Friday, December 15, 2017

Jugaad in economics?

Korea is the first country in Asia to tighten interest rate from 1.25% to 1.5% in keeping with its "hurry, hurry" culture, wrote W Pesek. "...Korea is among the closest things the region has to a canary in the proverbial coalmine. When global trade runs out of gas, Korea tends to be the first major economy to flash warning signs. The same goes for when the economic tank is being refilled." Getting back to normal monetary policy will be risky but Asia is ready. In the past 20 years the region has been "strengthening financial systems, increasing transparency, building up currency reserves, tightening corporate governance and reducing crony capitalism". So we can relax? Unfortunately, a report by the World Bank highlighted "the divergence of winners and losers is growing dangerously acute among workers", wrote Pesek. Inequality is increasing. Why? Because after the "taper tantrum" in 2013 Asian nations resorted to economic stimulus which left the poor behind. So, what about India? The rupee slumped to 68.85 to the dollar at one point in August 2013, before finding support. "Here Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel deserves a shout-out for holding his fire on 6 December. Despite two members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic advisory council arguing real interest rats are too high, Patel's team kept the benchmark at 6%. Cutting rates would've taken pressure off Modi to get busy addressing land, labour and tax laws undermining growth." Although, "We are in a period of high political uncertainty both at home and abroad", the World Economic Outlook, or WEO, of the IMF predicts 3.6% growth in global GDP, wrote Prof S Mundle. The WEO also forecast that the EU will grow at 2.2%, the US higher than 2.2%, Japan by 1.5% and China by 6.8% in 2017, all higher than in 2016. India is mixed, with exports, government and private consumption expenditures and growth rate falling, but gross fixed capital formation increasing, which could herald a revival. Even though October was a festival month, sale of consumer durables fell by 7%, mining was stagnant and manufacturing was weak, wrote an editorial in The Hindu. Retail inflation climbed to 4.88% in November and oil prices are a worry. The International Energy Agency forecast a glut in oil inventories in 2018, which is an enormous relief, unless of course, the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia spills over. C Ahya and D Kam enumerate a list of reasons why investments by the private sector should improve in 2018 . Seems like everyone is guessing. 'Jugaad' is the biggest business activity in India, so why not jugaad in economics?

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