reflect the country's underperformance". The government has already used up 96% of fiscal deficit in the first half of the year, till the end of September, while GDP growth has bounced back up to 6.3% in the second quarter from 5.7% in the first. But, there are sceptics. GDP growth may have picked up but private consumption growth is down in real terms and government consumption growth has fallen from 17% to 4%, the government cannot increase spending as it wants to restrict fiscal deficit to 3.2%, export has fallen to 19% of GDP, while import remains strong, and oil prices are unlikely to fall in the near future, wrote Aurodeep. Nissan wants arbitration on its demand for $770 million in tax incentives apparently promised by the Tamil Nadu government. Nokia shut down its factory in Tamil Nadu in 2014 because of tax issues and Formula One dropped India from its racing calendar because of tax disputes. Jaypee group which built the circuit defaulted on its debt. Not easy to be easy in business, s it?

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