Monday, August 14, 2017

Why do people seem to have forgotten basic maths?

A state owned Chinese newspaper, The Global Times, warned India of a trade war after India imposed anti-dumping duties on 93 products imported from China. Because of the confrontation in Doklam there has been a call to boycott Chinese goods in India but that has not stopped imports from China increasing by 33% in the April-June quarter of this year. "It is the Indian economy that will suffer because of the boycott," the paper warned. How? India's exports to China fell by 11.75% last year while our trade deficit with that country increased to $52 billion. So, surely we have less to lose? But, India need not feel lonely. Another government mouthpiece, the China Daily, warned the US that any attempt to reduce the trade deficit with China "could trigger a trade war". Last year the US suffered a trade deficit of $347 billion with China. This year the deficit is already more than $170 billion. Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into Chinese infringement of US intellectual property rights, which could be anything up to $600 billion. The Director of National Intelligence estimates that the US loses up to $400 billion every year through official hacking of US companies. Although, US officials have been warning of theft of intellectual property for a long time, China has merrily continued to do so because there are those in the US, just like many in India, who seem to be terrified of a trade war with China. William Pesek wrote that China will retaliate by devaluing the yuan sharply, dump US treasuries, levy taxes on Walmart and Apple and cancel orders for Boeing planes, resulting in the loss of 180,000 American jobs. That is just so much froth. If China dumps US treasuries the yuan will rise, if it cancels orders for Boeing it will have to pay a lot more to Airbus and if it levies taxes on US firms its exports will drop like a stone. China not only steals trade secrets it actively creates barriers to imports so that it earns a huge trade surplus year after year, wrote Michael Schuman. China deliberately uses trade as a weapon, wrote Prof Brahma Chellaney. Surprisingly, Chinese expats living and working in the US, like Prof Yasheng Huang, also support China's violation of all trade protocol and rules. China's financial sector is in a mess, wrote Prof Zhang Jun, and the government is trying to control it without bringing it down altogether. So how does China get away with threatening every country even though it has more to lose? Probably because people in other countries forget basic maths out of self interest.

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