Saturday, December 30, 2017

As long as it is not much worse.

J Tolentino wrote a long list of reasons why 2016 was probably the worst year ever, because of the North Pole being hotter, human rights abuses in Turkey and deaths of innocent civilians in Aleppo, but the main reason for her was the election victory of Donald Trump. She expected hate crimes and Swastikas everywhere. "Power is accruing everywhere to the hard and heartless right," she wrote in anger. That is to imply that the left is soft and cuddly. 2017  was the centenary of the October revolution which created the Soviet Union. Socialism, collectivizing private property and central planning can be imposed only through extreme coercion, wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. "It is this level of violence, economic and social coercion that has become the lasting legacy of communism." The war in Syria is almost over. Does that mean and end to terrorism? Absolutely not, but the reconstruction of Syria can begin. Will it? The defeat of ISIS is a victory for Iran whose forces and militia, the Hezbollah, were fighting for Assad. Iraq also announced victory over ISIS but that was also with the help of Iran and Shia militia. Now Iran has extended its influence over an enormous territory with long borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran's Supreme Leader was called a 'new Hitler' by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. In the last 3 days protests have broken out all over Iran, calling for more jobs, improved living conditions and the removal of the regime. If Europe wants to stop the deluge of migrants from Syria and even repatriate some of the refugees, it should start the process of rebuilding Syria on a war footing. Otherwise far right parties will gain more support from the people. The Austrian Freedom Party is part of the new coalition in Austria, and the Alternative for Germany Party won seats in the German parliament. Angela Merkel has been unable to form a government and Germany may see new elections to solve the deadlock. Donald Trump is still there despite a vitriolic campaign against him. The US economy grew by 3.3% in the third quarter and may grow even faster if corporate tax cuts stimulate new investments. The global stock markets are within touching distance of $100 trillion valuation for the first time, with very low volatility, and European government bonds offer negative returns. China used debt to take over large chunks of assets in vulnerable countries. Pakistan plans to become a vassal state of China by agreeing to use the yuan instead of the dollar. As for India, politicians will argue about growth rate while pleading for low interest rates. There will be more handouts to prepare for general elections in 2019 and the government will become more intrusive and despotic about collecting taxes. In short, 2018 promises to be more of the same. A Happy New Year to the world.

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