Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Is it a job if it doesn't pay?

"India's jobless growth is a myth," wrote R Gopalan and MC Singhi. They examine data from the National Sample Survey Office, or NSSO, and the Labour Bureau which showed that from 1993-94 to 2011-12 employment growth averaged 1.1% per annum which was lower than the number of people joining the workforce. Unemployment levels stayed at low levels because fewer people were willing to work. "Labour Bureau data indicates that between 2009-10 and 2015-16 incremental jobs created exceeded the number of people who entered the labour force by a wide margin. At an aggregate level, 75 million jobs were created, against 61 million who were added to the list of jobs seekers." Examining the same set of figures R Kapoor comes to exactly opposite conclusion. "Our study confirms the languid pace of job creation in India over the last few years," she wrote. Total employment declined from 480.4 million in 2013-14 to 467.6 million in 2015-16. Employment in retail went up from 43.7 million to 48.1 million but employment in manufacturing fell from 51.4 million to 48.1 million. The difference maybe because Kapoor examined a shorter timescale and because "Most of the workers, 84% of all, whether self-employed, regular wage earners, contract workers or casual workers, were getting an income of less than Rs 10,000 per month". Majority was doing whatever they could to survive. "Enough work was also not available for nearly 40% of workers; they were being employed for only a part of the year." The ICE 360 survey showed that only 20% of workers are salaried, but 71% of them do not have a written contract. The crisis is especially hard in farming. "Some 50% of Indians depend on agriculture, but agriculture accounts for only 15% of our GDP," wrote R Jagannathan. The late Sharad Joshi argued for a "Marshall Plan" for farmers, wherein he proposed an end to subsidies and to all the laws that restrict farmers from selling their land and exporting their products and market prices for farm produce, including a futures market. Trouble is, food inflation is lethal for winning elections. N Bhargava fears that humans will have to compete with robots for jobs. Campus placements show a rise for 2018 but these are graduates of top colleges, so a tiny elite among job-seekers, and many of the enquiries are from abroad. Jobs maybe lacking but salaries of those in regular employment have been climbing, increasing inequality between employed and unemployed and between CEOs and employees at lower levels. Clearly, people need jobs. But first we need correct figures.

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